真相放大镜 | 为何湖北省新冠肺炎确诊病例一天剧增14840例？

2020年2月12日0时-24时，湖北省卫健委通报的最新疫情情况是，全省新增新冠肺炎病例14840例。由于这一数字相比前几日新增病例有很大的增幅，引起国内外媒体广泛关注和评论。

事实上，这14840例新增病例中，有13332例是临床诊断病例，占据了绝大多数。

对此，美国《华尔街日报》、 CNN 均认为，临床诊断病例纳入确诊病例十分必要，能够覆盖许多之前遗漏的病例，并确保更多患者得到及时隔离与治疗。然而，CNN又称，试剂盒检测困难又费时，临床诊断依据不足均给筛查造成困难，本次病例陡增反映出严重的“诊断延迟”。 

新措施实行的目的在哪里？又会对疫情的防控带来什么样的影响呢？CGTN记者结合事实，向观众揭示真相。

A total of 14,840 new cases of the novel coronavirus were confirmed in one day in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, include 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases. As the number soared overnight, so did the concerns and discussions online. 

So what exactly happened? 

First, let's take a look at this new measurement implemented by the Hubei health authority that caused the number to surge overnight — "clinical diagnosis."

Basically, this means confirming an illness based on the doctor's observations, the patient's symptoms and medical history, not just test results.

相较于前一段时间主要靠试剂盒检测核酸来进行确诊的方法，将临床病例诊断纳入确诊管理范畴，有益于临床医生对疾病更及时的判断和采取不同措施。正如北京市朝阳医院副院长童朝晖先生所说，“实际上在临床工作中病人的病史、症状体征、临床化验、CT检测结果，都需要做综合分析判断。”

And in this specific case, my colleague went down to Chaoyang Hospital and talked to the vice director, he told us a clinical diagnosis is based on the following four perspectives:

• The patient is living in or around Hubei Province or Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic.

• Symptoms such as fever, respiratory tract cough and suffocation are observed.

• Clinical signs, physical examination

• CT image

Before the clinical diagnosis method was implemented, the coronavirus could only be confirmed with a positive result on the nucleic acid test and the CT image, meaning that despite showing symptoms, a negative test result meant the patient would not be confirmed as carrying the coronavirus. This would obviously increase the chances of passing the virus to others. 

By allowing clinical diagnosis, doctors have the ability to confirm coronavirus cases based on more than just test results, which will help boost the speed of checkups and avoid the second round of transmissions.

来看一个特殊案例：2月2日，四川成都一名49岁的女性在与一名目前已确诊的冠状病毒患者接触后开始进行居家隔离，但两次核酸检测均呈阴性。出现发烧等症状后，她又进行了两次核酸测试，结果仍然是阴性。最后，在7天后的2月9日她第五次检测时，才呈现阳性结果，并被确诊。

Take a look at this specific case.

A 49-year old woman in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, which next to Hubei, began home quarantine on February 2 after contact with a confirmed coronavirus patient. Two nucleic acid tests were performed with negative results. Symptoms like fever began, leading her to take two additional nucleic acid tests — still negative. Finally on February 9 — seven days later and on her fifth try — she had a positive result and was confirmed.

Now, let's take a look at the real-time data.

Of the 242 new deaths in Hubei, 135 were clinically diagnosed cases.

Meaning, even without the new definition, the number of deaths in Hubei on Wednesday was 107.

The province's 14,840 new infections include 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases.

Overall, the province now has 48,206 confirmed infections.

By widening the scope of diagnosis, more patients will get the testing and treatment they desperately need, while lowering their risk to the public.

It's always better to be safe than sorry, right?

小心一点总是好的，对吧？

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