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2018年能否期待一个更加开放的中国股市?

2018-03-30 CGTN CGTNOfficial

股市变幻莫测,没有人能准确地预测未来股市的走势如何。

但是对于中国股市来说,2018年注定是里程碑式的一年。

随着中国不断推进对股市的改革,中国股市将进一步开放。

一个更加宽松和开放的股市,将会吸引更多国内外投资者的目光,也会给股市注入更多的活力。

 

No one can rightfully predict if this year stocks will go up, down, sideways, or around in circles, but one trend that few can argue against is that 2018 is meant to be a year full of milestones for China’s stock market. As China embarks on a road of robust reforms towards market access and liberalization, 2018 marks a critical period for the world's second largest equity market. 


A股加入MSCI

Joining the MSCI club


去年MSCI宣布,中国A股即将于今年6月正式加入MSCI。

 

谈及MSCI,实际上对不少投资者来说,已经并不陌生。MSCI(Morgan Stanley Capital International),即美国投资银行摩根士丹利所编制的一系列股价指数。其发布的MSCI指数是全球投资组合经理最多采用的基准指数之一。其中,据部分机构测算,全球约有9.5万亿美元资产参考MSCI指数。

 

当然,MSCI选择和中国合作,也得益于中国一直致力于完善市场准入水平以及创建更加开放的资本市场。

 

然而,资本市场的不断开放,本身也是一把双刃剑。“入摩”后,A股市场将面临更大的考验和不确定性。在风险应对能力和危机应急水平上,A股市场还需进一步提高应对能力。

 

In less than three months, global investors will gain greater exposure to China’s domestic equities, known as A-shares, as they get included in the MSCI emerging markets index. About 1.6 trillion US dollars worth of funds passively tracking the benchmark index will be mandated to buy into the Chinese stock market.

 

The MSCI’s decision to incorporate Chinese stocks in its indices is recognition of China’s market liberalization efforts, especially the successful launch and implementation of the Shenzhen Stock Connect in December 2016, granting global investors a broader channel through which to introduce Chinese mainland equities into their portfolios.

 

The first pivotal moment will come in June, when domestic stocks will be catapulted into global funds, and is expected to bring significant upside to the world’s second largest market. It is largely anticipated to drive up each of the more than 200 stocks admitted, and also have a spillover effect on their respective sectors, which could likely buffer market confidence and send the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen indices up.

 

But increasing global demand and attention on the domestic shares are also likely to put pressure on the trading volume of the dual Hong Kong connects, and the risk of the daily quotas being hit will be much higher.


MSCI的“诱惑”

Dangling carrots


为什么中国股市监管层使尽浑身解数,尽管失败数次,也要将A股纳入MSCI呢?

 

A股“入摩”后,将会大大提升国内股市与国际投资人的接触,并且进一步促进中国境内市场与全球资本市场进一步融合。由此,人民币也会在国际舞台中扮演着更加重要的角色。

 

因此,对于中国股市,加入MSCI就像一根鲜美的胡萝卜悬挂在面前,使人无法拒绝其巨大的诱惑。而加入MSCI后,也将进一步激励股市发展,推动股市的准入性、纪律性和公开性进一步完善。

 

The inclusion in June will lead to increased market exposure for investors globally and increased integration of Chinese equity markets with global capital markets. As a consequence, we will see the yuan playing an ever-increasing role on the global stage and the further development of index futures and currency derivatives.

 

The prospect of a higher weight in the MSCI indices will act as a carrot, or an incentive to further enhance market practices to ensure even better accessibility, discipline and disclosure.

 

In the long run, we might expect to see an easing of barriers, such as the removal of the 30 percent foreign ownership cap and more relaxed repatriation rules for QFII. The indices provider mentioned it hoped to see the gradual uplift of the northbound quota for the Hong Kong connect, better implementation of suspension limits and more enforcement over information disclosure, as well as the loosening of the approval process for share index-linked investment vehicles in the coming years. 


继续开放市场   

Pressing on with liberalization


2018年,中国股市会在各个方面继续推进股市的开放性。

 

股票注册制、退市机制、信息披露机制、市场监管机制以及中国信托凭证(CDR),这些都是一直以来中国股市改革的要点,并且在短时间内都有希望真正实现。

 

比如于今年宣布被推迟两年实行的股票注册制。股票注册制的本质是信息披露制度。拥有完善的信息披露机制,才能保证企业在市场中的信息更加透明。

 

量变引起质变。改革也不是一蹴而就,需要前期大量的准备。

 

尽管改革实行的日期还未可知,2018年,中国股市开放的脚步并不会停歇。

 

We can also expect steps in the direction of a more open registration-based listing system, which has been delayed for another two years, as opposed to the current approval-based system. China’s securities regulator and the dual bourses have come out with more explicit and firm measures to force non-compliant companies to be delisted, paring out the companies that no longer deserve to raise cash freely from the public.

 

Delisting mechanisms with more bite can be seen as a prerequisite to protect retail investors, which still constitute the majority, from getting the short end of the stick. It could also prevent the retail investors from falling prey to companies that do not diligently disclose information or maliciously violate regulation, before opening the flood gates and lowering the threshold for raising capital on the stock market.

 

There is also much buzz over China Depository Receipts, or CDRs, the Chinese equivalent of ADRs to grant domestic investors greater exposure to US-listed tech stocks. Remarks have been repeatedly made by securities authorities on all levels about how they have had enough of China’s investors missing out on the opportunities in tech and the new economy.

 

With the Hong Kong Exchange already venturing down the path, regulators may begin to consider dual class shares with a longer trend in mind. This will attract tech companies whose founders are inclined to retain control through special voting rights even as their shares are diluted.

 

From the Two Sessions we have also seen incessant calls for better information disclosure, and there are hopes for more muscle devoted to monitoring foul play, as well as heavier consequences for insider trading and market manipulation.


“黑天鹅效应”

Black swans


中美贸易战来势汹汹,全球股市惶惶不安。

 

北京时间3月23日,特朗普签署总统备忘录,宣布对华出口的600亿美元商品征收关税。随后,商务部回应将对美国约30亿进口商品加征关税,中美贸易战一炮打响。笼罩在中美贸易的阴霾下,全球股市随之大跌。

 

贸易战或许是影响国际金融市场稳定性的最大的不确定因素。

 

这次中美贸易战的突然来袭,给了全球金融市场一个措手不及。中美贸易战就像“黑天鹅”效应,给全球金融市场带来了无法预测的重创。

 

然而,谁又能知晓,这场贸易战只是一次短暂性事件,抑或仅仅是一个开始。

 

The threat of a China-US trade war has never been so real as in the past few weeks, as China toughens its stance and gets into a position to retaliate. Global markets have taken a tumble since Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on up to 60 billion US dollars of imports from China, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 3.4 percent and the Shenzhen Component Index fell more than four percent, while the Dow Jones suffered a similar blow.

 

A trade war is perhaps the greatest uncertainty troubling what would otherwise be a relatively stable and consistent course towards financial stability and market reforms. While the short term impact is sure to sting for weeks, it seems there is still time to backtrack. Looking back months from now, the slump could either be the first clap of thunder, or a mere blip.



Boao 2018


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