评论 | 中国更高水平开放与跨国企业机遇

Editor's note: Stephen Roach is a professor at Yale University. This is an excerpt of his speech at the Understanding China Conference 2020, held in Guangzhou, China in November. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

编者按：史蒂芬•罗奇是耶鲁大学教授。这是他在2020年11月“读懂中国”国际会议上讲话的节选。本篇仅代表专家观点，不代表本台观点。

No nation understands the benefits of opening up better than China. That was true under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping and it is true today. 

世界上没有哪个国家比中国更清楚对外开放所带来的益处。邓小平时代如此，今天亦是如此。

But opening up does not occur in a vacuum.  It depends critically on a two-way calculus: China’s willingness to invite foreign participation in its economy, and the world’s reciprocal efforts to share its markets with China.  In the current climate of de-globalization and protectionism, this two-way calculus is far more challenging than it was in the 1990s and early 2000s.

但开放无法在真空环境下发生，它主要依赖于一种双向考量：中国邀请外国参与其经济的意愿, 以及世界让中国参与世界市场的互惠做法。在当前逆全球化和保护主义的氛围下，这一双向考量面临的挑战已远远超过了上世纪九十年代和本世纪初。

I have long been of the view that for the United States, the trade war is far more about politics than economics. America has a chronic saving problem that requires us to borrow surplus saving from abroad in order to grow. With exploding budget deficits, that problem is now going from bad to worse. As we borrow surplus saving from abroad, we run massive trade deficits to attract the foreign capital.  

我一直认为，对美国而言，贸易战更加关乎政治，而非经济。美国长期存在的储蓄问题，不得不从国外借贷剩余储蓄实现增长。如今，伴随着膨胀的预算赤字，该问题进一步恶化。我们借入其他国家的富余储蓄，就需要背负巨大贸易赤字才能吸引外国资本。

These deficits are multilateral in scope – the U.S. had merchandise trade deficits with 102 nations last year.  By going after China, we are making a major economic mistake: There can be no bilateral fix for a multilateral problem. No matter how strenuously our politicians argue in support of such an approach, it will not work.

这些赤字的规模呈多边特征：去年，美国和102个国家存在商品贸易逆差。只针对中国是个巨大的经济错误：多边问题无法通过双边解决。无论美国政客多么坚定地支持，这种方法都无济于事。

The U.S., of course, is now at a pivotal juncture in its political history. That raises critically important questions to many in the world, especially to you in China. Will the U.S. seek to reclaim its role as a leader of globalization? Will a Biden Administration be willing to shift America’s relationship with China from conflict back to engagement? How can a shift in U.S. political leadership break the vicious cycle of ever-escalating tariffs and sanctions?

这对世界上很多国家，特别是中国，提出了非常重要的问题。美国是否会寻求重新回到全球化领袖的地位？拜登政府是否愿意改变与中国的关系，从冲突回归接触？美国政府换届将如何打破关税、制裁不断升级的恶性循环？

Reversing the recent course of events in not like flicking a light switch. Reflecting decades of mounting pressures on middle-class U.S. workers, the pushback against globalization started long before Donald Trump took office in January 2017. And I would be the first to concede that these forces are likely to endure long after the Trump presidency comes to an end. 

逆转当前走势不像按下开关那么简单。从过去几十年美国中产阶层承受的巨大压力

就可看出，逆全球化势力早在2017年1月特朗普上台之前就开始了。并且我认为，特朗普卸任之后，这些势力还会继续存在。

To be sure, a Biden Administration can be expected to be more supportive of alliance-driven multilateralism, re-engaging in frameworks and institutions long dominated by U.S. global leadership including the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, and even the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But will that be enough to reestablish America’s once-unquestioned role of global leadership? 

诚然，拜登政府预计将更加支持由联盟推动的多边主义，重新回归长期由美国主导的全球框架和体制，包括巴黎气候协定、世贸组织、世卫组织、甚至跨太平洋伙伴关系协定。但是，这是否足以重新建立美国曾经毫无争议的全球领导地位？

To the extent that the anti-globalization backlash has coalesced around objections to trade liberalization and allegations of unfair trading practices, returning to a pre-Trump state of affairs is far more problematic. That is particularly the case when it comes to China, where public opinion polling underscores record levels of negative sentiment in most U.S. demographic cohorts: Age, education, and political party. While there is reason to suspect that the framework of engagement might change between the two nations moving away from Twitter-driven bluster and across-the-board tariffs to issue-specific negotiations in areas such as, intellectual property, market access, cyber security, and technology transfer, conflict with a rising China is likely to pose an enduring challenge for a Biden Administration.            

反全球化的声音集中于反对贸易自由化和对贸易实践不公平的指控。其力度之大，要回到特朗普当选前的局面将更加困难。就中国来看情况尤为如此。舆情调查突出显示，不分年龄、教育背景和所属政派，美国民众对中国的负面情绪创下历史新高。有理由相信重返接触或许有助于改变两国关系的现状。从在推特上互相抨击、全面调高关税，回归到在知识产权、市场准入、网络安全和技术转移等领域中，围绕具体问题展开谈判。但与正在崛起的中国之间始终存在冲突，很可能是拜登政府长期面临的挑战。

At the same time, there is likely to be little relief from the macroeconomic imbalances that are giving rise to large U.S. trade deficits. Indeed, there is a good chance that America’s federal budget deficit will be markedly higher under a Biden presidency, further depressing domestic saving and leading to an even deeper current account deficit. That will only put further pressure on the Chinese portion of the U.S. multilateral trade deficit, making political de-escalation of the China conflict all the more difficult as a result.  

同时，宏观经济失衡很可能不会有所改善，这将导致美国产生大量的贸易逆差。在拜登执政之下，美国的联邦财政赤字规模很可能会更大，这将进一步打击国内储蓄，扩大经常账户赤子。中国在美国多边贸易逆差中所占比重只会面临更大的压力，进而使美中冲突的政治缓和愈发艰难。

Consequently, notwithstanding the possibility of a post-Trump political pivot, a shift in U.S. policy toward China will not be easy to execute.  At the same time, I would argue that a change in U.S. political leadership should be seen as an opportunity. With a disciplined framework of engagement that offers mutual benefits to both nations, there is much to gain through a rethinking of the U.S.-China relationship. 

即使后特朗普时代政治重心发生转移，美国对中国的政策转变也无法轻易开展。但我认为美国政府更迭应当被视为机遇。讲求规则的接触框架能够给两国都带来裨益，因此重新思考美中关系极有意义。

Call me an optimist or naïve, the best opportunities often arise during periods of maximum stress.  And that is precisely the case today. In the spirit of mutual engagement, I would urge a Biden Administration to reopen negotiations on a U.S.-China Bilateral Investment Treaty. A BIT offers a meaningful opportunity for rules-based market-opening initiatives that would benefit the opening up and growth potential of both the U.S. and China.  

说我乐观也好、天真也罢，在最大的压力之下往往潜藏着最佳的机遇。今天的局面正是如此。秉承互相接触的精神，我想敦促拜登政府重启美中双边投资协定的谈判。此类协定可以带来有意义的机会，促进基于规则的市场开放举措，扩大美中两国共同的对外开放和增长潜力。

The two nations came close to an agreement on a BIT during the Obama Administration, but then politics got in the way. Shifting political winds in the United States offer an opportunity to resurrect this approach. The U.S. currently has BITs with 42 nations, whereas China has close to 145 such agreements. Both nations clearly recognize the benefits of enforceable rules-based frameworks of market access that BITs provide.  It is high time for the two largest economies in the world to seize this moment.

奥巴马政府时期，两国曾几乎达成双边投资协定，但后来便遇到了政治阻挠。美国政治风向的改变带来了协商复苏的可能性。美国目前与42个国家订立了双边投资协定，中国也已签署近145个此类协定。两国显然都认识双边投资协定能够带来可执行、基于规则的市场准入框架。全球最大的两个经济体应当抓住当前机遇，这一行动刻不容缓。

Both sides would also need to temper the protection of domestic industries from foreign competition. China’s recent commitment to reduce its so-called negative list is encouraging in that regard. This would put the burden on the Biden Administration to reduce America’s recent expansion of its “entity list,” thereby defusing the weaponization of U.S. trade policy aimed at global value chains, in general, and China, in particular.

 双方都必须放松对本国行业免受外国竞争的保护。中国近期减少负面清单的承诺就很让人鼓舞。这将迫使拜登政府减少美国最近扩大的“实体清单”，从而消除美国贸易政策针对全球产业链和中国的武器化趋势。

Most of all, opening up strategies for China or for any other country must be framed as mutual opportunities for collective engagement. No one country can successfully execute an opening up on its own. China gained so much from its first wave of opening up because the world was ready and willing to welcome China into the global trading system. 

最重要的是，开放战略对中国、或是其他任何国家而言，必须成为共同参与的互惠机遇。没有一个国家可以独自成功施行开放战略。中国之所以从第一轮开放中获益良多，正是因为世界做好了准备，愿意欢迎中国加入全球贸易体系。

As I have stressed, today’s climate is less welcoming, less hospitable. A higher level of opening up, as China now calls it, must be acutely sensitive to a much tougher global response. This will work only if distrust can give way to a renewal of mutual trust. While this won’t be easy, shame on us if we squander this opportunity.         

我在前面曾强调，今天的氛围已不似那时友好。中国提出更高水平的开放，务必敏锐地捕捉更难以获取的全球回应。只有相互信任取代猜疑，开放才能发挥实际作用。这殊为不易，但错失良机定会是遗憾。

I am hopeful that we will look back on this period as pivotal in deepening our understanding of China and the world in which China is engaged.

我坚信，当我们在未来回望今天，这段时期是深入读懂中国，读懂中国所参与的世界的关键时期。

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