双语 | 特朗普真会只请习近平吃麦当劳汉堡？

据最新报道，国家主席习近平14日同美国当选总统特朗普通电话。习近平祝贺特朗普当选美国总统。习近平表示，中美建交37年来，两国关系不断向前发展，给两国人民带来了实实在在的利益，也促进了世界和地区和平、稳定、繁荣。事实证明，合作是中美两国唯一的正确选择。当前，中美合作拥有重要机遇和巨大潜力，双方要加强协调，推动两国经济发展和全球经济增长，拓展各领域交流合作，让两国人民获得更多实惠，推动中美关系更好向前发展。

习近平指出，作为最大的发展中国家、最大的发达国家、世界前两大经济体，中美需要合作和可以合作的事情很多。我高度重视中美关系，愿同美方共同努力推进两国关系，更好造福两国人民和其他各国人民。

特朗普表示，感谢习主席祝贺我当选美国总统。我赞同习主席对美中关系的看法。中国是伟大和重要的国家，中国发展的良好前景令世人瞩目。美中两国可以实现互利共赢。我愿意同你一道，加强美中两国合作。我相信美中关系一定能取得更好发展。

习近平和特朗普同意保持密切联系，建立良好工作关系，并早日会面，就两国关系发展和双方共同关心的问题及时交换看法。

相信很多人看到这则消息后，都会感到“疯子”特朗普的“画风”开始变了。由于他在大选期间曾对中国大放厥词，声称“中国抢走了我们的工作”，将推出一系列政策对付中国，甚至将加强在东海、南海的军力部署威慑中国等，所以，他当选总统之后会怎么处理中美关系，一时间备受关注。但随着画风的转变，当初的那些“誓言”看来靠不住了。

那么，特朗普当选后，会跟中国怎么相处？他曾表示如果习近平来访将只请他吃麦当劳汉堡，他真的会那样做吗？让我们来看看《金融时报》的这篇分析↓↓↓

Donald Trump was as unscripted as Chinese diplomacy is scripted, right down to the precise length of red carpets. This clash of styles makes it easy to imagine some entertaining exchanges at one of the most anticipated summits of 2017 — Mr Trump’s first meeting as president with Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart.

中国外交是按剧本来的——精确到红地毯的长度；而唐纳德•特朗普是完全不用剧本的。双方的这种风格冲突，让人不由想象，特朗普就任美国总统后第一次会见中国国家主席习近平时，两人会有怎样有趣的交流。那将是2017年最令人期待的首脑会晤之一。

If the pattern of recent meetings between Mr Xi and Barack Obama holds, the next Sino-US presidential summit will be held next year in Washington.

如果近年来习近平和巴拉克•奥巴马之间的会晤模式延续下来，那么下一次中美首脑会议将于明年在华盛顿举行。

On his visit to the US capital in September 2015, Mr Xi was Mr Obama’s guest of honour at a White House state dinner. “I would not be throwing him a McDonald’s hamburger.” Mr Trump told Fox News at the time, six months before he won his first primary. “I’d get him a McDonald’s hamburger and say, ‘we gotta get down to work because you can’t continue to devalue [the renminbi]’.”

2015年9月习近平访问美国首都时，奥巴马在白宫设国宴招待。而特朗普在赢得初选的6个月前说：“我不会为他摆宴。我就给他一个麦当劳的汉堡，然后说，‘咱们开始干正事吧，因为你不能继续（让人民币）贬值了’。”

In this instance, Mr Trump was characteristically wrong on the facts. Since January 2014, China’s central bank has been intervening to slow — not accelerate — the renminbi’s largely market-driven decline against the dollar.

特朗普一贯搞不清情况。自2014年1月以来，中国央行干预的目的一直是减慢、而不是加速基本上由市场驱动的人民币兑美元贬值过程。

Mr Trump will be unlike any US president Chinese officials have dealt with. In terms of background as well as temperament, he is also the diametrical opposite of Mr Xi.

特朗普将不同于中国官员打过交道的任何一位美国总统。在背景和性情方面，他跟习近平完全相反。

As tempting as it is to imagine Mr Xi at a working lunch in the White House Cabinet Room, looking for a paper napkin to wipe the hamburger grease off his fingers, Beijing is accustomed to managing abrupt shifts in America’s political weather.

你或许会忍不住想象这样的画面：习近平在白宫用工作午餐，吃完汉堡后，想找张餐巾纸擦掉手指上沾的油。不过，北京方面已经习惯于应对美国政治气候的突然转变。

From Bill Clinton in 1993 to George W Bush in 2001, to Mr Obama in 2009 and Mr Trump next year, the ideological lurch from one president to the next has been dramatic. But through it all, Sino-US relations have been remarkably steady.

从1993年的比尔•克林顿到2001年的小布什，再到2009年的奥巴马和明年的特朗普，从一位总统到下一位总统，意识形态变化总是很戏剧性。但是，一直以来，中美关系一直很稳定。

Mr Bush similarly entered office envisioning China as a “strategic competitor” rather than partner, only for the September 11 terrorist attacks to divert his attention to other parts of the world. He ended up seeking co-operation with Beijing rather than confrontation.

小布什上台时，同样把中国看作一个“战略竞争对手”，而不是合作伙伴，只是9月11日的恐怖袭击才让他把注意力转移到世界其他地区。他最终寻求与北京方面合作，而不是对抗。

Surely this time is different? Mr Obama largely set aside his differences with Mr Xi to focus on areas where the two men could agree, most notably on climate change. Mr Trump, by contrast, has campaigned on potential conflict areas with China, from trade and currency issues to territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

这次肯定会不同吗？奥巴马基本上把他与习近平的分歧搁置一边，而着眼于双方能达成共识的领域，最主要的是气候变化领域。相比之下，特朗普在竞选中拿美中潜在冲突领域大做文章，从贸易和汇率问题到南中国海的领土争端。

But even if he is determined to walk his tough talk on China, Mr Trump’s initial room for manoeuvre will be limited by the actions of his predecessors. Most of China’s trade with the US is protected from unilateral actions by Beijing’s membership in the World Trade Organisation, which was negotiated and finalised by Presidents Clinton and Bush.

但是，即使特朗普决心把他对中国说过的“狠话”付诸实践，他上任初期的腾挪空间也将受到前任们所采取政策的限制。由于中国是世贸组织(WTO)成员国，中国与美国的大部分贸易活动不会受单边行动影响——中国加入世贸组织是克林顿和小布什最终敲定的。

Mr Trump’s administration would also be internationally isolated in any attempt to brand the Chinese government a “currency manipulator” after the International Monetary Fund, without objection from Mr Obama, last year formally recognised the renminbi as a reserve currency.

特朗普政府如果尝试给中国政府贴上“汇率操纵国”的标签，其在全球范围内将孤立无援。去年国际货币基金组织已把人民币确立为一种储备货币，奥巴马没有反对。

Such constraints should give Mr Trump and Mr Xi space to proceed with caution.

这些约束应该会给特朗普和习近平留下谨慎行事的空间。

Chinese leaders have a phrase for such gradualism, which describes their favourite approach to difficult challenges. They call it “crossing the river by feeling for the stones”, as opposed to plunging headfirst into the rapids.

中国领导层有句话形容这种渐进主义，用于描述他们应对棘手挑战的方法。他们称之为“摸着石头过河”，而不是鲁莽地一头扎进湍急的河水。

双语来源：金融时报网站 有删减

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