美伊冲突持续引发关注，伊朗有胜算吗？

当地时间1月3日凌晨，美国三枚火箭弹精确击中伊朗将军苏莱曼尼致其死亡。伊朗称将对美方进行“强硬复仇”。目前美国华盛顿、纽约已处于戒备状态。美伊两国军力对比如何？美国每年军费是伊朗的42倍，武器装备约是伊朗的26倍。然而，伊朗仍有多种手段可对美国构成威胁。“兵家必争之地”霍尔木兹海峡，也成为舆论关注热点。

• 双方军事武装分析

1. 无人机战术：在海上空中可以无规则发动攻击，防不胜防；

2. 雷群战术：双方水下的鱼雷战术都可能造成出其不意结果；

3. 弹群战术：伊朗拥有1600多枚导弹，射程在500-2500公里之间的导弹中，既有弹道导弹又有巡航导弹，这些武器拦截起来难度极高；

4. 人群战术：是伊朗军事力量最重要的部分，广泛使用“合作伙伴、代理人和非常规战争”
   

战略咽喉——霍尔木兹海峡成为舆论关注热点，若伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，美国等多国海上通道将被切断。伊朗曾多次在此举行大规模军事演习，展示其封锁海峡的能力。

宁夏大学中国阿拉伯研究院院长李绍先告诉CGTN记者，欧洲三国（英法德）刚刚表示将继续维护伊核协议，呼吁伊朗保持克制，并建议其重回谈判桌。李绍先认为，如果欧洲国家能够说服美国放松对伊制裁，换取伊朗同意就弹道导弹问题进行磋商，未必不是一个打破当前美伊对抗僵局的办法。

The year 2020 started with a further escalation of the U.S.-Iran crisis – with a U.S. drone strike killing Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani on January 3, followed by Iranian counter-strike on bases in Iraq housing U.S. forces.

Those incidents have prompted widespread concerns about the mounting tensions in the Middle East area. However, both sides are testing each other's bottom line on the brink of direct military confrontation, said Li Shaoxian, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University.

The U.S. increases military presence in the Middle East

U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has been posturing itself in the Middle East region defensively, with the ability to respond to aggression. Recently, U.S. officials have argued that additional forces flowing in the region, as well as the strike against Soleimani, are intended to "re-establish deterrence."

According to DOD, there are approximately 60-80,000 U.S. troops in the region as of June 19, 2019, including around 13,000 troops in Afghanistan and 5,200 in Iraq. In recent months, the Pentagon has announced several troop and capability deployments of approximately 10,000 additional troops.

美国在中东的军队和军备都部署在哪里：

In response to attacks on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad on December 31, the U.S. announced the deployment of an infantry battalion to Kuwait with 750 soldiers to deploy immediately and an additional 3,000 military personnel thereafter. 

On January 5, DOD declared that a task force of U.S. Special Operations Forces was deployed to the Middle East. On the following day, it was announced that the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit was being directed to the Mediterranean, and six B-52 Stratofortress bombers were reported to be sent to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, to be available for operations in Iran.

In the current confrontation, the U.S. clearly has the upper hand, while Iran is nearly besieged by U.S. military bases and is struggling under the weight of U.S. economic sanctions.

Iran remains a major military player in the region

But those military disadvantages haven't stopped the country from being a major military player in the Middle East. Global Firepower Index, an online military ranking website, ranks Iran 14 in the world in 2019 out of 137 countries.

Iran has an estimated 523,000 active personnel in the army, navy, air force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and another 350,000 reservists.

伊朗军事基地部署及影响范围：

The Iranian military largely relies on three core capabilities: ballistic missiles, naval forces covering the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and unconventional capabilities including the use of partners and proxies abroad, a U.S. Defense Department report stated.

Iran's missile capabilities are a key part of its military prowess. The U.S. report Iran Military Power Report Statement, released in November, describes Iran with the largest missile force in the Middle East, with a substantial inventory of close-range, short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles that can strike targets throughout the region as far as 2,000 kilometers away.

With Soleimani's death, Iran lost the head of its military operations outside its borders, but it has lost none of the vast networks of allies and proxies Soleimani built and maintained throughout the region. Such groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon and elsewhere, Iraqi Shia militant groups, Houthi rebels in Yemen, the Taliban in Afghanistan and militants in Bahrain.

Iran is also strengthening its integrated air defense systems through domestic production as well as foreign acquisition. 

伊朗军事实力一览：

中国中东学会会长杨光告诉CGTN记者，“在目前的美伊关系中，美国显然占据上风。伊朗因美国的经济制裁而国内经济困难，周边被大量美军基地围困并在也门陷入与沙特等国的冲突，欧盟因伊朗中止执行核协议而与伊朗保持距离，因此伊朗现处于非常孤立和被动的境地。但美伊双方并没有以军事手段进行决斗的意愿。美国忌讳在大选之年对外用兵，而此前的暗杀行动完全是争取选票的需要。伊朗在军事上不是美国及其盟国的对手，在爆发军事冲突的情况下难以指望有大国相助，军事行动不可能带来胜利的结果，伊朗目前对暗杀报复相当谨慎。值得注意的是，双方在本轮暗杀和报复过程中，都传达出进行谈判的意愿。因此，下一步双方爆发大规模军事冲突的可能性不大，重新举行谈判的可能性是存在的。”

The U.S. has announced new sanctions against Iran while Iran has suspended its obligations to fulfill the nuclear agreement, entering another round of blocking and countermeasures.

But the U.S. and Iran do not have the will to conduct a duel by military means. The ordered killing is a plausible strategy for winning voters in an election year, said Yang Guang, president of the Chinese Association of Middle East Studies.

According to recent polls, only about 18 percent of Americans would support U.S. President Donald Trump if he went to war.

Iran has shown calibrated discretion in retaliation with its missile strikes not causing any American casualties, Yang told CGTN. He said both parties reserved space for negotiation. A large-scale military conflict between the two is unlikely, and the possibility of resuming talks exists.

Li Shaoxian suggested it might be a way to break the current U.S.-Iran standoff if the European countries can persuade the U.S. to loosen sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran's back to the negotiation table.

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