英美研究员推翻“中国谎报疫情数据”阴谋论：中国数据没有造假，而且很有用
自从新冠肺炎席卷全球，关于新冠病毒的各种阴谋论不绝于耳。西方对中国的污蔑和栽赃更是突破人性的底线。
继“武汉病毒所泄露新冠病毒”、“新冠病毒来源于武汉”等谣言被科学证伪后，“中国刻意隐瞒和造假疫情相关信息”的阴谋论也被科学研究击破。
4月27日，牛津大学商学院学者Ken Okamura与美国达拉斯联邦储备银行研究员Chritoffer Koch共同撰写了一篇名为“本福特定律和新冠疫情数据报告” 的论文，揭示了三个有关疫情数据的重要结论：
第一，用本福特定律对数据进行分析验证后，没有发现中国数据造假；
第二，可以使用中国的疫情数据校准新增病例数和死亡病例数之间的权衡模型；
第三，中国“后隔离”数据可以指导其他国家制定政策；
As the coronavirus has swept across the globe, different kinds of conspiracies about the virus have come about. After rumors that the “coronavirus leaked from the Wuhan virology institute” and “coronavirus originated in Wuhan” were proved to be false by scientific studies, the groundless accusation that “China concealed the extent of coronavirus outbreak” was smashed by a recent study.
When the official data from China is checked, there seems to be "no evidence of manipulation," says a pre-released research paper by experts from Oxford University, as well as a paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released on Monday.
The paper came to three conclusions:
“We find no evidence of manipulation of Chinese COVID-19 data using Benford’s Law；
Models on the trade-off between growth and deaths can be calibrated with Chinese data；
Future Chinese data post-quarantine should guide policy in other countries.”
Confirmed cases in Chinese provinces, U.S. states and Italian regions /Screenshot from SSRN
据悉，本福特定律可用于检查各种数据是否有造假。文章作者将中国疫情数据与美国、意大利的数据进行了比较。事实证明，三组数据都符合本福特定律。因此，作者在论文中总结说，“我们拒绝中国数据造假的假设。”
该论文还指出，“对中国数据的怀疑可能已经导致了（西方）应对疫情时的决策失当，也让公众难以接受某些政策，并给社会造成了损害。”
文章称，中国2月份的疫情数据已经显示出中国疫情防控措施的有效性，然而欧洲因对中国持怀疑态度而未能及时并彻底地实施“封城”等措施。
该论文目前刊于SSRN网站上，正在进行同行评审。
Koch and Okamura collected China's data from Johns Hopkins University's Corona Virus Research Center, which is freely available online, and compared it with the numbers for the U.S. and Italy. It turned out that these three sets of data matched with the expectation of Benford's Law. "Thus we reject the hypothesis that the Chinese data has been manipulated," concluded the paper.
The paper also pointed out that “Skepticism about the Chinese data may result – and may already have resulted – in poor policy choices or result in the public not accepting policy decisions to the detriment of society.” It stated that lack of confidence in the Chinese data may have led to “a slower response in Europe to the emergent pandemic” since “Chinese data from February had already shown the effectiveness of the quarantine measures in slowing the progress of the disease”.
This paper is currently under review by the Social Science Research Network (SSRN).
以下是此前来自西方的一系列无端指控：
4月1日美国彭博社刊文称，据三名美国官员透露，美国情报机构在给白宫的一份机密文件中表示，“中国掩盖了新冠病毒的爆发范围，且没有如实报告新冠疫情的确诊病例数与死亡病例数。”
至于这三名官员是谁，该文章表示，“他们不想曝光身份，因为那份报告是机密文件。”
同日，美国总统特朗普在疫情简报会上说，“中国的数据看起来有点少，我这么说都是委婉的。” 暗示中国政府瞒报疫情数据。
4月16日，据路透社报道，美国国务院发言人摩根·奥尔塔格斯在一份声明中表示，美国国务卿蓬佩奥要求中国最高外交官必须充分透明地共享疫情信息。
4月22日，蓬佩奥在记者会上再次抹黑中国，称中国“隐瞒疫情”，并指责世卫组织。
Malicious accusations saying “China concealed the extent of coronavirus outbreak” never cease.
On April 1, an article on Bloomberg said that U.S. Intelligence delivered a classified report to the White House, claiming that “China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease”.
On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump doubted the transparency of the Chinese government’s handling of the pandemic by saying “Their numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that”.
On April 16, Reuters reported that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “stressed to China’s top diplomat the need for full transparency and information sharing to fight against the coronavirus outbreak”.
Besides, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron respectively expressed their doubts about the Chinese government’s transparency in dealing with the pandemic. Macron even said that "There are clearly things that have happened that we don't know about".
西方”甩锅”中国的言论还未停止。4月28日，蓬佩奥再次抹黑和污蔑中国。他在推文中暗示是中国没有分享足够信息才导致美国团队无法好好开展抗疫工作——赤裸裸的甩锅。
对此，中国外交部发言人华春莹硬核回应：
“中国共产党在应对新冠疫情时公开、透明、负责任。一月底有两名美国专家随中国-世卫组织联合考察团队来到了中国。为什么不让美国专家确认一下新冠病毒是何时在美国开始传播的呢？美国人民需要答案，世界也有权利知道答案。”
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attacked China again on April 28, saying “The CPC needs to be transparent” in a tweet. In this end, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying fought back on Twitter, and raised doubt upon the transparency of the U.S. government by saying “Why not ask US experts to locate when the virus first started in the US?”
新冠病毒是人类共同的敌人，各国应合作共同应对，而不是推卸责任和玩弄政治。
正如世卫组织总干事谭德塞所说，“所有政党的焦点应该是挽救民众的生命，” 而不是把病毒政治化。
The coronavirus is a common enemy of humankind. Unity and joint efforts are required to defeat this invisible rival. It is not the time for blame games or playing politics.
As Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of the WHO said, the focus of all political parties should be saving people’s lives, instead of politicizing the virus.
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