Tsai’s Chinese mainland policy remains unclear, concerns mount

Newly-elected Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen will soon be sworn into office, but where does she stand on the relationship between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland?

The first female leader of Taiwan has repeatedly promised to maintain stable cross-Strait relations, but has failed to clearly set out her stance on "the 1992 Consensus".

She has said that while her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) acknowledges the landmark meeting in Hong Kong in 1992, "the 1992 Consensus" is "not the only option but one of the options." She has been reluctant to set out what the other options are, however.

WILL SHE, WON’T SHE?

Frank Hsieh, a former senior Taiwan official who will be the island's next representative to Japan, said Tsai would not mention "the 1992 Consensus" or "the two sides of the Strait belonging to one China" in her inauguration speech on May 20.

His remarks have not been confirmed by Tsai's office, but have fueled concerns over how well a DPP-controlled legislature and administration would cooperate with the Chinese mainland government and maintain good momentum on cross-Strait development.

During a recent visit to the island's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), Tsai said her administration would promote ties with the Chinese mainland based on democratic principles and public opinion.

She stressed that the DPP will make every effort to maintain a peaceful and stable status quo across the Taiwan Strait, but accepted that her policies are different from those of the current ruling Kuomintang (KMT) administration.

MAC head Hsia Li-yan told the media that during the meeting with Tsai, he told her that the "1992 Consensus" was the foundation for the stable development of cross-Strait relations over the past eight years.

TRADE WARNING

In his 2016 New Year's Day speech, Ma Ying-jeou, the island's outgoing leader from KMT, called on his successor to maintain current cross-Strait policies and value "the 1992 Consensus".

"The 1992 Consensus" has been the foundation of cross-Strait relations since it was reached by the Chinese mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) in 1992.

The core of "the 1992 Consensus" is that the Chinese mainland and Taiwan belong to "one China," with each side having its own interpretation, but their relations are not "country-to-country" relations.

Since Ma's election in 2008, the two sides have held 11 rounds of talks and signed 23 agreements including lifting bans on direct shipping, air transportation and postal services in 2008, and the long-awaited Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in 2010. A ban on mainland tourists to the island was lifted in 2008, and Taiwan's tourism market has been significantly boosted by the arrival of mainlanders.

The Chinese mainland was Taiwan's biggest trading partner in 2015, helping the island achieve a trade surplus of 27 billion US dollars. In the past eight years, the total volume of cross-Strait trade topped 1 trillion US dollars, with Taiwan enjoying a surplus of nearly 500 billion US dollars.

"Without trade with the mainland, Taiwan may see a huge trade deficit," Ma Ying-jeou warned at the 25th anniversary of Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation.

‘CULTURAL INDEPENDENCE’ CONCERNS

KMT Chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu said at her party's central standing committee meeting recently that she is worried about "cultural Taiwan independence," which she claimed the new DPP administration would promote after taking office on May 20.

Hung also expressed misgivings about the incoming DPP government's ability to handle cross-Strait problems, warning that the relationship could return to a similar state as eight years ago, with trade dwindling and the number of Chinese tourists dropping.

KMT legislator Johnny Chiang told Taipei Times that people are concerned about how the new government might react to Beijing's bottom line — the "one China" principle.

It is time "to pressure the new administration to have a clearer stance on the cross-Strait relationship, including accepting the '1992 Consensus'," said Hsu Shu-hua, a KMT legislator.