海外之声｜墨西哥央行副行长：为何多元货币体系更为强大（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者是墨西哥央行副行长贾维尔·古兹曼·卡拉费尔，本文节选自2016年10月6日卡拉费尔在华盛顿国际货币金融机构官方论坛—储备咨询管理署（OMFIF-RAMP）研讨会上发表的讲话。本文原文摘自货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）出版的《Bulletin》2016年11月刊。OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

作者提出，当前新兴经济体占全球GDP约60%，增长率有望持续大幅高于发达经济体，新兴市场货币理应在全球储备资产构成中扮演更重要的角色，尤其是人民币被寄予了厚望。作者认更多元化的国际货币体系将会变得更强大。多种类的国际货币能让总的投资组合多样化，从而减少风险。而且多币种储备体系下，资产和汇率持续估值过高带来的风险也可能会降低。但多种储备货币体系并非没有缺点，虽然面临着各种挑战，长期来看多币种体系的优势还是大于其潜在劣势。

中文译文如下：

为何多元货币体系更为强大

作者：贾维尔·古兹曼·卡拉费尔

翻译：张译文

审校：肖柏高

央行对将国际储备投资到由更多种货币计价的资产中显示出越来越大的兴趣。这反映出央行在低利率环境下更积极地寻求收益以及渴望多样化其资产。

一种货币要成为国际货币要满足三个条件：第一，外国的私人或政府机构投资者认为该货币是一种可靠的价值储藏手段，愿意持有这类货币资产；第二，这种货币在全球交易中是有效交换媒介，在全球商品服务贸易结算人们愿意主动使用；三，无论是商业流动还是资金流动，这种货币都被广泛视为是一种计价单位。

“

“最重要的”货币：美元

目前，只有几种货币的国际资产地位毋庸置疑，其中美元占最主导地位。国际货币基金组织数据显示，美元占全球外汇储备的比重为63%，是它最主要竞争对手欧元的三倍多。国际清算银行曾指出，美元的身影遍及全球90%的外汇交易。

虽然新货币已经加入国际储备，但大部分货币都不能满足成为国际货币的条件。除了美元、欧元、英镑和日元，国际储备中其他货币比重共占7%。如果再将瑞士法郎、澳元和加元排除在外，那么其他货币比重仅为3%。

美国在世界货币储备中占主导地位

几种货币共占主导地位似乎与世界经济的发展态势格格不入。新兴经济体占全球GDP约60%，增长率有望持续大幅高于发达经济体。因此，似乎有理由期待新兴市场货币在全球储备资产构成中扮演更重要的角色。

货币发行国的经济规模只是决定该货币国际化的一个因素。该经济体在贸易网络中地位、宏观经济和金融稳定性、本国市场的流动性和开放程度及货币可兑换也是主要影响因素。

在新兴市场货币中，人民币似乎最有可能坐稳一个重要地位。这不仅是因为中国在世界经济中的地位，也因为中国当局对人民币国际化感兴趣。

中国金融市场逐步开放，人民币纳入IMF特别提款权货币篮子，中国也在就货币互换协议谈判，这一切都表明中国对人民币国际化的兴趣。然而，中国还远远无法满足人民币成为国际货币所需的所有条件。

巩固人民币成为国际货币需要长期努力。另外，国际货币体系更多元化后能否变得更强大还是个问题。我认为答案是肯定的。

“

一个稳固高效的体系

经济体的宏观经济和金融状况越稳定、贸易越开放、资本市场流动性越强，整个货币体系便越稳固高效。多种类的国际货币能让总的投资组合多样化，从而减少风险。而且多币种储备体系下，资产和汇率持续估值过高带来的风险也可能会降低。

那些发行储备的国家也将获得更均等的好处，比如铸币税、较低的负债利率以及降低全球持续外部失衡带来的风险。

不过，多币种储备体系也并不是没有缺点，人民币国际化就是例子。人民币国际化需要中国金融市场对外汇交易全面开放，并且转向浮动汇率制度。这些举措可能对给中国国内经济和全球金融体系带来意想不到的后果。

其他国家进行金融和汇率自由化时可能会经历一段动荡时期。

无视向国际货币转型带来的挑战，即使在多币种储备体系下，投资组合突然变化、汇率持续不稳的风险也将不会消失。由于货币可替代性提高，多币种储备体系可能还会导致更严重的短期资本流动动荡和汇率调整。货币国际化可能还会引发其他风险，如对货币总量的控制减少。

虽然面临着各种挑战，长期来看多币种体系的优势还是大于其潜在劣势。

英文原文如下：

Why a multicurrency system is stronger

by Javier Guzmán Calafell

Central banks have shown increasing interest in investing their international reserves in assets denominated in a wider array of currencies. This reflects partly a more active search for yield in a low interest rate environment and a desire to diversify.

To attain international status, a currency must be seen as a reliable store of value by private and official non-residents, implying that they are willing to hold assets in that currency. It has to be considered an efficient medium of exchange for international transactions, reflected in its active use in the settlement of global trade of goods and services. It should be widely regarded as a unit of account, whether for commercial or financial flows.

Dollar ‘most important’ currency
At present only a few currencies are treated as undoubtedly international assets, the dollar being the most important. According to the International Monetary Fund,the dollar accounts for 63% of all allocated foreign exchange reserves, more than three times its nearest competitor, the euro. As the Bank for International Settlements has noted, the dollar is involved in around 90% of all foreign exchange transactions.

While new currencies have been added to the stock of international reserves, most do not meet the requirements to be a global currency. Excluding the dollar, euro, pound and yen, the share of other currencies in global international reserves amounts to around 7%. When the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar are excluded, other currencies account for just 3%.

The predominance of a handful of currencies appears incompatible with developments in the world economy. Emerging market economies account for nearly 60% of world GDP. Growth rates are expected to remain significantly higher than in advanced economies. It therefore seems reasonable to expect emerging market currencies to play a more important role in the composition of international reserve assets.

The economic size of an issuing country is only one determinant of a currency’s internationalisation. An economy’s role in trade networks, macroeconomic and financial stability, the liquidity and openness of national markets, and the stability and convertibility of its currency are also major contributing factors.

Among emerging market currencies, the renminbi appears most likely to secure a significant role. This is partly in view of China’s position in the world economy, but also because of the Chinese authorities’ interest in renminbi internationalisation.

This has been illustrated by the gradual opening of Chinese financial markets to foreign participation, the renminbi´s inclusion in the IMF’s special drawing 
right basket, and China’s negotiation of currency swap agreements. However, China is still far from meeting all of the conditions to provide the renminbi with international status.

The race to consolidate the renminbi as a global currency should be viewed as a long-term endeavour. Moreover, the question remains whether a monetary system with more international currencies would be stronger than the present one. I believe it would be.

A sound and efficient system

The more economies with macroeconomic and financial stability which are open to trade and have liquid capital markets, the more the system as a whole will be sound and efficient. A greater number of international currencies entails greater possibilities to diversify overall portfolio risk. A multicurrency reserve system may reduce the risk of persistent overvaluation of assets, including exchange rates.

Countries’ role as reserve issuers will also gain a more evenly distributed range of benefits, such as seigniorage gains and lower interest rates on debt, as well as a reduced risk of major and persistent global external imbalances.

Nevertheless, a multicurrency reserve system is not free from difficulties, as the case of renminbi internationalisation illustrates. The process requires a comprehensive opening of China’s financial markets to foreign transactions, as well as a floating exchange rate. Such moves may have unintended consequences for both the domestic economy and the global financial system. Financial and exchange rate liberalisation in other countries may be accompanied by periods of turbulence.

Irrespective of the challenges of a transition towards international status, the risks of sudden portfolio shifts and exchange rate volatility will not disappear under a multicurrency reserve system. Such a system may lead to greater short-term capital flow volatility and exchange rate adjustments as a result of the increased substitutability of currencies. Currency internationalisation may give rise to other risks, such as reduced control over monetary aggregates.

Notwithstanding these challenges, the benefits of a wider availability of global currencies should outweigh the potential costs in the long term.

Javier Guzmán Calafell is Deputy Governor of the Banco de México. 

文章整理 张晨希

图文编辑 张晨希

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