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特朗普的养老金要没了?

CGTN CGTN 2021-08-01
特朗普又要被弹劾了。


弹劾一个还有8天就要离任的美国总统,对于美国当前政局影响似乎并不明显。

不过特朗普本人或许此时正挠心挠肺:一旦被认定有罪,他的养老金可就泡汤了,且他再也不能竞选美国总统。

美国国会众议院民主党人已于当地时间1月11日正式提交针对总统特朗普的弹劾条款草案,理由是“煽动叛乱”。 

一旦草案通过,特朗普将再度创造历史——成为唯一一位被弹劾两次的美国总统

Democrats formally introduced their impeachment resolution on Monday. It charges U.S. President Donald Trump with "incitement of insurrection." The passage would make Trump, a Republican, the only U.S. president ever to be impeached twice.


1. 接下来的弹劾流程怎么走?

提交草案是众议院民主党人启动弹劾进程的第一步。


下一步的剧情却并不是特朗普马上被弹劾↓↓↓

  • 由于此前民主党人曾动议,要求副总统彭斯援引美国宪法第25条修正案罢免特朗普,却未能获得全数议员同意,因此众议院需要在本周二就此进行讨论与表决。 


    鉴于民主党目前控制了众议院多数席位,这项表决预期将获得通过,彭斯将有一天的时间考虑是否顺应众议院的呼吁,动用25条。


  • 如果彭斯不接受这一提议,众议院将在周三进行弹劾表决。


  • 依照美国宪法,如果众议院以简单多数票赞成提出指控,即意味着总统被弹劾。


    由于弹劾条款目前已获得210多名民主党议员的联合署名,且多名共和党议员也表示在考虑支持弹劾,因此条款草案大概率将顺利通过。


  • 接下来,参议院将就弹劾案进行审理,判定总统特朗普煽动叛乱的罪名是否成立。需要三分之二的参议员同意定罪,总统才会被判定有罪。


As the House convened on Monday, Republicans blocked an effort to immediately consider a resolution asking Pence to invoke the never-used 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove an unfit president.

The House is scheduled to vote on Tuesday evening to formally call on Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment, in which he would declare “president Donald J. Trump incapable of executing the duties of his office and to immediately exercise powers as acting president.”

Assuming Mr. Pence declines, as he has already indicated he would, the House will begin debate on the impeachment resolution Wednesday morning, heading toward an evening vote.

With more than 210 co-signers for the article, lawmakers said they were confident they had the votes to proceed. As many as a dozen Republicans are said to be considering joining Democrats to impeach.

Once the House of Representatives delivers the article to the Senate, the upper house will begin a trial, which the chief justice of the United States will preside. The U.S. Constitution requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate to convict.

这当中存在的不确定性包括:

  • 虽然民主党人极力给彭斯施压,但这位即将离任的副总统似乎并无意愿援引美国宪法第25条修正案,剥夺总统权力。


  • 于候任总统拜登的就职典礼是当务之急,参议院目前没有开会。要想审议弹劾案,所有100名参议员必须同意改变日程,这是极不可能的。


    因此,对于特朗普罪名的审议或将延至拜登任内第一个月


  • 对于总统离任后是否可以被弹劾,法律上没有明文规定,此前也并无先例。众议院的律师们正忙着研究法律和宪法问题。


Pence and his fellow Republicans have shown little interest in invoking the amendment, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats have tried to ramp up the pressure on them to act against Trump. 

When the House would deliver the article to the Senate for a trial is uncertain. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell previously made clear in a memo that even if the House moved in the coming days to impeach Trump, the Senate would not return to session before January 19. That would place the start of the trial on January 20 -- the date of Biden's inauguration.

History gives little guide on the question of whether a president can be impeached once he leaves office, and House lawyers are racing to understand the legal and constitutional issues.


2. 弹劾草案都说了啥?

在草案中,民主党人指控特朗普“煽动叛乱”、“干涉权力和平过渡”等。


草案说,特朗普的行为“严重危及”美国和美国政府机构的安全,给美国人民造成“明显伤害”,如任其继续执政,将“对国家安全、民主和宪法构成威胁”。

The impeachment article charges Trump with “inciting violence against the government of the United States” and encouraging his supporters to obstruct the certification of the election, among other accusations.

“In all this, President Trump gravely endangered the security of the United States and its institutions of government,” the article reads. “He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of government.”

上周三,美国总统特朗普在白宫外集会现场对大批支持者发表演讲,重复“选举舞弊”的言论。


随后,他的支持者冲进美国国会大厦,迫使正式确定他败选的过程暂停。冲击者与警方发生冲突,造成至少四人死亡。


美媒摘录了特朗普当日演讲中的一些煽动性言论——

“Republicans are constantly fighting like a boxer with his hands tied behind his back…We want to be so respectful of everybody, including bad people. And we’re going to have to fight much harder.”
“共和党人就像双手被绑在背后的拳击手…我们想要尊重每一个人,包括坏人。我们不得不更奋力地出击。”

“We fight like hell, and if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”
“我们拼命战斗,如果你不拼命战斗,你的国家就不再是国家了。

“We will never give up. We will never concede. It doesn’t happen. You don’t concede when there’s theft involved. Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore."
“我们决不会放弃,我们决不会屈服。一定不会。有人窃取了选举结果,你不能屈服。我们的国家受够了,我们不会再忍受。

“We are going to try — give our Republicans, the weak ones, because the strong ones don’t need any of our help, we’re try — going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.”
“我们将赋予共和党人——软弱的共和党人荣耀和勇气,来夺回我们的国家,而强大的共和党人不需要我们的帮助。”


3. 如果弹劾成功了,然后呢?

特朗普很可能继续担任总统直到1月20日任期结束。

特朗普的任期所剩无几,众议院此时发起弹劾,虽然不太可能让他提前搬离白宫,但特朗普却不能不忌惮。


如果他作为卸任总统被参议院认定罪名成立,那么他将失去卸任总统的特权,包括安保和养老金等。

当然,这笔钱对于特朗普来说可能不足为道,虽然媒体报道特朗普目前财务状况堪忧,集团业务运转不佳,但他仍可以通过参演电视节目,出售名字使用权等方式捞金。


但除此之外,他还可能被禁止再次担任公职。据美媒报道,特朗普正考虑在2024年再次竞选总统,如果弹劾成功,特朗普他日“卷土重来”的美梦就被彻底打碎了。

Trump risks losing benefits a former president is entitled to, including a lifetime pension and up to $1 million per year for security and travel, if he is removed from office by impeachment.

Trump may also be disqualified from running for office again.


4. 美国弹劾简史

在特朗普之前,美国历史上对总统的弹劾案共有三起。

美国第17任总统安德鲁·约翰逊因纵容奴隶主复辟,遭到共和党激进派的反对,于1868年对约翰逊进行了一系列的总统弹劾运动。


虽然弹劾案最后在参议院因一票之差而未通过,但约翰逊的威望和影响都跌到了谷底,基本变成了“虚位总统”。

1974年,水门事件丑闻曝光后,众议院决定顺应民意,对美国第37任总统理查德·尼克松发起弹劾。尼克松在弹劾条款表决前,宣布辞职。


1998年,第42任总统比尔·克林顿遭众议院弹劾,被指控在与白宫前实习生莱温斯基的关系问题上“作伪证和妨碍司法”,最后被参议院宣告无罪。


众议院曾于2019年12月弹劾特朗普,指控他滥用权力和妨碍国会,以及试图向乌克兰施压,让其抹黑拜登。参议院投票宣布这两项指控不成立。 


In 1868, Andrew Johnson, the 37th US president, was accused of, among other things, dismissing his secretary of war against the will of Congress. Johnson had a narrow escape - the two-thirds majority in the Senate was missed by just one vote.

Richard Nixon, the 37th US president, resigned in 1974 before he could be impeached over the Watergate scandal.

Bill Clinton found himself impeached on the grounds of perjury and obstruction of justice after he lied about the nature of his affair with Monica Lewinsky and then allegedly asked her to lie about it as well.

But when the trial reached the Senate in 1999, the vote for a conviction failed to get close to the two-thirds backing required.

The impeachment of Donald Trump for the first time was initiated on December 18, 2019, when the House of Representatives approved articles of impeachment on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The Senate acquitted Trump of these charges on February 5, 2020.

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