For someone who's followed U.S.-China relations for the past decade, I must confess, I am more perplexed now than I've been most of the times about where this relationship is going.
过去十年间，我一直关注着中美关系。但我必须承认，对于中美关系的走向，我现在比以往大多数时候都更加困惑。Will the two countries be compelled to cooperate coming out of a global pandemic or are they locked in for more confrontation going through an election year? 中美在这场全球大流行病过后会走向合作吗? 还是说在今年这个大选年里，两国注定会展开更多对抗？We will talk to a top expert about this, but first, here are some facts.我们稍后会和一位顶尖专家共同探讨这个问题。但首先，先来看一些基本事实。If we go beyond the headlines and political soundbites, on the economic side of the relations, we still see some resilience.如果抛开那些新闻报道和政治言论，我们就会发现，两国关系在经济方面仍然存在韧性。Amid Trump's China trade war and Beijing's retaliations, in 2018, bilateral trade actually reached an all-time high – 634 billion U.S. dollars is one of the highest bilateral trade numbers ever recorded. Of course, it took time for the effects of tariffs to kick in and for the following year, trade volume went down but it was still not far from the recent peak.2018年，虽然特朗普发动了对华贸易战并且中国政府实施了反制措施，双边贸易实际上达到了历史高点，以6340亿美元的贸易额创下纪录。当然，关税的影响需要一段时间才会显现。两国贸易额在次年有所下降，但幅度不大。In fact, in 2019, Americans bought more goods from China than from any other country, by far. 实际上，2019年，美国从中国购买的商品远远超过从其他国家购买的商品。Meanwhile, trade in services continued to grow as well, though at a slower pace.It is a mixed picture in two-way investment.According to Rhodium Group, in 2019, Chinese direct investment in the U.S. dropped to 5 billion U.S. dollars, the lowest level in a decade, due to Beijing's outbound policies and U.S. regulatory scrutiny. However, U.S. direct investment in China went up to 14 billion U.S. dollars as U.S. firms continued to bet on the Chinese consumer market and saw opportunities from eased restrictions on foreign ownership in sectors such as automotive and finance. 荣鼎咨询公司的数据显示，2019年，中国对美直接投资降至50亿美元，为十年来最低，原因是中国政府的对外投资政策调整和美国的监管审查。但是，美国对中国的直接投资增长至140亿美元。因为美国企业继续看好中国的消费市场，而且中国放宽了汽车和金融等行业的外资所有权限制，这让他们看到了机会。Then there is this much talked-about relocation of supply chains.Amid the pandemic, U.S. officials repeatedly asked U.S. companies to move out of China on national security concerns. But how many U.S. companies actually wanted to do that?在新冠肺炎疫情期间，美国官员一直以国家安全为由反复要求美国企业撤出中国。但到底有多少美国企业愿意这样做呢？Greg Gilligan, the chairman of AmCham China, told CGTN in an interview, that less than 1 percent of those surveyed have indicated they would leave China. "Overwhelmingly, people still value, and plan to continue with their sourcing and supply chain operations in China," said Gilligan.中国美国商会主席葛国瑞在采访中指出，只有不足1%的企业说会离开中国。绝大多数人仍然看重并希望维持他们在中国的采购和供应链。Many fear that this economic resilience or what remains of it could be eroded, if politics continues to get in the way. 很多人担忧，如果政治障碍持续存在，这种经济关系的韧性或者说恢复的可能性会遭到侵蚀……There is this ongoing politicization and blame-game surrounding COVID-19. 将新冠肺炎疫情政治化的做法和围绕疫情的甩锅游戏一直在继续……For the first time in decades, expulsion of journalists from each other's countries.And Beijing considers some of Washington's moves provocative to its national security interests. From the Taipei Act that helps Taiwan keep its diplomatic relations and the Taiwan Travel Act that allowed high-level U.S. officials to visit Taiwan, and vice versa, to legislation on Hong Kong and Xinjiang.比如帮助台湾维持其外交关系的《台北法案》以及允许美国及台湾高层官员互访的《台湾旅行法》还有针对香港和新疆的法案。
In addition, since 2018, U.S. naval vessels have sailed through the Taiwan Straits at the frequency of once a month. During the Obama era, such exercises were done once a year.此外，从2018年开始，美国的海军舰艇一直以每月一次的频率穿越台湾海峡。在奥巴马执政期间，此类活动的频率是每年一次。At the end of the day, it's also about how people on both sides want this relationship to go. Or it should be. 说到底，两国人民的意愿也决定着中美关系如何发展。或者说，本该如此。A recent Pew Survey shows a record 66 percent of Americans have negative views of China, the highest rate since the survey began in 2005. But if you break it down by age groups, positive impressions on China are more common among younger Americans. 皮尤研究中心近期的一份民调显示，66%的美国人对中国抱有消极态度，达到2005年该项调研开始以来的最高比例。但从各个年龄层的情况来看，较为年轻的美国人对中国持积极观点的比例更高。Likewise, there are anti-U.S. sentiments among some Chinese. But in 2018 through 2019, a record number of Chinese students went to study in the U.S., despite stricter visa restrictions for some.同样，中国民众中也出现了反美情绪。但2018和2019两年中，赴美留学的中国学生人数达到了历史最高，虽然美国收紧了对部分人的签证限制。Chinese students remain the largest source of foreign students in U.S. higher learning institutions.Now back to the big question. Given these different and sometimes opposing dynamics, where are U.S.-China relations headed? Dr. Cheng Li, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, shared his views.现在回到最重要的问题上来。从这些不同的，有时甚至是相反的形势变化来看，中美关系的走向会是怎样的? 美国布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心主任李成博士分享了他的看法。Wang Guan: You followed U.S.-China relations for decades. How would you characterize the current state of this relationship?您数十年来一直关注中美关系。您认为两国关系现状的特点是什么？Cheng Li: I would call it a vicious cycle of three rings or three areas. Now these three rings or areas have mutually reinforced the tensions or the tense problems of each of them. 中美关系正在经历一个三角恶性循环。目前这三个圈层或者领域相互作用，加剧了各自领域所存在的紧张局势或严重问题。Now, let me very quickly mention these three rings or three areas, which I call, all starting with the word D. 现在，我先简单讲一下我所说的这三个圈层或者领域，每一个的英文都以字母D开头。The first is devastating coronavirus situation in the United States. Number two is dire partisan infighting in U.S. presidential election. And number three, it's a dangerous deterioration of U.S.-China relations.第一个是美国异常严峻(devastating)的疫情形势；第二个是美国总统竞选中严重（dire）的两党对立；第三个是非常危险的（dangerous）中美关系恶化。So we are in a situation really unprecedented since China-U.S. established the diplomatic relationship 40 years ago. 我们目前面对的状况是中美两国建交后的40多年里前所未有的。Wang Guan: I want to get your predictions on where U.S. -China relations are headed, both in the short term and in the long term.我想问一下您预计中美关系的短期和长期走势会是什么样的？Cheng Li: Short term, I think that you probably should not expect too many changes. This kind of election season will reinforce this kind of tension or criticism. 短期之内，我认为不会有太多变化。目前美国竞选正在如火如荼进行当中，这会加剧对华的紧张局势和批评。A public opinion poll in the United States also showed a lot of criticism of China and this is also probably the lowest in recent decades. Also, the negative impact of coronavirus to U.S. economy was not easily changed. 美国的一份民意调查也显示美国人对中国有很多批评，对华好感可能降到了近十年来的最低点。同时，疫情对美国经济造成的负面影响也很难消除。And besides, even if Donald Trump cannot get re-elected, the tensions on the technology competition, this kind of geopolitical landscape change and also the concern about China's very aggressive foreign policy from U.S. perspective will continue.除此以外，即使是特朗普无法再次当选，双方在技术竞争上的对峙，这种地缘政治形势上的变化，以及美国对在美方看来的中国“激进”外交政策的担忧等还是会继续。And then even if the Democratic party wins the election, the Republican party will go after it in terms of its policy to China. So it's not so easy to change the dynamic. So that's the near-term situation.即使民主党赢得了选举，共和党也会在对华政策上紧追不放。这种情况不会轻易改变。这就是短期的情况。Now, for the long term, I will say probably it will be a little bit different.I think people's mindset may change. Because regardless of how you define the coronavirus, this is certainly is a historic moment, to certain extent it is a humanitarian crisis in our lifetime. So people's view may change.我认为人们的想法可能会发生变化。因为无论你如何定义新冠病毒，现在显然是一个历史性的时刻。在某种程度上，这是百年不遇的人道主义危机。所以，人们的看法可能会发生变化。The real enemy is neither China nor the United States from the other side, but really the common enemy is the virus.因此，真正的敌人既不是中国也不是美国，我们共同的敌人是病毒。So international public good whether be climate change, or to deal with the common challenge of international refugees, also the drug traffic and cyber security, energy security and nuclear non-proliferation and most importantly, cooperation on public health, such as right now, I think all these things will be a positive force pushing for cooperation. So in that regard for medium term or long term, I'm actually optimistic.因此，从推进全球公共福祉的角度看，比如解决气候变化问题、国际难民危机、毒品贩卖和网络安全问题，还有推进能源安全、核不扩散和最重要的、也是目前最急需的公共卫生合作等，这些都是促进合作的积极力量。所以，从中长期来看，我实际上是乐观的。Wang Guan: How do you assess the current U.S. China security relations? What are the biggest risk factors?您如何评价目前的中美安全关系？最大的风险因素是什么？Cheng Li: The biggest risk factor certainly is Taiwan. I think that because the recent resolution in the U.S. Congress, Taiwan Act 2019, is a close move to acknowledge Taiwan as a "nation state." So, certainly this challenges China's bottom line. But from the U.S. side, many people also are critical about what happened in terms of Chinese exercises in South China Sea, and maybe some exercises in East China Sea and the cyber security issues and etc. These are all very contentious issues. Now I don't want to give the sensationalism. The war scenario is maybe only 5 to 10 percent.最大的风险因素当然是台湾。我认为，因为最近美国国会的决议，也就是推出 《2019台湾法案》，接近于承认台湾“民族国家”地位。因此，这当然会触及中国的底线。但从美国的角度看，很多人也对中国在南海的军事行动，可能还有在东海的部分军事行动，以及网络安全等问题有很大意见。这些都是非常有争议的问题。现在我不想做什么耸人听闻的判断。战争的可能性可能仅有5-10%。And in that open letter to leaders on both sides, Dr. Cheng Li and 70 scholars urged caution for deploying political capital to fight COVID-19. The letter said, "relationships can take years to nurture and only moments to destroy."在给中美领导人的公开信中，李成博士和另外70位学者敦促两国在抗疫过程中谨慎使用政治资源。信中说道，“培育两国关系需要数年的努力，而毁掉这种关系瞬间便可做到。”