双语•智库 |“低估中国”是错的！大西洋月刊发文称赞“一带一路”

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近日，针对特朗普访华期间中美关系取得的成果，中国人民大学国际事务研究所所长、国际关系学院教授王义桅发表文章称，在此背景下，美方应重新认真考虑参与“一带一路”建设的问题，因为那里蕴含着中美互利共赢的更大空间。事实上，两国这次新签合作项目中，已有涉及“一带一路”建设的内容。

而日前美国《大西洋月刊》的这篇文章则显示了奥巴马之后，美国人对“一带一路”看法的积极转变。本期为“双语·智库”第九期，文章有删节。

'It's a Mistake to Underestimate China'

“低估中国那就错了”

At the recent APEC CEO Summit in Vietnam, President Donald Trump said the United States would refocus its existing development efforts in Asia toward infrastructure investment that promotes economic growth. While the room was full of hundreds of corporate and government officials from the region and around the world, Trump was delivering his remarks to an audience of one: China. “We are … committed to reforming our development finance institutions so that they better incentivize private sector investment in your economies, and provide strong alternatives to state-directed initiatives that come with many strings attached,” he said.

最近在越南举行的亚太经合组织工商领导人峰会上，特朗普总统称，美国将调整其亚洲发展重心，转向基础设施投资以促进经济增长。当时，大厅里在座的有来自世界各地的几百位企业高管和政府官员，但特朗普的讲话其实面对的观众只有一个：中国。他说：“我们正在……对发展金融机构进行改革，以更好地激励私营企业对中国经济的投资，在国家主导的举措及其附加条件之外提供强有力的选择。”

But there are few signs that Washington has the political appetite to compete with the kinds of investments China has been making around the world. The most visible aspect of Beijing’s ambition to extend its economic and political influence around the world is the Belt and Road initiative, a massive infrastructure plan that aims to connect China to its Asian neighbors and farther afield. Think of it as a hub-and-spoke model: China, the hub, builds infrastructure in countries around the world, the spokes, in order to facilitate trade. China is building roads, bridges, seaports, and airports in more than 60 countries to facilitate the import of raw material in order to further fuel its own economic growth while it searches for new markets.

但是目前鲜有迹象表明，华盛顿拥有与中国在世界各地进行的这些投资相竞争的政治意图。“一带一路”倡议是北京希望扩大其经济和政治影响力的最显著体现。这是一个大型基础设施计划，旨在将中国与亚洲邻国和更远的地区相连。我们把它想象成一个中心辐射状模型：中国作为中心，在其辐射区的周边世界各国进行基础设施建设，促进贸易。中国正在60多个国家建设道路、桥梁、海港和机场，以促进原材料进口，推动本国经济进一步增长，同时寻求新的市场。

Thousands of China’s workers are overseeing projects as far afield as Belarus, Ethiopia, and Sri Lanka—places in dire need of infrastructure investment. “The Chinese are good at marrying market needs with geopolitical goals,” Daniel Kliman, the senior fellow in the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, told me. “It’s a mistake to underestimate China’s ability,” he added.

成千上万的中国工人都远赴白俄罗斯、埃塞俄比亚、斯里兰卡等急需基础设施投资的地区监管项目。“中国人善于将市场需求与地缘政治目标相结合。”新美国安全中心亚太安全项目高级研究员丹尼尔·克里曼说。“低估中国的能力那就错了。”他还补充道。

And yet, that’s often exactly what America seems to do. In the Obama era, Washington’s reaction to China’s growing clout ranged from ignoring its efforts at regional economic integration to unsuccessfully urging regional allies to reject a Beijing-led infrastructure initiative, to finally negotiating a massive multilateral trade deal that offered regional nations a viable alternative to Chinese investment. So far in the Trump era, U.S. policy has constituted withdrawing from that Obama-era trade deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership, to calling the financial terms China offers for its projects “predatory,” and, finally, to Trump’s indirect remarks about China in Vietnam. (Asian countries are going ahead with the TPP without the United States.) But for those countries that might be looking for an alternative to Chinese investment, the United States, of late, has had little to offer beyond words.

然而，这似乎也正是美国经常遵循的。在奥巴马时代，华盛顿对中国影响力不断扩大的反应包括——忽视中国为区域经济一体化所做的努力，游说地区盟友拒绝中国主导的基础设施建设计划未果后，又谈判达成一项大规模多边贸易协议，为地区国家提供中国投资以外的可行选择。到目前为止，在特朗普时代，美国政策退出了奥巴马时代的贸易协议，即跨太平洋伙伴关系协定，不再称中国为其项目提供的金融条款是“掠夺性”的，否定了特朗普在越南时关于中国的间接评论。（亚洲国家将继续推进没有美国参与的TPP协定。）不过，对于那些可能寻求中国投资以外选择的国家来说，美国近来除了空话也帮不上什么忙。

 Kliman pointed out, “Not all of what China is doing is market-driven, but there are infrastructure needs in the Indian Ocean area,” Kliman said. China is meeting those needs.

克里曼指出：“虽然中国做的每件事并非都以市场为导向，但印度洋地区确实对基础设施有需求。”而中国正在填补这些需求。

Ultimately, while America and its allies figure out a coherent response to Belt and Road, China has a singular advantage: It is offering the countries where it is investing a vision for the future. In a sense, through Belt and Road, it seeks to replicate what it has done within its own borders for the past three decades—investments that have helped lift more than 700 million people out of poverty and into the middle class. During that time, globalization has brought steady jobs to China in sectors such as manufacturing. The tangible benefits include massive infrastructure projects, near-perfect roads, and futuristic skylines in places beyond the Western consciousness like Nanchang, not to mention major cities like Shanghai. In other words, China is telling the world it can achieve those same results.

美国及其盟友对“一带一路”作出了一致回应，不过中国依然有其独特优势，那就是让所投资的国家看到了未来的愿景。某种意义上讲，中国希望通过“一带一路”将国内过去三十年的发展经验复制到沿线国家，在此期间的投入已经帮助7亿多人口脱贫，向中产阶级迈进，全球化为中国制造业等行业创造了稳定的就业机会，并带来了真切的实惠，如大规模基建项目、近乎完美的道路以及充满未来气息的城市天际线，在南昌这样西方国家没听说过的城市尚且如此，更不用说像上海这种大城市了。换句话说，中国在向全世界宣告会在“一带一路”取得同样的成果。

“We’re in a new era, a globalized world,” Shao Yuqun, director of the Center for American Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a government think tank, told a group of U.S. reporters in Shanghai. “We won’t be isolated.” The Belt and Road Initiative will make sure of that.

政府智库——上海国际问题研究院美洲中心主任邵育群在接受美国记者团采访时表示：“我们处在新时代和一个全球化的世界，不会被孤立。”“一带一路”倡议将为此保驾护航。

作者

▲Krishnadev Calamur

《大西洋月刊》资深编辑，负责新闻报道审稿工作。曾任美国国家公共电台编辑兼记者，著有《孟买谋杀案》（Murder in Mumbai）。

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