前驻美记者王冠：四大迹象表明2020大选民调或比四年前靠谱

Days to go until the U.S. presidential election and the question many are asking is, will Joe Biden suffer the fate of Hillary Clinton and polls got it all wrong?
距离美国大选日只剩最后几天时间了，很多人都在问这样一个问题：拜登会不会重蹈希拉里·克林顿的覆辙，民调领先而最终输掉选举？

Here are four indications that 2020 is UNLIKELY to be a repeat of 2016.

以下四个迹象显示，2020年大选不太可能是2016年的翻版。

Indication #1: Many 2020 polls have weighted their samples. 

第一个迹象：许多2020年民调都调整了样本权重

Why is it important? Well, in 2016, national polls were actually accurate in showing Clinton having a three point lead over Trump. She won the popular vote by two points. It was the Electoral College vote that cost her the election and that happened because most state polls, especially those in the mid-western swing states, surveyed too many college graduates and too few white people without a college degree. The former were more likely to support Clinton and the latter Trump.

为什么民调的样本权重很重要？2016年，全国民调显示希拉里领先特朗普三个点。这其实是准确的，她最终赢得的普选票超出特朗普两个点。使她输掉大选的是选举人票。而这是因为，大多数州民调，特别是中西部摇摆州民调的调查取样对象中，受过大学教育的人过多，没受过大学教育的白人选民太少。前者更倾向支持希拉里，后者更倾向特朗普。

For example, one survey in Michigan sampled 70% of college graduates because they were more likely to respond to polls but then on Election Day, that group only made up 35% of the final electorate. 

比如，在一个密歇根州民调的样本中，受过大学教育的选民占比70%，这也可以理解，因为他们更愿意参与民调。但问题是在投票日，该群体在所有投票选民中的实际占比只有35%。

Since 2016, many pollsters such as IPSOS and Pew learned this lesson and weighted down college graduates and weighted up those without a college degree.

2016年以后，很多民调机构，例如益普索集团和皮尤研究中心，都吸取了教训，下调了拥有大学学历选民的权重，提高了没有大学学历选民的权重。

NBC News and Wall Street Journal polls are even weighted by the share of respondents from urban, suburban and rural areas, to make sure that rural America, which tends to vote Republican, are fully represented this time around.

华尔街日报/美国全国广播公司联合民调甚至按照参与者所在地区，即城市、郊区和乡村，对样本权重进行了调整，以保证倾向于支持共和党的乡村选民的民意得到充分表达。

And let's not forget, there was an element of luck too. Trump won the three crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a combined total of just 77,000 votes. 77,000! That was 0.06% of the total vote cast. If not for that, Clinton could have been president.

话虽如此，但别忘了运气也是一个因素。上次大选中，特朗普在密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和威斯康辛三个关键摇摆州仅以77000票的微弱优势拿下。77000票！这在1.37亿的总投票数中只占0.06%。否则，总统可能就是希拉里了。

Indication #2: Early voting suggests a record turnout.

第二个迹象：提前投票的美国选民人数或创历史新高

Americans showed unprecedented enthusiasm for 2020 election. As of October 28, 73 million Americans have cast their ballot. Compare that to 50 million early voters four years ago. A week to go until the election, early votes already surpassed half of the total vote in 2016. 

美国人对2020年大选展现出了前所未有的积极性。截至10月28日，已经有7300万选民完成投票。不比不知道，4年前这个数字只有5000万。在距离大选日还剩一周之时，提前投票数已经超过了2016年总投票数的一半。

Data from the U.S. Elections Project predicts a record 150 million ballots. That would be a voter turnout of 65%, the highest rate since 1908.

"美国选举计划"的数据显示，今年大选的总投票人数预计达到破纪录的1.5亿。这意味着选民投票率将达到65%，创1908年以来的纪录。

And who are these early voters supporting? Well, so far Democrats are much more eager about early voting. In the five battleground states, three times more Democrats have voted than Republicans did, though the gap narrowed somewhat as Election Day approaches. 

那么这些提前投票的选民都支持哪一方呢？到目前为止，民主党选民对提前投票的态度要积极得多。在五个摇摆州中，已经投票的民主党选民是共和党选民的三倍，但随着大选日临近，这一差距有所缩小。

Indication #3:  The rise of young voters in America.

第三个迹象：年轻选民的崛起

In this upcoming election, over a third, or 37%, of the electorate will be millennials and generation Z, according to  Pew Research. 

皮尤研究中心的研究显示，今年大选符合资格的选民中，美国的零零后以及八零后九零后选民占比超过三分之一，达到总选民数的37%。

And an unprecedented number of them turned out in early voting, including in crucial swing states. For example, in Florida, six times more young people voted than four years ago and in North Carolina and Michigan that number is 10 times and 20 times higher. 

这些年轻人中提前投票的人数创下了历史新高，包括在关键的摇摆州。比如，在佛罗里达州，已经提前投票的年轻人是四年前的6倍；在北卡罗来纳州和密歇根州，提前投票人数分别是四年前的10倍和20倍。

Most polls including one done by Harvard University in late October showed that Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 63% to 25% among these young voters. 

在大多数民调包括哈佛大学十月底进行的一项调查显示，拜登在美国年轻选民中的支持率以63%对25%的优势领先特朗普。

Indication #4: There are probably less "shy Trump voters".

第四个迹象：“害羞的川粉”今年很可能更少

If a person hasn't made up his/her mind at the time of polling and goes to poll on Election Day, they would not be "captured" by the polls. There were a large number of them in 2016, which were also known as "shy Trump voters". That's another reason why polls were off in 2016. 

如果一个选民在民调进行时没拿定主意，然后在投票日把票投给某候选人，那这个选民就无法被民调“捕捉”到。2016年存在有大量这样的选民，人们称其为“害羞的川粉”。这也是2016年民调不准确的另一个原因。

The Trump campaign still argues that this year there are still many "hidden" Trump supporters. But this time it could be a bit different. 

特朗普的竞选团队声称，今年仍然有很多这样的“隐形川粉”。但事实或许并非如此。

In 2016, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were among the least popular candidates in the history of U.S. presidential elections. Many voters put off making a decision for as long as possible.  

2016年，希拉里·克林顿和唐纳德·特朗普是美国总统选举历史上最不受欢迎的两位候选人。很多选民迟迟无法做出决定，一拖再拖直到最后一刻。

Biden however is not as disliked as Clinton was. Clinton had a net favorability rating of minus 12.6 percent. This time Biden has a net favorability rating of just minus 1.6 percent. Clinton had been a controversial politician for decades and was loathed by conservatives.

拜登并不像希拉里那样被人厌恶。希拉里当时的好感度为-12.6点。而今年拜登的好感度是-1.6点。长久以来，希拉里一直是一位颇具争议的政客，美国的保守派对其厌恶至极。

By contrast, Biden is a 78-year-old white man with a reputation as a moderate Democrat, making him a less disliked figure.

相反，现年78岁的白人男性拜登被普遍视作温和派民主党人，人们远不像讨厌希拉里那样讨厌他。

Having said all these, we need to acknowledge that independent voters who aren't registered with any political party can be the wild card, swinging the outcome. Also, a "red wave" of in-person voting on November 3 could also overcome what appears to be an early voting advantage for Democrats. 

虽然如此，我们也必须得意识到，无党派的中间派选民有可能成为不确定因素，影响最终大选结果。此外，11月3日投票日当天如果出现共和党希望的“红色浪潮”，那么共和党也可能超越民主党在提前投票中所积累的优势。

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