冠察天下 | 20年！美国阿富汗战争教训惨痛

20 years on...Afghanistan turns out to be America's longest war. Knowing that the war is unwinnable, President Joe Biden announced that there will be a total U.S. troops withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021.

持续20年的阿富汗战争成为了美国作战史上最旷日持久的战争。拜登总统明白无法取得这场战争的胜利，于是宣布美军将在2021年9月11日之前从阿富汗全面撤军。

Now comes the question: Was 20 years of U.S. military intervention all worth it? 

现在问题来了：这场长达20年的军事干预是否值得？

Although Afghanistan was the base for al-Qaeda, none of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Afghan nationals. Mohamed Atta, an Egyptian, led the group, and 15 of the hijackers originated from Saudi Arabia. 

虽然阿富汗是“基地”组织的大本营，但9.11事件中的19名劫机人员没有一个是阿富汗国民。埃及人穆罕默德·阿塔是劫机团伙头目，另外15名劫机者来自沙特阿拉伯。 

President George W. Bush decided to bring down the Taliban government in Afghanistan anyway, believing Afghanistan was a safe haven for Al Qaeda and other radical organizations. 

但小布什最终还是决定推翻阿富汗的塔利班政权，他认为阿富汗是“基地”组织和其他激进组织的大本营。

Bush probably had a point then, but he apparently underestimated the complexity of this ancient society politically, economically and in terms of its social and cultural fabrics. 

小布什当时的想法可能有道理，但他显然低估了这个古老的社会在政治、经济和文化领域的复杂性。 

The Taliban government was quickly toppled but 20 years later, the Taliban has made a comeback.

塔利班政权很快被推翻，但20年后，塔利班组织卷土重来。

As of July 10, 2021, it regained control over 204 of Afghanistan's 407 districts and contests another 124 districts, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which closely tracks the conflict. 

据密切跟踪阿富汗国内冲突的保卫民主基金会称，截至2021年7月10日，塔利班重新控制了阿富汗407个地区中的204个，并对另外124个地区展开争夺。

Watch this time lapse video and see how quickly the Taliban advanced in the country since Biden's April announcement of the U.S. withdrawal. 

通过这段延时视频，可以看到自拜登4月宣布美国撤军以来，塔利班在该国攻城略地的速度有多快。 

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. intelligence community believes the Afghan government "could collapse six months after the American military withdrawal" and the government of President Ashraf Ghani could survive for as long as two years once the U.S. withdrawal is completed. 

据《华尔街日报》报道，美国情报界认为，阿富汗政府“可能在美军撤离后六个月内崩溃”，而一旦美国完成撤军，阿什拉夫·加尼的政权也许只能再活两年。 

That is roughly the same time between the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam and the "Fall of Saigon" in April 1975.

这与美国从越南撤军和1975年4月所谓的“西贡沦陷”事件之间的时间间隔大致相同。

After two years of investigation, America’s own Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko says despite some heroic efforts to stabilize the country, the U.S.' mission mostly failed...due to a variety of factors, from unrealistic expectations, the lack of capacity of U.S. government agencies, institutional rivalries and bureaucratic hurdles. 

经过两年的调查，美国的阿富汗重建特别监察长约翰·索普科表示，尽管美军为稳定该国局势作出了英勇贡献，但任务还是失败了......原因有很多，包括不现实的期望、美国政府部门的无能、机构博弈和官僚障碍。

And all this is happening at what cost?

那么这一切的代价到底有多大？

More than 22,000 U.S. forces have been killed or injured. 

美军伤亡人数超2.2万。

But it's the Afghans who paid the heaviest price. Brown University's research put the casualty of Afghan national military and police at 64,000. 

但阿富汗人付出了最为沉重的代价。布朗大学的研究表明，阿富汗军队和警察的伤亡人数达6.4万。 

And according to the United Nations, 111,000 Afghan civilians have been killed or injured.

而根据联合国的数据，阿富汗平民伤亡人数则高达11.1万。

This is outrageous. 

这太过分了！

And the economic costs are staggering too.

连年战争的经济代价也十分惊人。

The Pentagon's 2020 report said the war has cost $815.7 billion. But the Costs of War project put the final figure at $2.2 trillion. 

五角大楼2020年报告指出，这场战争耗资8157亿美元。但“战争成本核算”项目认为最终数字为2.2万亿美元。

There are many reasons for America’s involvement in Afghanistan: a genuine concern about terrorist threat, the strategic location of Afghanistan, and America's interventionist tradition. But another factor—an open secret—is that war is good business. 

美国介入阿富汗内政有许多原因：对恐怖主义威胁切实的担心、阿富汗的战略位置，以及美国的干预主义传统。但还有一个因素，也是一个公开的秘密，即战争是一门好生意。

The Pentagon, the military contractors, the weapons manufacturers, the neoconservative strategists, which are all part of America's military-industrial complex, perhaps know a thing or two about that. 

五角大楼、军事承包商、军火商、新保守主义战略家对此都心知肚明，因为他们都是美国军事工业复合体的组成部分。

The only general to be elected president in the 20th century, President Dwight Eisenhower, in his Janurary 1961 farewell address, first warned America about what he calls the corrupting influence of the "military-industrial complex." He said,

作为20世纪唯一一位将军出身的总统，德怀特·艾森豪威尔在1961年1月的告别演说中首次提醒美国，要提防所谓“军事工业复合体”的腐化侵蚀。

"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.... We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes."

他说：“在政府各部门中，我们必须防止军事工业复合体获得不正当的影响力，不论它这样追求与否。权力错配现象正日益显现，其造成灾难性后果的可能将长期存在...... 决不能让这种军事和工业的结合危及我们的自由和民主进程。”

It looks like much of the warning remains relevant today.

看起来，这个警告在今天仍然适用。

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