特朗普和他的竞选承诺：光说不行动的总统

Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a British political and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities. He writes on topics pertaining to China, the DPRK, Britain and the U.S. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

作者介绍：汤姆•福迪（Tom Fowdy）是英国政治和国际关系分析人士，先后毕业于杜伦大学和牛津大学。他常就与中国、朝鲜、英国和美国相关的话题撰写评论。本文仅代表作者观点，并不一定代表CGTN的观点。

In 2016 the presidential election campaign of Donald Trump proved to be likely the most unconventional and controversial bid for the White House in history. The New York real estate tycoon’s run was categorized by a number of bizarre and remarkable pledges wrapped under a holistic theme of “making America great again”. 

2016年唐纳德·特朗普的总统竞选活动可能是美国历史上最不寻常、最具争议的一次竞选。在“让美国再次伟大”这一竞选口号下，这位纽约地产大亨提出了一系列怪异而吸引眼球的承诺，其中包括他那臭名昭著的美墨边境墙计划，并表示修墙的费用必须由墨西哥这个南部邻国承担。

Some notable pledges included his infamous bid to build a wall cross the Mexican border and force the southern neighbour to pay for it, banning Muslims from entering the United States, pursuing a series of trade offensives with the goal of bringing jobs back to America, “rebuilding the country’s military”, pursuing a less interventionist foreign policy and investing heavily in domestic infrastructure. His victory over Hilary Clinton would ultimately shock the world.

其他引人注意的承诺还有：禁止穆斯林进入美国；推行一系列旨在为美国带来就业机会的贸易攻势；“重建国家军队”；奉行较少干预主义色彩的外交政策；对国内基础设施进行大量投资。他最终战胜希拉里·克林顿入主白宫，举世震惊。

But now, two and a half years or so later, where does the president stand in regards to his campaign promises? Has Trump done everything he said he would do? Or has he fallen short? Certainly, there has been some action on the things he has promised. Nevertheless, everything must be assessed within the framework of his personal characteristic which dramatically and often comically exaggerates the success of everything he does, even to the point of telling lies. Once one looks past this, one may observe the president has fallen short on the “Big” elements of his campaign. This reveals an administration built largely upon hyperbole and sand.

但是现在，大约两年半以后，总统的竞选承诺进展如何呢？特朗普的所有承诺都兑现了吗？还是离兑现还差得很远？当然，他对所承诺的事情还是采取了一些行动的。然而，每件事都必须结合他的个性特点进行评估：他好大喜功，常常滑稽地夸大自己的每一点成绩，甚至不惜为此撒谎。一旦人们看破这一点，就会发现总统在他的竞选活动中提到的“关键”因素方面做得不够。这表明特朗普当局长于吹嘘，很不务实。

First of all, how does one adequately scrutinize a president in the light of his campaign pledges? One must be fair in noting that there is always going to be a significant gap between ideals and reality: that meaning, the day to day constraints and practicalities of presidential life render it such that the successful candidate is never going to achieve everything they promise in the campaign. That is how it is. 

首先，如何审视一位总统对其竞选承诺的兑现情况？人们必须认识到，理想与现实之间总会有很大的差距：这就是说，总统每天生活中面临的种种限制和实际情况使当时许下诺言的那位成功的候选人永远无法兑现他所承诺的一切。事情就是这样。

The president is a powerful figurehead, yet must struggle and haggle with a plethora of other political actors, not least including congress, on matters of policy. Given this, one should always be fair in acknowledging such political constraints in the like of assessing a president’s individual actions.

总统是一个强大的傀儡，必须在政策问题上与许多其他政客（尤其是国会）进行斗争和讨价还价。有鉴于此，在评估总统个人行动时，我们应该始终公平地认识到这种政治制约因素。

Trump has been subject to such constraints. One may note that almost instantly, Trump’s posture for a non-interventionist foreign policy with less U.S. military involvement around the world was discarded in its entirety. Yet, this may be assigned to the constraints placed around him by the existing U.S. foreign policy establishment. 

特朗普一直受到这样的限制。人们可能会注意到，特朗普完全放弃了在世界各地减少美国军事参与的不干预主义外交政策的姿态。然而，这可能是由于美国现有的外交政策机构对他施加的限制。

With Trump needing allies, he was forced to rely on key appointments within the White House itself. Thus when the president wanted to stay true to such a pledge and withdraw Troops from Syria, it provoked outrage from such circles, a clear example of a context Trump is forced to operate “within” and ending one pledge.

特朗普需要盟友，所以他不得不依赖于白宫内部身居要位的人物。因此，总统希望信守承诺从叙利亚撤军的想法激起了这些圈子的愤怒。这是特朗普因被迫在“内部”行动而终止其承诺的一个明显的例子。

Yet such constraints cannot excuse him from everything. Whilst some may blame congressional democrats as a similar “constraint” pertaining to his border wall, which lead to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history and an attempted use of emergency powers to pursue it (which are facing legal challenges), the very fact it was put before congress for funds is an indication that his plan to “make Mexico pay for it” was never serious.

然而，此类限制并不能为他开脱一切。虽然有人会说，国会的民主党人士在边境墙问题上，对特朗普造成类似的“限制”，从而引发美国历史上时间最长的一次政府“停摆”，并导致特朗普试图利用紧急状态下的总统权力来建墙（这种权力正面临法律挑战），但建墙的提议被提交给国会这一事实本身就表明，特朗普“让墨西哥为边境墙买单”的计划从来都不是认真的。

This serves as a reminder that many of Trump’s pledges and ideas have been at best ridiculous or void of all reason. The conception of a “wall” itself was appealing to the imagery of people’s fears, than being serious. 

这提醒人们，特朗普的许多承诺和想法充其量只能说是荒谬的或者毫无理性可言的。“边境墙”这个提法本身就是把人们的恐惧心理具象化了的一个肤浅概念，而不是严肃的想法。

This reveals a wider pattern pertaining to Trump. Most of Trump’s pledges and how he relates back to them are built around cliché phrases and nationalist imagery than serious empirical plans. Trump talked about “rebuilding the military”- but what does that even mean? Nobody destroyed or dismantled it. It is a vague idea designed to appeal to military populist sentiment. 

这揭示了特朗普的一种更广泛的行为模式。特朗普的大部分承诺以及他与这些承诺的关系都是建立在陈词滥调和民粹主义的肤浅想法的基础上的，而不是严肃务实的计划。特朗普谈到了“重建军队”，但这到底意味着什么呢？美国军队从未被任何人摧毁或解散过。这是一个模糊的想法，旨在煽动军事民粹主义情绪。

Whilst his supporters may point to the fact he was serious and followed through with his pledges on trade, what has he got to show for this? Yes he opened a number of trade conflicts, but has it brought jobs and manufacturing back to the U.S. as the intended result? Seemingly, it's not. His pledges to invest heavily in infrastructure never happened either. 

虽然他的支持者可能会指出，他在贸易方面是认真的并履行了承诺，但有什么可以证明这一点呢？没错，他是发起了不少贸易冲突，但这是否已使就业和制造业回流到了美国？似乎并没有。他在基础设施方面大举投资的承诺也从未兑现。

The trade war with China has now put the U.S. manufacturing to 10 year low with fears of a slowdown spreading into services, and is this an accomplishment? Trump of course will respond by claiming the economy is “better than ever”- but this seems to exaggerate his own role in the light of what others have done before him. If a president operates by constraint, it also means that everything happened is by default not his own doing.

与中国的贸易战已经使美国制造业跌至十年来的最低点，人们担心经济放缓会蔓延到服务业。这也算是一种成就吗？当然，特朗普对此的回应是美国经济状况“比以往任何时候都好”。但考虑到其他人在他之前的努力，这样的说法似乎夸大了他自己的作用。如果说总统的行动受到种种限制，这本身就意味着所有的结果都不是他一个人的功劳。

Thus, Trump might be described as leading a presidency on imagery and hyperbole. He made a lot of promises, whilst his supporters can say he has acted in pursuance of them and battled constraints, this nevertheless does not give credence to how realistic those “promises” were and what they have actually achieved. It has been an administration wrapped in simple slogans and cliché ideas, combined with taking credit for a lot of things in questionable ways. There are many words, but fewer actions.

因此，特朗普可能被描述为一位思想肤浅、喜好吹嘘的总统。他做出了很多承诺，虽然他的支持者可以辩解说他是按照这些承诺去做的，并与他所面临的种种限制作斗争，但这并不能令人相信这些“承诺”有多现实或他实际取得了什么成就。特朗普当局的言论充斥着简单口号和陈词滥调，并以令人怀疑的方式在许多事情上居功自傲，夸夸其谈，却鲜有行动。