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【周四 · 连载】“一带一路”建设提供全球公共物品|《人民币国际化报告2015》

2016-03-24 IMI财经观察
导读人民币国际化是中国人民大学国际货币研究所(IMI)的重点研究领域。自2012年研究所首次发布《人民币国际化报告2012》并首创人民币国际化指数(RII)以来,已经连续三年编写并发布《人民币国际化报告》。尽管时间不长,报告因其独立性、客观性和决策参考性,得到了社会各界尤其是政策部门的高度关注。同时报告还被译成英文和日文同步发布,在国内外理论与实务界均产生较大影响。《人民币国际化报告2015》主题为“一带一路”建设中的货币战略。《IMI研报》栏目将于每周四连续刊登《人民币国际化报告2015》节选系列文章,以飨读者。本文系《人民币国际化报告2015》系列二十三:“一带一路”建设提供全球公共物品。RMB Internationalization is a key research area of IMI. In order to faithfully record the progress of RMB internationalization and objectively reflect the challenges in the long run, IMI has been releasing the “RMB Internationalization Report” since 2012. The Reports draw broad attention from all sectors of society due to the independence, objectivity and referential value for decision making. Currently, the Reports have been released in both China and abroad simultaneously in English, Japanese, Simplified and Traditional Chinese characters. RMB Internationalization Report 2015 themed monetization strategy in the execution of “One Belt One Road” strategy. Every Thursday, this column carries excerpt from the Report 2015.

“一带一路”建设是21世纪中国最重要的国家战略之一,也将是中国向世界提供的最大的合作共赢的公共物品之一。“一带一路”建设肩负着重大的历史使命,将在以下五个方面增加全球公共物品供给:

第一,产生国际合作新理念和新模式。中国的改革开放是当今世界最具影响力的制度创新之一。“一带一路”建设作为21世纪中国全方位对外开放的宏大战略,实际上是中国在国际社会推动包容性发展理念的一大实践。俗话说,实践出真知,“一带一路”建设正在以经济走廊理论、经济带理论、21世纪的国际合作理论等创新经济发展理论、区域合作理论、全球化理论,丰富人类发展的知识宝库,将给21世纪的国际合作带来共商、共建、共享和包容发展新理念和新模式。

第二,高效的设施互联互通。基础设施投资不仅对经济增长有明显的拉动作用,而且充足、高效的基础设施还是国民经济持续发展的根本保障。亚洲“一带一路”沿线国家的交通、通讯、能源等基础设施建设滞后,水平低下,已经成为其经济发展的严重桎梏。中国经济之所以能够保持30多年的高速增长,一个重要原因就是坚持了“基础设施先行”的理念,在政府的组织下社会资金优先投入到基础设施建设中。“一带一路”建设将重点落在基础设施建设和各国基础设施的互联互通上,中国运用自己发达的基础设施产能、技术优势,以及高储蓄的资金优势,动员国际社会资源,推动沿线国家增加基础设施供给,打通沿线国家开展国际贸易的各种道路、设施阻塞,提升整个区域的经济合作水平,为沿线国家未来的经济稳定增长夯实基础。亚洲是世界经济增长最快的地区,亚洲经济的稳定快速增长,也可为世界其他地区经济发展营造良好的环境。

第三,提供新的国际货币。第二次世界大战以来,在布雷顿森林体系的制度框架下,美元一直是主要的国际货币,在国际大宗商品、金融市场充当计价结算和支付工具,并成为各国货币当局的主要储备资产。尽管布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来,美元的地位有所下降,特别是欧元诞生后,国际货币体系多元化的趋势明显,但是,迄今为止,美元仍然在国际储备货币中占有60%以上的份额。美国在全球经济总量的份额不足25%,在国际货币中的份额却超过60%,这种货币地位与实体经济地位的巨大偏差,容易导致美元脱离实体经济自我膨胀,爆发金融危机,进而通过美元巨大的溢出效应将危机传染给其他国家。2008年美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机,令其他国家的损失高达4万亿美元。因此,需要增加新的国际货币,以便在美元出现问题时为国际货币提供稳定的锚和避风港。2009年中国开始推动人民币国际化,就是完善国际货币体系、增加全球公共物品供给的实践。“一带一路”建设是推动亚洲区域经济国家紧密结合的长期战略,中国将努力提供全方位金融支持,包括资金、技术援助、计价结算货币和支付清算体系等等。

第四,建立新型国际金融组织。国际金融合作不管是在提供全球公共物品中还是在维护国家经济主权安全方面都发挥着重要作用。当前的国际金融合作平台主要是国际货币基金组织、世界银行、国际清算银行、各大洲的开发银行等国际金融组织,这些组织是由美国主导的,其治理结构、制度安排、业务标准基本上都是按照发达国家的制度和标准设计的,较少考虑发展中国家的特点和发展要求,在满足发展中国家对国际金融合作的需要方面乏善可陈。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,对此深有体会。为了帮助发展中国家获得公平的发展环境和必要的金融支持,中国一直在努力推动国际金融体系改革,以期建立更加公正合理的国际金融秩序。然而,受到美国国会的阻碍,3年前G20首尔峰会通过的在国际货币基金组织增加发展中国家份额的议案至今尚未落实。因此,中国倡导建立金砖国家开发银行,筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行,设立丝绸之路基金,用务实的态度、新的治理规则和标准,更多关注发展中国家的发展和金融需求,用实际行动参与全球金融治理,推动国际货币体系改革,增加国际金融领域的全球公共物品供给。

第五,为消除局部战争和恐怖主义提供新的手段。战争是造成世界难民增加的元凶,恐怖主义是当前威胁世界各国安全的重要因素。如何维持世界和平?如何消除战争和进行有效的反恐?这是全球面临的生死攸关的共同问题。以暴制暴、以战争消灭战争在短期无疑是一种有效的手段,但是却无法消除战争与恐怖主义滋生的土壤。“一带一路”沿线国家经济发展水平参差不齐,例如,中亚内陆国家和地区在东亚经济圈和欧盟经济圈之间,成为发展的“洼地”,贫困与绝望为战争、极端主义和恐怖主义泛滥提供了温床;中南半岛的“金三角”因为交通等基础设施落后而更多地依靠毒品交易生存。在“一带一路”建设中,中国不仅欢迎沿线国家“搭便车”、“搭快车”,还致力于推动中亚、中南半岛国家共同发展。中国政府将和其他国际组织和国家通过亚洲基础设施投资银行和丝路基金,建设富有生机活力的多条经济走廊。这些措施的实施,必将从陆上和海上两个方向,产生广阔辐射效应,加速消灭贫困,缩小全球化造成的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡。因此,“一带一路”建设是釜底抽薪之举,有利于铲除战争、极端主义和恐怖主义的根源,推动地区热点降温,加快区域一体化进程。推动建立持久和平、普遍安全、共同繁荣的和谐世界。


英文内容如下

China's the Belt and Road Initiative, namely the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road is one of most important national strategies for 21 century, and one of win-win public goods China will provide for the other countries. One Belt and One Road Initiative will shoulder major historical mission, will crease global public goods in the following four approaches:

First of all, new concept and pattern of international cooperation. Reform and open door policy are one of most influencial institutional innovation in the world. As a grand strategy of Chinese all-round open door policy for 21 century, One Belt and One Road Initiative will push inclusive development practice in international communities in effect. There is a ancient Chinese proverb: knowledge comes from practice. One Belt and One Road Initiative will rich our knowledge treasure using innovative economic theories like theory of economic corridors, theory of economic belts, theory of international economic co-operation for 21 century, theory of regional cooperation, theory of economic globalization, will bring new concepts and patterns of co-discuss, co-build, co-share and inclusive development for international cooperation for 21 century.  

Second, high efficient connectivity.Investment in infrastructure can push economic development. adequate and high efficient infrastructure is one of fundamental safeguard for sustainable economic development. Infrastructure like transportation, communication, energy in Asian countries along the Belt and the Road are backward and undersupplied, have the bottleneck effect upon their economic development. Chinese economy has experienced 30 years high speed sustainable economic growth, one of causes is obey the principle infrastructure ranks first.  One Belt and One Road Initiative will focus on the building of infrastructure and co-connection and co-communication between countries. China will use their developed infrastructure capacity, advanced technology and high-saving-rate funding, mobilize their international resources available, increase the infrastructure supply, overcome all barriers for international trade and investment, enhance regional economic cooperation as a whole, lay foundations for future stable development for all Asian countries along the belt and the road. Asia has been a region with most speedy economic growth. Stable and high speed growth in Asia will bring a good business environment for other regions around world.

Third, fresh supply of international currency. Every country with sovereignty issues and use itself currency, and currency will pay statutory compulsory under the paper currency system. However, in cross-border activities, supply of global accepted international currency in form of international currency institutional arrangements can prevent currency depreciation, make transaction cost saving, facilitate international trade and investment, build a ordered international finance system, so help and enhance world economic development. Since World War Two, US Dollar is most important international currency, used as measurement instrument for clearing and payment for international bulk commodities and international financial market, is major reserve assets for all currency authorities under framework of Bretton woods conference that established a new monetary and financial system called Bretton Woods System. After collapse of this system, position of US dollar somewhat decreased, especially after the birth of Euros, there is clear trend that international currency system became diversified. Up to now, US dollar remains over 60% share in international reserve currencies, but US share of world aggregate economy is less than 25%. This significant deviation between currency position and real economic position allows US dollar out of control of real economy easily and result in huge financial crisis.  Major volatility and crisis of US dollar may have spillover effects on other countries. World financial crisis in 2008 triggered by US subprime crisis caused more than 4000 billion enormous losses to other countries. As a result, it is necessary to crease supply of global public goods, add new international currency, those can be a anchorage and safe habor for sake of US dollar crisis. China started to push internationalisation of renminbi in 2009 as a practice for international cooperation. One Belt and One Road Initiative is a long term strategy for pushing Asian regional economic cooperation, Chinese government will do best to provide financial support, like funding, technical assistance and payment clearing system. As for trade and capital flows arise within Asia region, especially for the transactions between Chinese firms and their counterparts, it is convenient, safe, cost saving ,avoidance of exchange risk for renminbin as a clearing instrument. it has been proven that China is responsible and accountable, has a world fame for its macro financial prudential policy, control of financial crisis and exchange fluctuations. Internationalization of renminbin follows directions of international finance development and reforms of international monetary and financial system, well recognized by the countries along the one belt and one road.

Forth, establishment of new international financial organizations. International financial cooperation will play important roles for providing global public goods or maintain national economic sovereignty. There are several forums for international financial cooperation like International monetary fund, World Bank, International Clearing Bank, Development Banks in every continents, those are controlled and supervised by United States of America. Their corporate governance, institutional arrangement, service delivery standards were designed in accordance with systems and standard in developed countries, the characteristics and development requirements were rarely taken into consideration, even ignored totally, can almost meet the needs for international financial cooperation. As the largest developing economy, China has experienced a lot. In order to gain the development climate for leveling play field and required financial assistance, China is always pushing reforms for international financial system, to establish a more fair and reasonable international financial order. However, disturbed by US, the initiative proposed to increase the share in International Monetary Fund which was passed in G20 in Seoul three years ago has not been implemented at all to the present. So, China initiated to establish the New Development Bank by BRICS, build Asian infrastructure development bank, set up silk road fund, pay more attention to the needs by developing countries using practical and working attitude, new governance rules and standards, take involve in global financial governance, push reforms for international financial system, so increase supply of global public goods in the field of international finance.

The fifth, those can provide new instruments to erase regional war and terrorism. War is the fundamental reason for world refugee, terrorism is exposing a threat to existing safety around the world. How to maintain world peace? How to erase war and prevent the terrorism efficiently? All are the critical common issues we are facing. Without question, Violence for violence, to the eradication of war in the short term is undoubtedly an effective means, but they are impossible to erase war and the breeding ground for terrorism. Along the way countries along the uneven levels of economic development, for example, Central Asian landlocked countries and regions between the economic circle of East Asia economic circle and the EU has become the development of depression, poverty and despair for war, extremism and terrorism spread to provide a hotbed. In the southern peninsula of the "Golden Triangle" because of poor transportation infrastructure and more rely on the survival of the drug trade. In the "along the way", China not only welcomed the country free riders, take the express, but also to promote central Asia, South and South Peninsula countries common development. The Chinese government will and other international organizations and countries by the Asian infrastructure investment bank and the Silk Road Fund building full of vigor and vitality of economic corridor. The implementation of these measures will certainly from the land and the sea in two directions, will produce a broad demonstration effect, accelerate the eradication of poverty, resulting in the gap between the rich and the poor and the regional development imbalances. Therefore, One Belt and One Road Initiative is the drastic move, would help to eradicate the root causes of war, extremism and terrorism, promote regional hot spot cooling, accelerate the process of regional integration, and promote the establishment of a harmonious world of lasting peace, common security and common prosperity.

观点整理|赵雪情
编辑|陈沈佳

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