天下•译事 | 预测：未来4-6年内，全球机翻市场有多大？
作为智库型研究与资讯平台，译世界【官方微信号译•世界（YEEWORLD）】现推出“天下•译事”（原名“环球•译事”）栏目，聚焦全球语言服务行业，以专业的视角、前沿的眼光，通过双语译介、原创策划等多种形式，评述行业现象、观察业态发展，欢迎关注！
本期为第十四期，带你从技术、地区、应用领域、行业背景等方面全面了解机器翻译，并对未来4-6年机翻市场做出预测。
Increasing quantity of website content, growing requirement for cost competence in translation, and the huge quantity of language knowledge demanded exceeds the capability of human translation, which consecutively is expected to propel the machine translation industry. Globalization increases the demand to deal with the linguistic variety of local audiences and web content. The fabrication of content generated online, increasing the importance of business in budding markets, and the demand for allowing worldwide collaboration amongst employees is likely to drive machine translation industry growth over the forecast period.
随着网站内容量的不断增加，对翻译成本竞争力的要求不断提高，所需的大量语言知识超过了人的翻译能力，这将不断推动机器翻译行业的发展。全球化使本土受众和网络内容对语言多样化的需求增加。制作在线生成的内容，提升新兴市场中业务的重要性，以及员工之间开展全球协作的需求很可能在预测期内推动机器翻译行业的增长。
行业趋势
Machine Translation Market size was over USD 400 million in 2016 with 19.0% CAGR estimation from 2017 to 2024.
2016年，机器翻译市场规模超过4亿美元（约合人民币25亿元），自2017年至2024年，其复合年增长率预计为19.0%。
▲U.S. Machine Translation Market Share, By Application, 2016
2016年，美国机器翻译在各个应用领域的市场份额
The machine translation market is advancing at a rapid rate and in order to keep pace with the translation requirements, companies are becoming increasingly aware of the need to localize content into more languages. This is due to the rising demand for location based content across various industrial verticals such as e-commerce, electronics, travel, and hospitality. The technology aids in providing information to the end users in their native language which is an absolute must-have to gain prominence in the business, driving the global machine translation market. The importance of localization is recognised by most businesses today as it helps businesses to win over customers’ trust and establish strong relationships with them that helps them build their brand image.
机器翻译市场正在快速发展，为了跟上翻译需求，公司愈发意识到将内容本地化为更多语言的必要性。这是因为在诸如电子商务、电子工业、旅游、酒店等各种不同垂直行业中，对基于位置的内容需求日益增长。机器翻译技术有助于以终端用户的母语向其提供信息，这是贸易取得突破的必备要素，也会推动全球机器翻译市场。如今，本地化的重要性得到了大多数企业的认可，因为本地化有助于企业赢得客户信任，并与其建立牢固的关系，进而助力企业树立品牌形象。
The MT engines shorten project timeline and helps in reducing costs for customers as they can localize content specific to the requirements driving the machine translation market growth.
机器翻译引擎缩短了项目时间线，并有助于为客户降低成本，它们能够根据需求对特定内容进行本地化，推动了机器翻译市场的增长。
当前，已有多家机构对机器翻译未来几年的市场做出预测，不同机构的预测值不尽相同，甚至差别颇大，但不妨作比对参考：
■ 据Million Insights预测，2022年全球机器翻译市场规模将达9.8亿美元（约合人民币61.6亿元）↓
The global Machine Translation Market is anticipated to reach USD 983.3 million by 2022.
2022年，全球机器翻译市场规模预计将达到9.8亿美元。
■ 据Crystal Market Research研究中心预测，2022年全球机器翻译市场规模将达14.8亿美元（约合人民币93亿元）↓
The global Machine Translation market was worth USD 0.25 billion in the year 2012 and is expected to reach approximately USD 1.48 billion by 2022, while registering itself at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.40% during the forecast period.
2012年，全球机器翻译市场价值2.5亿美元（约合人民币15.7亿元），预计到2022年将达到14.8亿美元左右，在预测期内，其复合年增长率（CAGR）为19.40%。
■ 据全球最大的市场研究库Research & Markets预测，2023年全球机器翻译市场规模将达1.95亿美元（约合人民币12亿元）↓
Machine translation market is forecasted to witness a CAGR of over 6.0% during the period 2017-2023 to reach $195.4 million by 2023.
2017-2023年期间，机器翻译市场的复合年增长率超过6.0%，并在2023年达到1.95亿美元。
■ 据Investor Opinion预测，2024年全球机器翻译市场规模将达15亿美元（约合人民币94亿元）↓
Global Machine Translation Market is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 15% to exceed USD 1.5 billion by 2024.
全球机器翻译市场的复合年增长率预计将超过15%，市场规模将在2024年超过15亿美元。
机器翻译市场之技术
On the basis of application, the market can be segregated into automotive, medical, healthcare, electronics, information technology, and others. On the basis of technologies, the market can be segregated into RBMT, SMT and others. The SMT (statistical machine translation) uses a model to create and analyse text in the aimed language in contrast to this RBMT (rule-based machine translation) uses linguistic rules over the sourced language, to create text in the aimed language.
市场根据应用可以划分为汽车、医疗、保健、电子、信息技术等，根据技术可以划分为基于规则的机器翻译（RBMT）和统计机器翻译（SMT）等。SMT使用模型来创建和分析目标语言文本，而RBMT使用源语言的语言规则来创建目标语言文本。
RBMT technology is predicted to grow at a CAGR of over 14% from 2017 to 2024 due to the usage of verbal information to precisely break down the target and source languages, making it more predictable and grammatically superior than other approaches. It can also be customized with a terminology management system to modify the generated text by specifying the terminology that should be used.
由于RBMT使用语言信息来精确分解目标语言和源语言，2017年至2024年，RBMT技术复合年增长率预计超过14%，使其比其他方法更具可预测性和语法优势。它还可以定制术语管理系统，通过指定应该使用的术语来修改生成的文本。
Hybrid, example based, and neural machine translation market share may witness substantial growth. The hybrid model uses both rule based and statistical based translation approaches to create several variants at the sentence and lexicon structure level. This is done to attain the advantages of both RBMT and SMT, since RBMT aids in the formation of syntactically linked and grammatically correct script, whereas SMT aids in achieving rapid learning ability and acquisition of data from parallel quantities in automatic mode.
混合机器翻译、基于实例的机器翻译和神经机器翻译的市场份额可能会显著增长。混合模型使用基于规则和统计的翻译方法在句子和词素结构层面创建数个变体。这样做是为了结合RBMT和SMT的优点，因为RBMT有助于形成句法连贯和语法正确的脚本，而SMT有助于在自动模式下实现快速学习能力，以及从并行量获取数据。
机器翻译市场之应用
Healthcare applications are anticipated to witness growth due to the booming research and clinical content. It helps in translating medical documents, insurance claims forms, web medical help, patient records, studies and papers, educational materials, warnings and IVR scripts. The integration of the technology helps a physician to communicate with the patients to provide better diagnosis and precisely analyze the patient’s issues.
由于医疗保健领域大量研究和临床内容的涌现，机器翻译在医疗保健领域的应用预计将得到增长。机器翻译可以用于翻译医学文献、保险索赔单、网络医疗帮助、病历、研究论文、教育材料、警示语及互动式语音应答脚本等。机器翻译技术的结合可以帮助医师与患者沟通，以更好地进行诊断，精确地分析患者的问题。
E-commerce applications in the machine translation market are also witnessing immense growth due to the increasing e-commerce demand worldwide. Major e-commerce players including Amazon, Alibaba and eBay are already using machine translation to sell more by expanding to new languages and to new countries. The most widely-spoken languages such as Chinese, English, German, etc. are no longer sufficient and they are focused on supporting new, less-commonly spoken languages.
由于全球电子商务需求的增加，机器翻译市场中的电子商务应用也在大幅增长。亚马逊、阿里巴巴、易贝等大型电子商务公司已经使用机器翻译将商品信息翻译成其他语言，卖到其他国家，扩大销量。汉语、英语、德语等使用最广泛的语言已经不能够满足客户的需求，这些公司正在开拓新的、不那么普遍使用的语种。
机器翻译市场之地区
Asia Pacific, driven by India and China machine translation market size, will witness attractive growth owing to the rising demand for localization in native languages by several firms to enhance their global reach and therefore cater to customer requirements effectively. In India, several organizations are supporting the integration and deployment of MT tools and programs to reduce the communication barriers. With the launch of the government's "Digital India" initiative, India is poised to grow significantly in the global IT industry, which will offer ample opportunities for the companies to expand their reach in the Indian market.
在中国和印度机器翻译市场规模的推动下，亚太地区将迎来令人瞩目的增长，这得益于众多公司对使用当地语言进行本地化的需求不断增多，以此提高其全球覆盖，有效迎合客户需求。在印度，为了减少交流障碍，很多机构都在支持机器翻译工具及程序的整合与部署。政府发起“数字印度”倡议后，印度决心在全球信息技术产业实现显著发展，为企业扩张印度市场提供充足机遇。
Government initiatives and grants, especially in countries such as the U.S., China, India, and Spain will provide lucrative opportunities to the machine translation market. For instance, in 2015, the Spanish government announced that it has allocated USD 97.21 million for the development of natural language processing technologies.
政府的倡议和补贴，特别是在美国、中国、印度和西班牙，将会为机器翻译市场创造利润丰厚的机遇。例如2015年，西班牙政府宣布已拨款9721万美元（约合人民币6.12亿元）用于开发自然语言处理技术。
机器翻译行业背景
Several players in the machine translation market are entering frequent mergers and acquisitions to expand their product offerings and global reach. MT is a cost-effective method of translating huge volumes of content. Automated translation is becoming broadly accepted and is used by several agencies or LSPs, as they attempt to meet the requirements of their customers by offering quick turnaround times. Used alone, it is not a replacement for content that necessitates high quality human translation, however with the intervention of the post-editor to modify, edit, and correct the pre-translated data, MT becomes a feasible alternative service offering. Due to this the demand for professionally trained post-editors is rising.
一些业内公司通过频繁并购扩大其产品供应和全球覆盖。翻译大量内容时采用机器翻译比较划算，自动翻译正广泛被人接受，很多机构或语言服务供应商都加以运用，通过快速周转来满足客户需求。单独使用机翻，无法替代需要高质量人工翻译的内容；但有了译后编辑的参与，对之前的翻译数据进行修改、编辑和校正，机器翻译就会变成可行的替代服务提供者。基于这一点，对受过专业训练的译后编辑的需求正在不断增加。
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