冠察天下--疫情究竟如何影响中国经济？

Just how badly will the coronavirus hit the Chinese economy and the world economy? There are real worries out there. 

新冠病毒对中国乃至世界经济的打击到底有多严重？人们对此相当担忧。

Jill Schlesinger, CBS This Morning Business Analyst said "The Chinese growth will drop from about a six percent annualized pace to five percent." Time also reported that "COVID-19 sparked fears of a global economic slowdown." Eric Robersten, head of Global Marco strategy at Standard Chartered stressed: "The hit to tourism, industry, and the supply chain, etc is going to be with us for several quarters."

“CBS今早”节目商业分析师吉尔·施莱辛格指出:“中国经济增速将从每年6%下降至5%.”《时代周刊》也在报道中指出，新冠肺炎引发全球经济放缓的恐慌。 渣打银行全球宏观策略首席分析师埃里克·罗伯逊强调新冠肺炎打击旅游业，制造业,供应链等方面，这种影响也会持续一段时间。

In addition, many headlines cited two surveys. The first is by Peking and Tsinghua Universities on February 5, that says 85 percent of small- to medium- sized Chinese companies polled (995 in total) said they could last no more than three months.

不仅如此，很多头条新闻还引用了两项调查。一项是清华大学和北京大学在2月5日进行的调查。结果显示，在接受调查的995家的中国中小型企业中，有85%表示他们的现金流最多能维持3个月。

The other is conducted by American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai between February 11-14, where nearly half (48%) of foreign companies in China (109 companies) said their operations were impacted.

另一项是上海美国商会在2月11到14号期间所做的调查。参与调查的109家在华外资企业中，有近一半（48%）表示他们的日常运营受到了影响。

These are stressful times.

这是让人倍感压力的时期。

BUT as one would note, many of these surveys and forecasts were made in early- to mid- February when there was no end in sight to the outbreak. Since then, new cases have declined and work has started to resume. It has become a fluid situation that changes by the day, if not by the hour.

That’s why we need to pay attention not just to the HEADLINES, but also the TRENDLINES.

但不难发现，这些调查和预测有很多是二月上中旬做出的。当时，疫情的结束还看似遥遥无期。在那之后，新增病例的数目开始下降，各地也逐步复工。情况即便谈不上瞬息万变，至少每天都有新的变化。因此，我们不仅要关注新闻标题，也要关注疫情趋势。

In an exclusive interview with our program, China’s national grid says Guangdong saw a 62 percent increase in industrial electricity usage in a seven-day period since February 10 (Feb.10-16).

本节目通过对国家电网系统的独家采访了解到，广东省自2月10日起的七天时间里，工业用电量增加了62%。

In Jiangsu, commercial electricity usage went up 35 percent. (Feb.10-17). In Guangdong, over 60 percent of companies had reopened as of February 17th. And we are talking about China’s largest and second largest economies where many of its manufacturing and services are based.

江苏省的商业用电量增加了35% （2月10日至17日）。截止2月17日，广东省全省企业总体复工比例超6成。广东和江苏是中国经济体量中排名前两名的省份，很多制造业和服务业在那里。

Even Apple said in its quarterly guidance that the disruption to their factories in China is expected to be "temporary."

就连苹果公司也在其季度业绩展望中指出，疫情对其在华工厂的影响预计是“暂时”的。

In fact, since mid-February, those living in Beijing and other major cities saw businesses around them slowly reopened and familiar sights, such as traffic jams, returned.

事实上，自二月中旬以来，北京和其他主要城市的人们已经发现，周围的企业开始慢慢复工，堵车等昔日熟悉的景象又重新出现了。

Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing-director stated:"We are confident in the resilience of China's economy."

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·乔治耶娃表示: “我们对中国经济的恢复有信心。”

In the short-run though, challenges remain. Many companies are still short-staffed due to self-isolation of their employees and for others, cash flow is a real problem.

但短期内，挑战依然存在。不少企业仍然由于员工自我隔离而人手不足，还有一些企业面临着现金流方面的难题。

To cope with that, new policies have been announced to exempt pension co-pays for private firms. 173 billion U.S. dollars have been injected into the financial system. And pledges were made to lower borrowing costs.

Implementation is key here. To transition from epidemic control mode to going-back-to-work mode is a difficult shift. And path dependence, bureaucracy and red tape can get in the way.

为应对这些问题，政府出台了新政策减免私营企业的社保缴费，向金融系统注资1730亿美元并承诺降低贷款利率。关键要把这些政策落到实处。从防疫模式转换为复工模式并非易事。路径依赖、官僚主义和形式主义可能成为障碍。

This picture, circulating on social media, shows a company in one Chinese city needing at least nine stamps from authorities to resume production. Fortunately, the next day, public pressure kicked in and those procedures were simplified.

这张在社交媒体上流传的照片显示，中国某城市的一家公司需要盖至少九个公章才能恢复生产。幸运的是，迫于舆论压力，相关手续次日得到了简化。

Finally, the financial markets seem to think the economic impact of COVID-19 will be short-term. Since mid-February, 730 million dollars have flown back to emerging markets ETFs, after two straight weeks of outflows on fears of the virus.

最后，金融市场似乎认为新冠疫情的经济影响是短期的。自二月中旬开始，7.3亿美元的资金重新流回新兴市场基金。此前出于对病毒的恐慌，资金曾连续两周外流。

China's stock market plummeted in the early days of the outbreak but many investors bought the dip and the main indexes bounced back.

疫情初期，中国股票市场大幅下跌。但由于不少投资者纷纷抄底，主要股指已经反弹。

There was also a similar V-shaped recovery story with the U.S. stock market. At least for now.

同时，美国股市也呈现V形复苏。至少目前看是这样。

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