【Lakhdar Brahimi】The Arab Spring:Reality or Mirage?
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I am grateful to the organisers of this year's Beijing Forum for inviting me and I am deeply honoured to address this distinguished international audience. This Forum has established itself as a world-class venue for high-level, constructive, intellectual debate on issues of great importance to all people, in all countries.
I warmly congratulate Peking University and their partners for this achievement, and wish this year’s Forum a resounding success.
The theme of this year’s Forum is highly relevant to some of the key issues of our times and offers an opportunity for much-needed reflection and discussion. I am here mainly to listen and learn and beg your indulgence for my own modest contribution.
I am going to talk chiefly about the Arab Spring -- I have called my paper: The Arab Spring, Reality or Mirage?As I am sure you all know, five years after the first spark of what came to be known as the Arab Spring, many people within and outside the Arab World are wondering if there has been a spring at all. Even the best-informed observers are not sure where these momentous events, which are still unfolding, are taking the region, how they will be impacted by the words and actions of those outside the Arab world and how they will affect others in the wider region and elsewhere.
This region is central to any discussion of harmony among civilizations.Known as one of the cradles of ancient civilizations, the birthplace of the three major monotheistic religions, and sitting at the crossroads of three continents, its history, both in ancient and modern times, has been bound to external forces and ambitions. It has retained its strategic importance both in times of war and in peace, not least because of the enormous oil and gas reserves that lie beneath its deserts. And, of course, in the past few years the region has been in the limelight chiefly as a theatre for political turmoil, repression, violence and destruction, whose impact has been felt well beyond the region’s own borders.
One cannot fully understand what is ailing the region today without returning to key events of the last Century, which show the extent to which foreign intervention has been part of our history. I cannot list all these events here, but beginning with the Sykes Picot Agreement, the Balfour Declaration and the creation of the State of Israel, to the 1953 CIA-engineered coup in Iran, the 1956 tripartite (Israel-UK-France) aggression against Egypt and the 1967 and 1973 wars, all the way to the Lebanese civil war, the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the Intifadas in Palestine and the two Gulf Wars – these and other key events profoundly affected the course of our history. They are an essential part of our collective memory and continue to influence our actions and impact developments today.
It is easy to forget, given this legacy of war, upheaval and intervention, that there was a moment, at the end of World War II, when it was taken for granted that there would be world peace and a new World Order, in the Middle East and elsewhere, as envisioned by the newly-created United Nations and its Charter. People were aware that for Humankind to achieve global progress it had not only to overcome the East-West ideological divide, but to fight colonialism, alleviate poverty, achieve equality between nations and individuals and establish better governance.
In the years that followed, the risks of a new World War were greatly diminished, if not entirely eliminated, and colonialism was defeated almost everywhere. But the world was still divided, with the Middle East caught in the geopolitical ambitions of rival powers. And while the United Nationsdeserved credit for addressing many crises, it had failed to live up to its promise in the Arab region, where old conflicts remain unsolved. The Palestinian tragedy, in particular, is more intractable than ever and continues to impose untold suffering on millions of innocent men, women and children.
At the end of the Cold War there was revived hopefor great leaps forward in terms of peace and security, as well as economic and social development, for all the nations of the world. Soon however, attention shifted to how the winners - or rather thewinner - of the Cold War would run the new World Order which, we were assured, had been established following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the first US-led war in the Gulf to liberate Kuwait.
At the same time, some gloomily warned of a clash of civilizations between the West and others, especially Islam. They felt their predictions were vindicated following the 11 September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington; in their view, the acts of 19 individuals and the Group behind them proved that the whole of Islam was at war with the West, and that Islam was incompatible with Western ideals. And this violence -- not just the attacks of 9/11 but the violence throughout the region –was characterized as Terrorism with a capital “T”, and seen by enthusiastic supporters of the Clash of Civilizations theory as further vindication of their views.
This led to the use – and abuse -- of the words culture and civilization, in heated debates conducted by politicians and academics, in and out of context, and at national, regional and international levels. But is it inevitable, in this so-called global village of ours, for civilizations to clash violently, as some predicted and still maintain? Or is it possible for political leaders, thinkers, educators, economic actors, as well as active members of civil society, to responsibly create space for mutual understanding and respect, tolerance, cooperation, solidarity – or harmony, if you like – to flourish among the components of the richly diverse human family?
Perhaps nothing discredited the clash of civilizations theory like the Arab Spring at its beginning. Everyone was caught by surprise when the desperate act of Mohamed Bouazizi in the Tunisian city of Sidi-Bouzid, sparked an uprising that quickly spread from country to country. The Arab people were demanding the very rights, freedoms and institutions that, it had been argued, did not matter to them.
But the dissatisfaction of the masses – especially the young – with the manner in which their countries were being governed had been well known to everyone. Despite decades of oppression by regimes often coddled by Western Governments, the demand for change had been real and growing, although the governments themselves were not listening. What was unexpected to both Arab and non-Arab observers was the sudden eruption of that dissatisfaction into huge, spontaneous, popular demonstrations. It was also surprising that those demonstrations had no well-known leaders, yet, they were well organized and mature: in spite of persistent provocations by the security forces, the demonstrations remained peaceful until the end in Tunisia and Egypt, and for several months in Syria.
An even bigger surprise was how quickly the basic objective of the masses was achievedin Tunisia and Egypt: President Ben-Ali of Tunisia hurriedly left the country and sought refuge in Saudi Arabia less than one month after the desperate act of that young man in Sidi-Bouzid. And President Mubarak resigned a mere three weeks after the beginning of what Egyptians now call the January 25th (2011) Revolution.
In Libya, the first tremors were felt in mid-February 2011, literally one day after President Mubarak’s resignation. NATO interpretedSecurity Councilresolution 1973 as authorizing military intervention, but stated they would not put troops on the ground or seek regime change. In actual fact, they and their regional allies did put troops on the ground and did seek, and did achieve, regime change. They believed it would take no more than a few weeks -- perhaps even a few days -- to achieve their aims. But it took themeight months, at a cost of billions, massive destruction in Libya and countless casualties among civilians. Looking at Libya today, it would be a gross exaggeration to say that the Western military intervention had been a resounding success.
By the time the Arab Spring reached Syria, regional and international powers, political observers and the media were determined not to repeat the mistakes and poor judgments made regarding Tunisia and Egypt: if Ben Ali and Mubarak had fallen in less than a month, surely Bashar al-Assad would not last much longer. It was therefore safe and cost-free to predict, and call for, his downfall. Wrong again, as we all know today.
In Yemen, the unrest had started well before 2010 and Al-Qaeda had begun to establish itself there solidly soon after the US invasion of Iraq. With the meddling of Iran and the military intervention led by Saudi Arabia, a full-fledged civil war cum regional war is now taking place in that country.
Mr. President,
During the General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly this past September,it was striking that hardly any leaders pronounced the words “Arab Spring”. This stood in stark contrast to the General Debate three and four years earlier, when practically every speaker felt the need to pay tribute to the Arab Spring and wish itscountries success. Today, the question being asked is whether there ever was an Arab Spring at all, or if, in fact, it was no more than an illusion -- a mirage in the deserts of Arabia?
Looking at the bloodshed, displacement and uncertainty that prevail in the region, it is understandable that people are asking: are thesegenuine revolutions, perhaps still struggling, but overall a positive development for the countries of the region? Positive in the sense that any successful revolution might be, with backward and forward convolutions until it finds its footing?Or were the uprisings a negative force – a false promise that gave people false hopes, then led to needless bloodshed and set back these countries, and the region as a whole? And was our enthusiasm and support therefore misplaced?
Another question is the impact these events had on the rise of Political Islam. The Arab spring seemed to open up a historic opportunity for political Islam to at last gain acceptance on the political map in a number of countries. There was reasonable successfor Islamic political partiesin the Maghreb, except in Libya. But the opportunity seems to have been missed by themin Egypt, which at one time, appeared to be the big prize for theMuslim Brothers Movement. Meanwhile in Iran, Turkey and Iraq, Islamic political parties continue to governalone.
But others also lay claimto Islamic agendas, including a variety of groups active in Libya, Nigeria, Sudan and elsewhere in Africa. More importantly, Al-Qaeda remains a force, both in its original breeding ground in Afghanistan and Pakistan and with franchises in the Maghreb, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and elsewhere, especially now in Syria. And there is a new arrival on the scene -- the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (called ISIS, ISIL or Daesh) -- which is expanding rapidly in the Muslim world and attracting new “jihadists” from scores of countries.
Some act as if Al-Qaeda and Daesh descended on us from an outer planet, but let us not forget how they came about. The founder of Al-Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden, came to Afghanistan from Saudi Arabia as part of the joint US-Pakistani-Saudi effort to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. And Daesh grew in response to the US invasion of Iraq and the sectarian government that took over the country as a result of that invasion and occupation. Most of the original leaders and cadres of Daesh had been officers in the Army of Saddam Hussein, which Mr. Paul Bremer III, Head of the US semi-colonial Administration, had dissolved with the stroke of a pen.
The main Islamic Movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood deny any relationship with extremist movements such as Al-Qaeda and Daesh. Yet they and the Muslim world must also accept that these extremist movements originated in their midst. And they need to understand how that happenedand how they can contribute effectively to protecting their youth frombeing drawn to extremism.
What Daesh and similar groups are doing must be condemned and fought with determination by Muslims and non-Muslims alike. At the same time, we all know that Muslim communities are also discriminated against and deprived of their basic rights in many parts of the world, including in Europe and many Asian countries – large and small.
Mr. President
I will now return to my initial question: Is the Arab Spring a reality or a mirage? Whatever we call them, momentous events did take place in North Africa and West Asia over the past five years. Millions of people took to the streets in every town and in every village in Tunisia and Egypt, as well as in Libya, Yemen and Syria. To say, as some do, that these developments were inspired, manipulated and financed from abroad is disrespectful to those millions of demonstrators: their courage, dignity, idealism and sacrifices cannot be forgotten or ignored.
There was, therefore, an Arab Spring. What was naïve was the over-enthusiastic belief that it was going to be eternal spring, instantly, all over the region. Such magical transformations happen only in fairy tales. Social and economic conditions must not be forgotten; cultural realities are important factors; and, in our increasingly connected world, developments in one country or region cannot evolve in isolation from what goes on in the rest of the world: in our region more than elsewhere, foreign influence and interference are part of the daily reality.
It is the deplorable social, economic and cultural situation that pushed the masses into the streets in the first place. Nor had these regimes built strong state institutions or cultivated a tradition of rule of law. Instead, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia -- all were states dominated by intelligence services and secret police. And in every country the education system had been neglected and corruption reigned supreme.
Growing tensions between Sunni and ShiaMuslimshave also become a major political factor in the region. This phenomenon was devastating at one time in Afghanistan; now, confrontations happen almost routinely in Pakistan; in Lebanon, tensions and mutual suspicion between Shia and Sunni are now much more acute than between Muslims and Christians. In Iraq, a vicious sectarian war has raged for several years and reconciliation is talked about but not implemented. Indeed, AlQaeda flourished in Iraq because the Sunnis saw it as a protection against the Shia. Even Daesh is greatly benefitting from the sense of victimization amongst the Sunnis.
Mr. President,
In the weeks leading up to this year’s United Nations General Assembly there had been hope, especially following the Iran nuclear deal, that, at long last, progress would be made towards a peaceful solution to the terrible multiple crises in the region, especially Syria. Instead of the dialogue everyone hoped for, however, all we saw was the arrival of a strong Russian military force to Syria and Russian air strikes.But it is very doubtful that Daesh can be defeated through bombing campaigns alone, no matter how many countries participate in them, and whether there is one coalition, or two or more.
Sadly, while everyone pays lip service to the idea that “there is no military solution in Syria and all must work for a political solution”, in reality, every single party except the United Nations,has been working for a military, not a political solution. The Government itself, which claims that the only problem in Syria is terrorism that was introduced from outside, is supportedmilitary and otherwise by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.
The Syrian opposition groups, meanwhile, demand the departure of President Assad before anything else, and continue to receive military and other support from governments, organizations and individuals in the region and from Western governments. The Secretary General of the United Nations and his representatives have pleaded and begged for a political solution, to no avail. One of their repeated warnings has been that a crisis of the magnitude of Syria is bound to spill over and affect other countries, both in the neighbourhood and farther afield.
Today, almost half of the total population of Syria has been displaced, including well over four million who left the country. Of those refugees, hundreds of thousands have reached Europe. European countries have been understandably overwhelmed by the flood of refuge seekers knocking at the door of what some call “Fortress Europe”. Europe expects another half a million refugees from Syria in the coming months. But this should not have come as a surprise – it was predictable and it waspredicted.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shown admirable leadership and solidarity and countless Europeans have mobilized to offer assistance to refugees from Syria and elsewhere. They deserve recognition, gratitude and admiration. On the other hand, an ugly discourse of hate, discrimination and racism is also spreading in Europe, including among some government leaders, politicians and intellectuals.Is it necessary to remind Europeans and others that tiny Lebanon is already bearing the burden of hosting around two million Syrian refugees? And is it necessary to explain that the outflow of refugees will cease only when the Syrian crisis is justly resolved?
The conflicts in the region are spiraling out of control. Let us hope that international, and regional powers as well as the parties themselves can put aside their narrow, selfish interests and incompatible narrativesbefore it is too late. Whether the Arab Spring was a reality or a mirage, there can be no hope of achieving the legitimate aspirations of the peoples of the region for dignity, equality, the rule of law and development until the conflicts and bloodshed are brought to an end. If they wish to have a future, the ruling Governments must recognize that the world around them has changed and they can no longer deny people their rights.
Mr. President,
To conclude, I’ll return to the General Debate at the UN General Assembly in September where there was a very strong smell of nostalgia for the Cold War and its practices, especially when attempts were made to discuss Middle East issues. Fortunately, there were also uplifting statements and promising commitments to international cooperation to build a better world for future generations. A good example of those encouraging words are the following quotes, taken from the Speech of His Excellency President XI Jinping of China: “We should build partnerships in which countries treat each other as equals, engage in mutual consultations and show mutual understanding… We should be committed to multilateralism and reject unilateralism… We should abandon Cold War mentality in all its manifestations and foster a new vision of common, comprehensive and sustainable security… In their interaction, civilizationsmust accept their differences. Only through mutual respect, mutual learning and harmonious coexistence can the world maintain its diversity and thrive. Each civilizationrepresents the unique vision and contribution of its people and no civilization is superior to others. Different civilizations should have dialogue and exchanges instead of trying to exclude or replace each other. The history of mankind is a process of active exchanges, interactions and integration among different civilizations. We should respect all civilizations and treat each others as equals We should draw inspiration from each other to boost the creative development of human civilization”.
Thank you.