双语•智库 | 称霸全球数百年的英语 正在走向衰落？

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本期为第十九期，译介了英国《卫报》（The Guardian）的文章，该文梳理了英语崛起的历程，并分析了随着中国的崛起，英语达到历史高点后可能逐渐衰落的趋势。

In China last month, Theresa May attended the launch of the British Council’s English is Great campaign, intended to boost interest and fluency in English. Beyond doubt, the use of English is greater than ever, and far more widespread than any other language in the world. All non-English-speaking powers of our globalised world recognise it as the first foreign language to learn; it is also, uniquely, in practical use worldwide. The British Council reckons that English is spoken at a useful level by some 1.75 billion people, a quarter of the world’s population. It is taught from primary level up in all China’s schools; it is the working language of the whole European Union.

今年1月，特蕾莎·梅在中国参加了英国文化协会发起的“英语很伟大”活动，旨在提高人们对英语的兴趣和流利程度。毫无疑问，英语的使用比以往更加频繁，也比世界上所有其他语言传播得更广。在我们这个全球化的世界，所有非英语国家都将英语作为第一外语来学习。英语也独一无二地在世界范围内得到了实际应用。据英国文化协会估计，使用英语的人数大约有17.5亿，占世界总人口的1/4。在中国，从小学阶段就开始教授英语；而在整个欧盟，英语是工作用语。

▲1月31日，特蕾莎·梅在武汉参加“英语很伟大”活动（图片来源：中国日报）

On the news service France 24, English is used more prominently than French. Its use is required of all airline pilots and control towers, 24/7. And it is seen as an essential cachet for progress in some amazing places: for example, 14 years ago, the prime minister of Mongolia – a country with no historic links to an English-speaking power – decreed it should replace Russian in all schools as part of his aspiration to make Ulaanbaatar a centre for telephone call services. One in six Russians claims to speak it. English is clearly the language of choice for those with global aspirations, whatever their political stance towards Anglo-Saxon powers.

法国24电视台通讯社使用英语的频率比法语高。所有航空公司的飞行员和控制塔都要求全天候使用英语。在某些奇特的地方，使用英语被视为进步的标志：比如，14年前蒙古国（一个史上与任何英语国家都毫无关联的国家）总理下令所有学校从教授俄语改为教授英语，作为其兴国计划的一项措施，将乌兰巴托作为电话呼叫服务中心。1/6的俄罗斯人也自称说英语。显然，英语是那些有着全球抱负之人的首选语言，无关他们对盎格鲁-撒克逊国家的政治立场如何。

This global acceptance of English, now far beyond the zones of influence of the British empire or the United States’ backyard, has effectively grown 42 35448 42 15045 0 0 2155 0 0:00:16 0:00:06 0:00:10 2915up in just a century since the 1919 treaty of Versailles. In deference to the US, this was the first international treaty written in English; but it also turned out to mark the incipient decline of the world’s greatest English-speaking institution, the British empire. From a language point of view, however, British power had the good fortune to be succeeded by its cousin in North America, so that the usual historic lag, as political command leads on to linguistic imitation, was disguised. Even as Britain began to decline economically, its established position was reflected by increased take-up of English as the language to learn.

自1919年《凡尔赛和约》签订以来，仅一个世纪的时间，英语在全球各地迅速兴起，远远超过了受大英帝国或美国后院影响的区域。由于涉及到美国，这是第一个用英语写成的国际条约。但它也标志着世界上最庞大的英语社会——大英帝国开始衰落。然而，英国列强的语言有幸得到了其北美“表亲”国家的传承，并且，出于政治要求而引发的这些国家对英语的效仿，掩盖了英国原本的历史性衰落。即使英国的经济开始衰退，学习英语人数的不断增加也体现了它的既有地位。

▲1919年6月28日,《凡尔赛和约》在巴黎签订

But all this while, especially from the 1920s to the 1990s, the focus of US expansion was changing, moving from North America to the world, leading to influence on trade, engineering, telecommunications, mining, media, science and finance, as the dollar moved to replace sterling as the world’s reserve currency. This was followed by the digital information revolution, creating new fortunes based in Silicon Valley at the turn of the 21st century. These were all positive for the world role of English (a role founded by Great Britain), but should have been expected to peak later, in the growth of soft power and the increased popularity of American culture.

但这段时间，特别是20世纪20-90年代，美国的注意力发生变化，由北美转向全球，进而影响到了贸易、工程、电信、矿业、媒体、科学、金融等领域，而美元也逐步取代英镑成为了世界储备货币。随之而来的数字信息革命在世纪之交的硅谷创造了新的财富，这些都对英语在全球的角色起到了积极作用（大不列颠为这一角色奠定了基础），随着美国软实力的提高和美国文化的普及，本来英语日后的发展是会迎来巅峰的。

It is this lagged growth of English, reflecting US influence hitherto, that we are now experiencing. Yet it is happening in a 21st century when other nations, particularly in Asia but also in South America and Africa, are far outpacing the US (let alone Britain and the European Union) in economic growth rates. This is an amazing juncture in world history. And two questions arise. Is the position of English a real asset to the states that speak it natively? And is the language likely to hold this position in the pecking order indefinitely?

如今我们感受到英语的后起之势，折射出美国持续至今的影响力。但与此同时，进入21世纪后其他国家，尤其是亚洲、南美和非洲国家的经济增速都远超美国（更不用说英国和欧盟了），这在世界历史上是惊人的转折期。两个问题由此而生：对于说英语的国家来说，英语的地位还是一项切实的优势吗？眼下英语的地位能在既有秩序中长期保持下去吗？

Considering the windfall benefits of English as one’s own language, some immediate advantages are undeniable. It has given direct access to the world’s principal medium of communication: good for having an inside track on “news we can use”, as well as facilitated access for well-educated anglophones to influential jobs. It has also put us in a position to charge some kind of rent for allowing others admission to this linguistic elite: hence the massive earnings from teaching English as a foreign language (now well over £2bn in the UK alone, reaching £3bn by 2020), and global markets for English-language publishing (£1.4bn in exports in 2015).

谈及英语作为母语所带来的意外收获，有些直接优势不可否认。英语成为全球主要交流媒介，让我们在“可用新闻”方面占据优势，还有利于受过良好教育的英语母语人士获得不凡的工作。我们还能借此收取佣金，帮助别人成为英语精英，于是就有了将英语作为外语进行教授所带来的丰厚收益（眼下仅在英国就创造了20多亿英镑的收入，预计2020年将达到30亿英镑），以及英语出版的国际市场（2015年出口额达14亿英镑）。

But special knowledge of a language is an asset that wastes all too soon when it becomes global property. World English will have just a historic connection to Britain or the US, and knowing it well is no longer exclusive to native speakers. Even the short-term windfall advantages came with a moral hazard. Presumption of entitlement can breed complacency at home, as well as resentment abroad – all too evident in the current “negotiations” on Britain’s divorce from Europe.

但当一门语言的特定知识变成全球资产时，她就变得极易流失。英语成为国际语言，只与英国或美国有着历史性关联，而精通英语也已不再是母语人士的“专利”。甚至英语短期的意外优势也遭遇了道德风险。这种对权利的想当然会在国内引起自满，而在国外招致怨恨，这一切都在当下的英国脱欧谈判中得以体现。

It is hard to credit the vulnerability of a language such as English – which has spread, unbidden and unplanned, far beyond its homeland, and is even claimed to be the “language of freedom”. But this in itself is nothing new. Transnational lingua francas, once established, always give off an aura of permanence. Yet when circumstances change, they fall. And the change is clearly coming.

我们很难想象，像英语这样的语言也具有脆弱性，它能够自行广泛传播，并远远超出了本土，甚至被称为“自由的语言”。但这没什么新意。国际通用语言一旦得以确立，往往会显出一种永久的气质。但情况发生变化时，通用语也会没落。而这种变化显然正在来临。

And so the natural expectation will be that after the new powers, such as China, India or Brazil, establish themselves economically, politically (and probably militarily), their linguistic and cultural influence too will come to be felt, among those who want to do business with them, and then with one another. But as with all newly dominant languages, there will be a lag.

因此，人们很自然地期望，像中国、印度、巴西这样的新兴国家建立了经济、政治（可能还有军事）地位后，它们在语言和文化上会影响与其有合作意向的国家，进而相互影响。但和所有那些新晋主导地位的语言一样，这个过程会有所延迟。

Something like this, after all, is what happened in the 17th century, when the newly global power France won a role for French as a common language for civilised Europe: French – with strong Enlightenment overtones – replaced Latin itself, which had held that role for 15 centuries. In a different way, it is what happened in the 19th century, when the imperial interlopers Russia and Britain abolished Farsi in their Asian domains. Before that, Farsi had been pre-eminent for 800 years as the language of Muslim culture, trade and politics.

类似的情况曾经发生在17世纪，当时新兴的世界大国法国为法语赢得了作为欧洲文明通用语言的角色：带有强烈启蒙运动色彩的法语取代了拉丁语，而后者曾作为通用语言长达15个世纪。19世纪发生的事则显得不同，帝国入侵者俄国和英国在其亚洲势力范围内废除了波斯语。此前，波斯语作为穆斯林文化、贸易和政治的杰出语言已有800年历史。

For English, therefore, its current peak is likely to be as good as it will ever get, its glory as a world language lasting just a couple of centuries – almost a flash in the pan, not yet comparable with those forerunners Latin or Farsi. And on present form, its fall is likely to coincide with the latest rise of China, whose documented history has run for three millennia. Chinese, too, is great.

因此，对于英语来说，它目前的高峰可能已达到前所未有的水平，它作为一种世界语言的辉煌只持续了几个世纪——几乎是昙花一现，还比不上那些早期的拉丁语或波斯语。而就目前的形势而言，它的衰落很可能与中国最近的崛起同时发生，中国有记录的历史已持续了三千年了。汉语，也是伟大的。

英文来源：The Guardian

作者：Nicholas Ostler

编译：Yee君

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