荐读 | 卡梅伦的好运可能持续到英国脱欧公投（中英对照）
IMI学术委员、货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）联席主席戴维·马什近日撰写文章。（中文由“国际电讯”公众号缪昕、董一翻译。）
作者认为目前由于国内政治因素（福利开支减少的政策），卡梅伦正在遭受巨大的压力，其所在的保守党与2020年继续执政的可能性也在减少。但在英国的脱离欧盟问题上，马什认为卡梅伦可能继续“好运”。英国国内申根区免签的疑虑正因为边境管制而降低，欧元区QE在短期内使得经济形势见好，这减少了英国脱离欧盟的理由。而卡梅伦也将从中获益。
文章内容如下：
大卫卡梅伦自2010年以来担任英国首相，他向来以好运气而闻名。
财政大臣奥斯本在3月13日宣布在新一年的财政预算中将进一步削减公共支出，这在保守党内部引发争议，之后削减公共支出的计划被取消。这一饱受争议的决定引发了舆论的“内战”。但将于6月23日举行的英国脱欧公投才是议事日程上的首位，而卡梅伦可能继续得到好运的眷顾。
虽然英国内政形势复杂，但欧洲事态正按照卡梅伦的预期发展。
在国内，卡梅伦首相遇到了麻烦。卡梅伦的宿敌、前保守党领袖莱恩·邓肯·史密斯在3月18日晚上辞去英国就业和养老金大臣一职。3月13日，英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本主持了一次普通的财政预算宣布会议，宣布将减少福利开支，违背了保守党“援助穷人和残疾人”的承诺，他和卡梅伦由此受到史密斯的谩骂。
许多保守党国会议员支持史密斯批评卡梅伦的忠诚支持者奥斯本，反对党工党也报以欢呼，这无疑削减了卡梅伦的威信，更不必说邓肯·史密斯反对英国留在欧盟，由此获得了许多传统保守党成员的支持。在发布了违背承诺的预算后，奥斯本在卡梅伦2020年如期下台后接过保守党领导权的机会大大减小。
但是，复活节之后保守党的党内争议很可能告一段落。奥斯本没有注意到保守党的敏感之处，党内的反对声音戳穿了他装出来的自尊心。但是削减福利开支对英国经济的健康发展有好处，而且欧洲局势较为明朗，有利于英国留在欧盟，所以卡梅伦并不会为奥斯本感到不高兴。
在欧洲的另一边，默克尔在德国地方选举受挫，卡梅伦可能会因祸得福。默克尔濒临失败，而大多数德国人希望英国留在欧盟，卡梅伦可以期待德国领导人在脱欧公投的预备阶段发表意见支持英国留在欧盟。
奥地利和其他过境国实施了边境管制，大大减缓了难民进入德国的速度，这维护了英国一直以来对于申根区免签政策的怀疑主义，申根区不再是英国脱离欧盟的理由。
无论欧洲的长期问题是什么，欧洲央行新近实行的量化宽松政策导致短期内经济回升，给欧洲大陆带来了一道亮光。少了欧元区经济衰退的负面言论，英国便不会以经济发展受阻为由离开欧盟。
难民危机成为欧洲外交矛盾新焦点，希腊为处理难民取道土耳其进入欧洲的问题而大伤脑筋，相比之下希腊经济建设的多重失败已不那么重要，欧盟经济的负面形象稍有改善。
自从凭借智谋在在2010年击败工党首相戈登·布朗开始，卡梅伦好运不断。相比于自由民主党的执政联盟伙伴，他表现更好；他走了好运，先赢得2015大选，再与工党领袖杰里·米科尔宾竞争，后者完全没有当选首相的希望。
卡梅伦一直想让英国和欧元区离得越远越好。毫无疑问他同意前英格兰银行行长默文金对欧元区的悲观预测。默文金在新书《点石成金的终结》中写道：为了上调实际汇率，德国可能不得不离开欧元区，而别国欠德国的债务可能会成为一堆废纸。
但是，在几个月之内，欧元区的表现将会变好，卡梅伦从而幸运地得到拯救。
英文原文
LONDON (MarketWatch) — David Cameron, U.K. prime minister since 2010, is celebrated for his lucky streak.
With the Conservative party in the throes of civil war over controversial welfare cuts announced in last week’s budget, and then rescinded, Cameron may be feeling the political heat. But in the largest issue on the horizon — over the June 23 referendum on British membership in the European Union — Cameron may be granted continued good fortune.
Beyond the troubled contours of domestic politics, European developments are moving Cameron’s way.
At home, the prime minister faces some turbulence. Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader and long-time Cameron adversary, resigned on Friday night as work and pensions secretary (social security minister). Over the weekend he savaged Cameron and George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer (finance minister) who presided last week over what was generally seen as a lackluster set of budget announcements, for making a significant blunder with proposed spending reductions shelving the Tories’ commitment to the worse-off and disabled.
The attacks on Cameron loyalist Osborne, backed by a variety of Conservative MPs and seized on with glee by the opposition Labour party, undoubtedly weaken Cameron’s authority too, especially as Duncan Smith commands considerable support from traditional Conservative supporters backing his hostility to EU membership. Osborne’s post-budget U-turn over disability cuts badly undermines his chances of taking over the party leadership from Cameron when the prime minister steps down as promised before the 2020 election.
However, the Tory squalls will probably die down after Easter. Moreover, Cameron may not be displeased to see Osborne’s normally unctuous self-confidence punctured by a failure to heed Conservative sensitivities.
Elsewhere in Europe, German regional election setbacks on March 13 suffered by Chancellor Angela Merkel may turn out a blessing in disguise. With Merkel domestically on the ropes and most Germans wanting the U.K. to stay in the EU, Cameron can expect a stream of supportive remarks from German leaders in the run-up to June 23.
Border controls imposed by Austria and other transit countries, which have significantly slowed the refugee influx into Germany, vindicate Britain’s traditional skepticism on the Schengen border-free system for European migration.
Whatever Europe’s longer-term problems, short-term economic buoyancy after fresh easing from the European Central Bank may provide a welcome continental shaft of light just when Cameron can use less dire headlines about the euro economy.
Greece’s multiple failures to meet restructuring targets now matter a great deal less as a result of the country’s much greater challenges dealing with massive migration via Turkey, which has replaced Greece as the main focus of European diplomatic wrangling.
Cameron’s windfalls stretch from the providence that pitted him electorally in 2010 against failed Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown to his mastery over his Liberal Democrat coalition partners and his good fortune in first winning the 2015 election and then being matched against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, a prime ministerial no-hoper.
Cameron has been keen to put maximum distance between the U.K. and the eurozone. He would no doubt agree with the downbeat sentiments of Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, who wrote in his just-released book, “The End of Alchemy,” that Germany might have to leave the euro as a means of allowing its real exchange rate to appreciate and that German claims on debtor countries might be “little more than worthless paper.”
(This is remarkably similar to my own findings in a newly republished book that Germany’s greatly expanded financial claims are a source of vulnerability since a sizable proportion will never be repaid.)
However, in the next few months, a better eurozone performance may come to “Lucky” Cameron’s rescue.
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