【周末荐读】David Marsh：当前世界多元货币储备体系与“冷战”的相似之处（附英文原文）

观点速递本文由IMI学术委员、货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）联席主席David Marsh撰写。文章借用“冷战”时期世界各国博弈之后世界格局趋于稳定的特点，重点阐述了作者对于当前世界多元货币储备体系不稳定性的看法。文章指出，当前世界多元货币储备体系的不稳定性主要是由于各主要的储备货币发行国之间独立的、非合作的金融和经济体系所造成的。但是，也正是由于这样的相互独立的决策方式，目前储备体系当中不同货币的波动可能在一定程度上相互抵消，从而最终达到一种相对的稳定状态。所以作者认为，人们不必对当前世界多元货币储备体系的不稳定性过于担忧。之后，文章又分别对人民币和欧元目前主要面临的主要不稳定因素进行了分析。对于人民币，文章认为自2015年10月人民币正式加入SDR以来，人民币汇率面临的不稳定因素主要来自于，中国经济发展速度的放缓以及中国高层是否会持续的推动人民币汇率形成机制的市场化；对于欧元，文章指出，欧洲已经在一定程度上成为一些世界上最大的经常账户盈余的来源。欧洲各国经济发展的巨大差异将是造成未来欧元不稳定的主要因素。 英文原文如下：

LONDON — The world’s multicurrency reserve system now shaping up is likely to be significantly more volatile than the de facto arrangement linking the dollar and Deutsche mark that existed until 1999, and the dollar-euro system that has existed since then.

This doesn’t mean that we are likely to see currency fluctuations as extreme as the near-doubling of the dollar against the D-mark between 1979 (when the U.S. moved to extreme monetary tightening under Fed Chairman Paul Volcker) and the early 1980s. The Volcker squeeze was responsible for the political demise of Jimmy Carter in the U.S., Valery Giscard d’Estaing in France and Helmut Schmidt in Germany.

What we will see is radical multiple uncertainty caused by the oscillations of five major reserve currencies — the dollar, euro, yen, sterling  and renminbi  — each subject to the vagaries of their independent and uncoordinated financial and economic systems.

This need not be vastly unsettling. Indeed, it could be that, after some currency swings, the system will become relatively stable, with offsetting ups and downs of currencies and economic cycles. There may be some resemblance to the MIRV multiple-warhead nuclear missiles deployed by the U.S. and Soviet Union (and to a lesser extent by Britain, France and China) during the hot phase of the Cold War in the 1970s.

Denis Healey, U.K. defense secretary during part of this time, used to say, in the best spirit of nuclear deterrence, that uncertainty associated with the delightfully named multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles was stabilizing because the adversary would be perpetually on tenterhooks. No one knew exactly which cities were targeted or indeed whether all the warheads were armed.

On the other hand, if communications went awry, signals were misunderstood, or reckless politicians and foolish advisers took control, the accumulation of nuclear tinder could have led to destruction putting the first two world wars in the shade. The same is true of the annihilation that could take place if today’s monetary commanders veer too far off course.

Some fundamental fears about the safety of the monetary system focus on China. Beijing has won a battle to bring the yuan into the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right from Oct. 1. Joining the other four main reserve currencies brings kudos and economic benefits. But it presupposes that the Chinese government can continue liberalization, both internally and in external interactions, without unduly disrupting Communist Party control.

Chinese leaders have pressed ahead with technocratic reforms in areas like foreign-exchange trading and interest rates but have hesitated to interfere with more overtly politicized parts of the economy, such as state-owned enterprises, the disorderly unwinding of which could have currency repercussions.

As Ravi Menon, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, noted in a lecture sponsored by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London on May 5, China is juggling three balls at the same time: “grappling with the challenge of managing a growth slowdown, addressing vulnerabilities in its financial system, and implementing structural reforms.”

The other big imponderable is the euro area.

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, said correctly in Frankfurt last week that the euro is at the center of a “global excess of savings”, reflected in the large current-account surpluses of its principal creditor members, Germany and the Netherlands. Taking into account the sizeable surpluses of other noneuro countries such as Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland whose currencies are part of the wider euro area (and would undoubtedly join if weaker countries left), Europe is home to some of the world’s largest current-account surpluses.

This is especially striking now that large Middle East oil exporters have moved into deficit.

The euro is too weak for the German, Dutch and Swiss economies, but too strong for the southern members trying to recover from debts and unemployment — not a good signal for euro stability in coming years. With euro interest rates expected to remain low indefinitely, the high point for the euro’s role in monetary reserves may have occurred in 2009. According to International Monetary Fund figures, its share of official foreign-exchange holdings has slipped since then by more than 8 percentage points, from 28% to 19.9%.

观点整理：景麟德图文编辑：聂思宇

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