席卷全球的新冠肺炎疫情不仅对人们的生命健康安全造成了威胁，也给各国经济发展带来严峻挑战。随着一些国家疫情形势逐渐好转，如何在继续做好防控的同时有序推进复工复产，缓解经济衰退压力，是迫在眉睫的关键问题。
6月5日，中央广播电视总台中国国际电视台（CGTN）的“全球疫情会诊室”举办了一场特别节目，邀请来自中国和意大利的医学专家、经济学家和产业领袖就如何重启经济的一系列相关问题展开线上交流。本期节目也在意大利Class CNBC电视台及旗下互联网平台同步播出。随着国内疫情得到控制，意大利从6月3日起解除了境内外旅行限制，并谨慎尝试重启经济。而中国从4月底开始，一直在继续严防散发疫情的同时稳步推进复工复产，全国工业企业复工率达到98%以上，零售各业态限额以上企业复工率超过95％。
来自中国和意大利的专家在节目中就如何重启经济展开交流
意大利驻华大使方澜意（Luca Ferrari）也参加了这场交流。他说，目前中意两国都面临着疫情之后的经济增长压力，而他在中国看到的是经济逐渐恢复。“正如我的一个好朋友托马斯•弗里德曼在最近的一次网络研讨会上所说，疫情过后，能够胜出的并不一定是最强大的国家，而是适应得最好的国家，我看到了中国经济强大的适应性，”他说。
他认为，在刚刚结束的两会上，中国政府出台了非常强有力的措施，尤其是在促进经济体系内的资金流通方面。相关的货币流动性政策，不仅惠及中国企业，也惠及包括意大利企业在内的外企。根据国际金融机构的预测，中国经济在年底之前就会恢复增长，这将使中国乃至整个亚洲市场成为今年下半年第一个摆脱疫情影响、恢复正常的地区，也成为最值得关注的市场，对于意大利以及其他出口驱动型的欧洲国家来说，将有很多机会。他还表示，在这场疫情中最受打击的是全球化，而在过去30年里，很多国家都受益于全球化。要摆脱疫情影响，各国还是应该回到全球化的道路上来。这将是中国和欧洲经济恢复的重要条件，中意两国的经济合作也会更紧密。意大利驻华大使方澜意（Luca Ferrari）在节目中发言
In the latest episode of CGTN's livestream program "COVID-19 Frontline" held on Friday, June 5, CGTN in collaboration with Class CNBC, brought together health experts, economists and industry leaders from China and Italy to discuss the resumption of production and economic recovery as the global economy enters a recession due to the pandemic.Luca Ferrari, Italian ambassador to China, also joined the webinar. "Chinese industrial sector, not only Chinese, but also foreign companies in China, have their production back to at least 98 percent. International financial institutions tell us that by the end of the year, China should be back to growth... I think this is very important for Europe as a whole and for Italy in particular...Export-oriented countries like Italy or other European countries have a lot of stake in the China's growth in the second half of the year," Ferrari said.This week, Italy allowed unrestricted travel between Italy and other Schengen countries. As of the time of writing, Italy has recorded a total of 234,013 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with 33,689 deaths, according to the WHO.由于近期意大利新增感染人数显著下降，一些医生认为病毒变弱了，重启经济的风险减小了，事实是否如此？香港大学公共卫生学院副教授朱华晨是长期研究病毒性新发性传染病的专家。她说，她看到意大利有科学家报告病毒正在变弱。她认为这种趋势是有可能的，因为新冠病毒是一种RNA病毒，更容易发生变异，有可能病毒为了更好地适应人体，致病性减弱。但是这一猜测需要更多的临床数据和相关研究来证明，究竟是病毒致病性减弱，还是现在随着经验积累，治疗手段更对症、医疗资源更充分等因素造成的。米兰大学微生物学教授卡洛•费德里科•佩尔诺（Carlo Federico Perno）认为，达尔文的适者生存原理也适用于病毒。病毒也在学着和人体相适应，变得不容易杀死病人，否则病毒就没有宿主了。但是他指出，通常这种适应性变化需要很长时间，一般为几年到几百年。几周或几个月的时间之内不太可能，因此他认为目前病毒和几个月之前没有太大变化。他认为，要在恢复经济和保护人民健康之间做好平衡，因为经济需求也是人民的基本需求。所以现在意大利要重启经济。同时，他建议人们继续保持社交距离、戴口罩等防控措施。他补充，虽然现在意大利的感染人数不多了，但是病毒的本质特征是如果不继续感染人类，就难以生存下去，所以病毒可能还会随着意大利开放口岸重新回到人群。CGTN主播邹韵与Class CNBC主播安德里亚•卡布里尼（Andrea Cabrini）联袂主持本期中国-意大利专家交流节目
Has the novel coronavirus changed?Zhu Huachen, associate professor of Division of Public Health Laboratory Science, Hong Kong University, said it's not surprising if the virus is mutating. It seems the fatality rate is decreasing a little bit recently. Only a few hundreds of asymptomatic cases emerged in the city-wide nucleic acid testing conducted in Wuhan, the former epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China. The massive reduction in the number of patients with symptoms indicates the pathogens in this virus is decreasing. But more scientific evidence is needed.Carlo Federico Perno, Professor of Microbiology, University of Milan, has a different perspective. He said by treating the patients at an earlier stage, the disease was milder, but the virus was not. It might become milder in the future, but today the virus is more or less the same as it was at the beginning of the outbreak.中国政府采取了哪些有效的措施来恢复经济增长？哪些可供意大利借鉴？Class CNBC主播安德里亚•卡布里尼（Andrea Cabrini）在节目中问，中国政府采取了哪些有效的措施来恢复经济增长？又有哪些可供意大利借鉴？对外经济贸易大学经济系教授龚炯回答，中国政府采取了一系列财政政策和货币政策来支持企业，尤其是对中小企业，因为中国的中小企业对经济发展的贡献最大，在疫情中受到的冲击也最大。政府一方面让银行向它们提供足够的信贷；另一方面采取措施帮助它们降低成本，如帮助它们减免一到两个月房租，降低税费等。对于很多出口行业的中小企业，政府还帮助它们把产品先转向国内市场，让它们先存活下来，等待国际市场的复苏。另外，中国政府还大力鼓励发展“新基建”，主要包括5G基站建设、特高压、城际高速铁路和城市轨道交通、新能源汽车充电桩、大数据中心、人工智能、工业互联网这七大领域，培育经济发展新动能。他还介绍，虽然在疫情的冲击下，第一季度中国经济放缓了6.8%，但是从3月下旬就开始逐渐恢复，进入4月份大幅好转。意大利经济学家米歇尔•格拉西（Michele Geraci）认为，中国重启经济的一个优势是，政府有强大的号召力，出台的措施有多种渠道可以落实。中国和欧洲不同，就是中国经济的数字化发展蓬勃，移动互联网非常发达，中国消费者24小时在线。这意味着全球化虽然会在一定行业减弱，但是数字化会愈加繁荣，相关行业比如人工智能等基本不受疫情影响。How to restart the economy?John Gong, professor of the University of International Business and Economics, said small and medium-sized enterprises in China provide 70 to 80 percent of the jobs. In order to help them survive during the pandemic, enough loans need to be provided, rent needs to be reduced for one or two months, and taxes should be reduced as well.Michele Geraci, an economist in Italy, said unlike China, there aren't as many state-owned enterprises in Italy. Besides, the structure of China's economy is unique, 45 percent of China's GDP comes from investment. While in Italy, the number is only 15 to 18 percent. 虽然疫情对全球化趋势带来了打击，但是专家们认为由中国提倡的“一带一路”倡议仍然具有强大的生命力。意大利是G7国家中第一个加入“一带一路”倡议的，米歇尔•格拉西教授在其中发挥了很大的作用。他认为加入该倡议是他们帮助企业做的最好的事情之一，大部分企业对这一倡议的反馈都很积极。他说，他积极推动意大利加入该倡议，是因为他相信和认可它。他看到过去20年基础设施建设和城镇化对中国发展的推动力，目前这个模式在亚洲和非洲也不断发展，在基础设施之上又可以发展制造业，推动当地经济发展。他认为现在应该进一步推进“一带一路”倡议，尤其是在第三世界国家，因为随着中国企业在全球价值链上不断往上游移动，有很多国家迫切想要从中国接手一些制造业。而意大利企业在能源、基础设施建设方面实力很强，也将受益于“一带一路”建设。龚炯教授说，因为疫情，“一带一路”项目确实面临一些困难，因为很多发展中国家都面临经济增长放缓、甚至负增长的局面。目前有2000多项“一带一路”项目贷款。最近有一些国家的政客提出想让中国减免贷款，但是这些项目不是慈善项目，而是商业项目，也在为这些国家创造更多就业。他说，往前看，“一带一路”的整体战略方向仍然是好的，将加强相关国家之间的联系，促进基础设施、贸易以及人与人之间的交流。从中国的角度，今后应该更关注违约风险小、回报更高的国家和行业领域。The impact of the pandemic on the Belt and Road InitiativeItaly was the first among the G7 countries to sign on to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to Michele Geraci, the infrastructure construction in Africa and the Middle East will not be affected by the epidemic, because most people work outdoors in a vast area. And Italian companies can benefit from BRI, which should be given a stronger push.Gong said this year would be very difficult as most parts of the world will see a negative economic growth, and he doesn't think China is going to make a strategic change. The overall direction of the BRI is still very sound. There are many loans associated with the initiative. Some politicians talk about loan relief, however, these are not charitable projects but commercial projects, which can lift the overall infrastructure level and create more manufacturing jobs in these countries, according to Gong.在时长近两个半小时的交流中，两国专家还探讨了疫情之后的投资策略，商业模式可能产生的变化，疫情对餐饮业、旅游业、零售业、汽车业、5G等具体行业造成的影响和恢复措施，全球供应链的变化等问题。Perspectives on business switching from offline to onlineCarlo Maria Ferro, president of Italian Trade Agency, said digitization is very important. He said Italy is at the top of the high-end manufacturing industry, but it also needs more digitization. With digital tools, everything can go back to normal. Digital management business has been reestablished and training programs for digital managers have been launched.截至6月5日，CGTN共进行全球疫情会诊室直播63场，发布相关报道1027条，获得全球阅读量2.45亿，总互动126万次，视频观看量7402万。In later episodes of "COVID-19 Frontline," more frontline doctors and experts from Wuhan will join in to share their experience with their colleagues from other parts of the world. If you have any questions regarding COVID-19, you can share them with us using #MyOpinionOnCOVID19 on Facebook.
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