海外之声 | 捷克央行前行长：从捷克克朗脱钩欧元看央行如何有效与市场沟通（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者是米罗斯拉夫·辛格，捷克中央银行前行长、货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）顾问委员和Generali CEE Holdings机构事务部总监兼首席经济学家。原文摘自OMFIF评论，OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

作者提出，克朗脱欧后的平稳发展成功表明较小经济体的央行能有效引导外汇市场，而小幅度的波动明显对经济正常运行十分有益。尽管人们普遍认为货币干预的退出由央行秘密进行会收到较好的政策效果，捷克国家银行取得的成功否定了这个看法，证明央行清晰的沟通使实体经济能够做好准备迎接变化，增强了央行的可信度。

中文译文如下：

央行的沟通应具备清晰度

——捷克克朗脱钩欧元为何有效？

米罗斯拉夫·辛格

翻译：程六一

审校：肖柏高

自两年前瑞士央行突然宣布瑞士法郎与欧元脱钩以来，瑞郎经历了几次巨大的波动。其汇率在脱钩的第一天升值超过40%，据此许多人预计捷克克朗此次也会经历类似的情况。然而，克朗在与欧元脱钩之后汇率仅小幅上升，对欧元的汇率仅上升了1.6%。之前捷克克朗的升值上限维持在1欧元对27克朗，从4月6日开始，这个上限被取消。

这种小幅度的波动有利于实体经济，因其减少了公司、投资者以及消费者所面临的不确定性，使他们的购买和投资更加安全。

克朗汇率的平稳发展对于其他准备退出非常规货币政策的央行来说有参考价值。当大家普遍认为货币干预的退出最好是在秘密中进行时，这一点尤为明显。此外这种参考价值还可以从瑞士国家银行3月份发布的年度报告显示的干预数据中更为明显地看出。

尽管瑞士央行拥有全欧最低的政策利率（为-0.75％），但其一直无法阻挡国内实体经济增速放缓（增速仍然下降了约三分之一），也无法避免再一次的干预。这些干预措施的数量几乎足以迫使央行取消汇率下限限制，这不仅有损实体经济，也对央行自身的信誉不利。

捷克国家银行采用了两种主要的沟通手段，一种是有条件地指出取消汇率的明确期限，另一种是无条件地保证在这一期限内继续实行汇率下限（直至2017年第一季度末）。在两场货币政策会议期间，之前确定的这一期限并未改变，因此金融市场可以确信汇率下限的限制即将结束。

央行的透明度和清晰度大有裨益。尽管今年第一季度货币干预政策非常多，但是央行清晰的沟通使实体经济能够做好准备迎接变化。

此外，央行的沟通手段让人们能够深入了解央行对于取消汇率下限之后汇率如何发展的思路。这一点从众多外汇交易人员的研究中可以得到证实。这些研究支持央行的说法，认为突然升值的可能性有限，因为捷克许多企业早就预期到了脱钩欧元。

此次克朗脱欧后的平稳发展（到目前为止）成功表明较小经济体的央行能有效引导外汇市场。而这只是初始阶段，之后克朗可能会经历较大幅度的波动。但是随着捷克央行的可信度不断加强，它在未来可能会走出这一阶段。这也将会加强央行未来沟通的有效性，不仅有利于金融市场的发展，也有利于捷克的经济发展。

英文原文如下：

Clarity is a central bank virtue

Why Czech exit worked

by Miroslav Singer in Prague

Wed 26 Apr 2017

The Swiss franc has experienced major swings since its surprising and abrupt exit from the currency floor two years ago. Its exchange rate appreciated by more than 40% the first day after the exit, and many expected similar developments in the case of the Czech koruna. But the exchange rate of the koruna is experiencing a much more limited reaction after its exit from a similar floor, strengthening by just 1.6% against the euro. The previous upper limit for the currency’s appreciation, set at 27 koruna per euro, was lifted on 6 April.

This low volatility is helpful for the real economy as it limits uncertainty for companies, investors and consumers, enabling them to consider purchases and investments more safely.

This calm development of the koruna’s exchange rate is relevant for other central banks preparing their exits from unconventional monetary policies. This is particularly true since the end of currency interventions is often thought to be best prepared in secret. It is more relevant still in the light of the intervention data in the annual report published by the Swiss National Bank in March. Despite having the lowest policy rate in Europe (minus 0.75%), the Swiss central bank has been unable to prevent a slowdown of the pace of real economic growth by roughly one-third, nor has it avoided further interventions. The volumes of these interventions are close to those that forced the central bank to end the currency floor, harming both the real economy and its own credibility.

The Czech National Bank used two main communication tools: a clear conditional indication of the period in which it expected the floor to end, and an unconditional promise to keep the floor in place for a promised period (until the end of the first quarter of 2017). As the promised unconditional end date remained unchanged through two monetary policy sessions, financial markets had a reliable signal that the end of the floor was approaching.

The central bank’s transparency and clarity payed dividends. Though the volumes of currency interventions in the first quarter of this year were exceptionally high, the clear communication enabled the real economy to get ready for the change.

Additionally, the communication provided clear insights into the central bank’s thinking on exchange rate developments since exiting the floor. This is borne out by a host of currency traders’ research backing the central bank’s line that the potential for a sharp strengthening is limited, since many corporate participants in the Czech market were already anticipating the exit.

This calm departure (so far) from the floor valuably illustrates that the central bank of a smaller economy can effectively guide foreign currency markets. This is still the initial phase of the exit, and the koruna market may later react with more abrupt swings, but the likelihood is that the CNB will come out of this period with its credibility enhanced. This will increase the bank’s effectiveness in its future communication, bringing benefits to both financial markets and the Czech economy.

Miroslav Singer is former Governor of the Czech National Bank and a Member of the OMFIF Advisory Board. He is Director of Institutional Affairs and Chief Economist at Generali CEE Holding.

观点整理  田雯

图文编辑  田雯

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