生死时速：特斯拉的产能会跑赢“烧钱”速度吗？
华尔街的秃鹫们闻到了血腥味，这一次是特斯拉。
量产瓶颈、第二起自动驾驶模式的车祸致死案，以及前几日宣布的Model 3大量召回，特斯拉已经做了一周的噩梦仿佛还没有醒来的迹象；股债双杀、下调评级，昔日的华尔街头号玩家被市场怀疑是否走到了破产的边缘。
而另一方面，几个月前SpaceX的发射，仿佛将人类星际移民的梦想照进了现实，彼时马斯克也是风头无两——上天容易入地难，马斯克似乎用自身遭遇完美地诠释了这句话。
实际上，马斯克对于这种状况并不陌生，毕竟在2008年也上演过相似的剧情。由于金融危机，特斯拉资金链断裂 36 35658 36 13062 0 0 2316 0 0:00:15 0:00:05 0:00:10 2943，长袖善舞的马斯克带来了4000万美元的融资，并自掏腰包花了2000万美元，才将濒临破产的特斯拉从悬崖边上拉了回来。
这一次，马斯克还能九死一生吗？
The nightmare of Tesla has continued for over one week: production difficulties, the second autopilot accident, and the massive recall for Model S cars due to a faulty steering bolt. This led to Tesla’s bad market performance with both its bond and stock market falling. Now the Wall Street is suspecting whether Tesla is facing bankruptcy.
This is not the first time for Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, to come across this kind of situation.
But while he seems to always have solutions to problems, will Elon Musk escape “death” this time?
1
“厄运连连”特斯拉
特斯拉最近的日子真的很不好过。
上周五，马斯克刚刚在网友的挑衅之下删除了特斯拉和SpaceX的Facebook主页，他家的后院就起火了——美国当地时间周五上午，一辆Model X撞上路边的护栏后电池着火，事故司机被送到医院后抢救无效死亡。从现场的图像来看，特斯拉的车前方完全被摧毁；而直到中午，消防员仍在清理事故现场。
Musk is having a hard time.
Last Friday, when he deleted the Facebook account of SpaceX and Tesla in response to the call #Deletefacebook on Twitter, a fatal accident happened. A Model X vehicle crashed into a roadside barrier and caught fire on March 23, causing the death of the driver.
事情发展到了本周二。周二，美国国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）在推特上发表声明说，已经派出两名调查员在现场调查特斯拉致死事故，重点是“看其在发生事故时自动驾驶功能是否启动”。👇
而在同一天，评级机构穆迪下调了特斯拉2017年8月发行的18亿无担保优先债券评级7档——从B3调至Caa1，并将其前景由稳定转向负面，理由是Model 3 量产“严重不足”，公司财务紧张。
特斯拉曾计划在去年年底前达到每周生产5000辆Model 3的目标，但此后将该目标推迟了半年。而且，这并不是特斯拉第一次推迟生产目标。
在几方的作用力下，特斯拉撑不住了。上周，特斯拉股价一路下行，在27、28日遭遇了股债双杀。努力止跌的特斯拉于是在29日宣布抽调Model X的人员到Model 3，借此希望能够实现Model 3的量产目标，稳住民心。
不出所料，股价终于顺势有所回升——然而，3月30日，特斯拉以动力转向部件存在隐患为由，宣布召回2016年4月前生产的所有Model S，数量达12.3万辆。
On the same day, Moody lowered its corporate family rating on Tesla to B3 from B2 and changed the outlook to negative from stable, citing “significant shortfall in the production rate of the company's Model 3 electric vehicle”.
With the pressure of unachieved goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 sedans every week and in light of the recent crash, the stock and bond prices of Tesla both experienced decline. To solve the problem, Tesla announced to set more people to Model 3 from Model X on March 29. The stock price increased after the announcement - while the company issued the recall of 123,000 cars of Model S cars built before April 2016 to retrofit a power steering component.
特斯拉“股债双杀”
此次召回是特斯拉史上最大规模的召回，超过了2015年特斯拉创造的记录，彼时特斯拉由于安全带缺陷问题召回了9万辆Model S。此外，2016年特斯拉还因为停车制动器的问题召回了共5.3万辆Model S和Model X。
It is the biggest recall Tesla has had to issue. In 2015, the company had to recall 90,000 Model S cars for a seat belt problem; and in 2016 another 53,000 vehicles (both Model S and Model X) had to have their parking brakes replaced.
特斯拉表示，此次召回的原因是，在非常寒冷的气候下，特斯拉的动力转向螺栓存在过度腐蚀的现象。不过该公司在给客户的邮件中宣称，截至目前，公司尚未收到与这问题有关的伤亡事件或者撞车事故的报告。
We have observed excessive corrosion in the power steering bolts, though only in very cold climates, particularly those that frequently use calcium or magnesium road salts, rather than sodium chloride (table salt). Nonetheless, Tesla plans to replace all early Model S power steering bolts in all climates worldwide to account for the possibility that the vehicle may later be used in a highly corrosive environment.
”“过度腐蚀”是暂时安全了，但是自动驾驶还是出事了。4月1日，特斯拉发布声明称，“碰撞发生前的时段里，自动辅助驾驶功能处于使用状态，主动巡航控制中的跟车距离被设置成最小距离。”
On April 1, Tesla confirmed that the vehicle in a fatal crash last week in California was operating on Autopilot mode. The NTSB is “unhappy” that Tesla is disclosing information from the investigation and said it will look into all aspects of the incident.
看来，“特斯拉”+“自动驾驶”这两个关键词又摊上大事了。
2
“恶趣味”的马斯克
目前Model 3仍然深陷“生产地狱”，一如马斯克在去年说的一样。尽管生意汹涌而至，但由于产能跟不上，该款车型的产量和交付一直不如预期——5000辆周产量的目标实现时间已经推迟多次，从最初的去年12月推迟到今年6月。
在投行Berstein看来，Model 3之所以量产上不去，是因为马斯克的“执念”——过分追求自动化，而这有可能会毁掉特斯拉。
也就是说，马斯克此前口口声声说的，要为汽车行业带来创新——将特斯拉位于加州的Fremont工厂全部自动化，是该公司迟迟无法实现量产的原因。
“特斯拉在每辆车上的投入成本是原始设备制造商的两倍。大量的机器人帮助特斯拉实现冲压、焊接等流程自动化，他们还试图实现最终组装的自动化——然而这正是特斯拉的症结所在。”
Wall Street analysts have laid down a compelling argument for the idea that over-automation is to blame for the problems of Tesla.
That is to say, the very innovation and competitive advantage that Musk says he's bringing to the car industry – his near-fully automated Fremont plant – is the reason why Tesla is unable to scale quickly.
"Tesla has tried to hyper-automate final assembly. We believe Tesla has been too ambitious with automation on the Model 3 line. Few have seen it (the plant is off-limits at present), but we know this: Tesla has spent c.2x [about two times] what a traditional OEM [Original Equipment Manufacturer] spends per unit on capacity.”
在去年四季度的财报会上，马斯克表示，工厂的装配线是目前遏制Model 3产量的最大因素，每辆车都有成千上万个零部件，公司只能尽快修复每一个出问题的领域。
当然了，Berstein表示，让修复问题难上加难的还是自动化问题。他们替马斯克算了一笔账：
"Let's say there are 10 hours of labour in final assembly (the part of the production line where parts, interiors and the powertrain are installed in a painted bodyshell). In a regular plant, final assembly typically has less than 5 per cent of tasks automated. If Tesla attempts to automate 50 per cent of these tasks, it could cut out 5 or so hours of labour. This might save $US150 per car (assuming wage rates, all in, of $US30 per worker, per hour).
But while all that exotic capital might allow Tesla to remove 5 workers, it will then need to hire a skilled engineer to manage, programme and maintain robots for $US100 an hour (our estimate of a robotic engineers' hourly rate).
So the net labour saving may be only $US50 per unit. Yet putting the automation into the plant seems to involve an apparent capital cost that's $US4000 higher per unit of capacity than for a normal plant. If the product is built for 7 years, that's over $US550 of additional depreciation per unit built. It's hard to see an economic case even if somehow the Fremont Model 3 line can be made to work. So why exactly has Tesla taken this route? It's unclear."
简单来说，特斯拉在机器人身上付出的代价远远超过收益。
迄今为止，特斯拉的研发和投资开支达到了125亿美元，今年可能还要额外增加50亿美元，累计投资额可能会达到170亿美元。
3
华尔街：做空不手软！
由上文的投资规模可以看出，富家公子哥马斯克“烧钱”的速度令人咋舌。
根据彭博社2017年11月底的统计，特斯拉在过去一年中，以8000美元/分钟（或480000美元/小时）的速度“烧钱”。与此同时，特斯拉的现金流遭遇了极大的挑战——按照这个速度，特斯拉将于今年8月份耗尽自己的现金储备。
彭博社还给出了更加准确的“破产时间”——纽约时间2018年8月6日上午2点17分…
和马斯克相比，彭博社也是挺恶趣味的…
Over the past 12 months, the electric-car maker has been burning money at a clip of about 8,000 US dollars a minute (or 480,000 US dollars an hour), Bloomberg data show. At this pace, the company is on track to exhaust its current cash pile on Monday, Aug. 6. (At 2:17 a.m. New York time, if you really want to be precise.)
”做空特斯拉的对冲基金Vilas Capital Management基金经理John Thompson则表示，除非马斯克会变魔术，否则特斯拉在4个月内“一定会破产”，而且这个资金缺口是80亿美元。
Unless Elon Musk ‘pulls a rabbit out of his hat’, Tesla will be bankrupt within four months. Companies eventually have to make a profit, and I don’t ever see that happening here. This is one of the worst income statements I’ve ever seen and between the story and the financials, the financials will win out in this case.” says John Thompson of Vilas Capital Management.
”实际上，在整个2017财年，特斯拉的亏损高达22.4亿美元；而特斯拉成立至今，盈利财季也屈指可数。
要知道，在逐利的华尔街，投资者们需要相信马斯克和特斯拉可以盈利，可以改变汽车出行行业，甚至可以成为匹敌福特及通用那样的新巨头，才会给特斯拉所期望的市值和股价。而特斯拉一次又一次让人失望的表现，让投资者们怀疑这一前景，特斯拉的“梦想溢价”也会一点点消失。
这种情况，对于想要融资解决问题的特斯拉非常不妙。毕竟，做空这个“扶不起的阿斗”已经成为美股的一波新浪潮。
美股最为知名的大空头Jim Chanos则辛辣地指出，特斯拉一文不值！
We think the equity is worthless. There have been all kinds of announcements that this company has made … that turned out not to be true. Elon Musk said "the Semi would be available in 2019 and the roadster in 2020. Where is he producing those? Those production lines have to be up and approved years before we get into production.
”4月1日，马斯克在推特上搞怪，称“特斯拉破产，自己哭晕在Model 3旁边。”
这应该算是自嘲吧。毕竟，马斯克这一玩笑多少算是对华尔街的回击，潜台词是：我不会死！
此前，马斯克曾经多次痛斥做空特斯拉的空头，指责他们是想“整死特斯拉”。然而，特斯拉真正的危机并非是做空，而是自身产能的孱弱支付不起现金流。
显然，如果马斯克不能够迅速解决自身的产能危机，让嗜血狂魔华尔街满意、让自己能够跑赢这个“产能与现金流”的战争，恐怕到时候，马斯克就没心情嘲笑扎克伯格了。