对话思想者｜林毅夫：中国未来如何进一步实现高质量经济发展？
China's ability to manage economic ties with the U.S., the largest such ties in the world, while reducing its carbon footprint is no easy feat. Justin Yifu Lin, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, explains that building and innovating at home is the best way to kill two birds with one stone. He says that investment in new green technology will allow China to meet its emission targets while showing the U.S. how good bilateral ties are to their benefit.
疫情下，中国的经济增长态势比大多数国家都要强劲，但也并非完全没有不确定性。美国在拜登的领导下，仍追寻其前任遏制中国经济政策的足迹。中国在展现经济发展强大韧性的同时，还制定了到 2060 年实现碳中和的宏伟目标。
处理好中美经济交流的同时，减少中国的碳足迹并非易事。北京大学新结构经济学研究院院长林毅夫认为，中国要充分发挥自己的发展潜力，不断革新。他表示，对绿色技术的投资将有助于中国实现其排放目标，同时让美国明白良好的双边关系对双方都是有益的。
Justin Yifu Lin: I think the growth in China is on the process of recovery from the hit of COVID-19. And I think that recovery is steady, on the right path, and relatively speaking, China is doing well.
林毅夫：我认为中国经济正在摆脱疫情影响并恢复增长。我认为中国经济正在稳步复苏。相对来说，中国经济表现不错。
Tian Wei: Professor Lin, the U.S. economy is bouncing back and many see China-U.S. relations as a very tricky issue. What is the best scenario? And most importantly, what is the worst scenario?
田薇：林教授，美国经济也正在反弹，很多人认为中美关系是一个非常棘手的问题。最好的情况是什么？最重要的是，最坏的情况是什么？
Justin Yifu Lin: I think that, well, many people talk about the Cold War, but I don't think that will not be the worst scenario in China. Because if you look the Cold War between the U.S. and former Soviet Union, they were separate economic systems. They did not have much trade. They did not have much exchanges, both goods, financial, resources and personnel exchanges. But now China and the U.S. are quite integrated. And I don't think it's possible to fully separate from the Chinese economy and the U.S. economy.
林毅夫：很多人都在谈论新冷战，但我不认为这是中国将面临的最坏情况。因为如果你回顾美国和前苏联之间的冷战，当时他们的经济体系相互独立，二者之间没有太多的贸易往来。他们在货物、金融资源和人员方面都没有太多的交流往来。相比之下，中美两国的融合程度相当高。我认为根本不可能将中国经济与美国经济完全割裂开。
Tian Wei: However, some argue that the so-called Biden economics, the characteristics of it is the containment of China.
田薇：然而，有人认为，所谓的拜登经济学主要特点在于遏制中国。您怎么看？
Justin Yifu Lin: I think that's their intention. But it doesn't mean that they can fully realize their intention. Because at the end, every country is doing policies to the benefit of their own country. And as I mentioned, certainly they have the intention to contain the growth of China. But the containment of China, they also need to pay a high cost to their economy now and in the future. I think the most important thing is that we do our things well. We do the right thing to grow the Chinese economy. We exploit our potential, and we manage our economy. I think by that, U.S. will see to have a good relation with China is to its own benefit.
林毅夫：我想这是他们的意图。但这并不意味着他们能完全实现自己的意图。因为归根结底，每个国家的政策都是为了维护自己国家的利益。正如我提到的，他们当然有意遏制中国的增长。但是要遏制中国，他们现在和未来也要付出高昂的经济代价。我认为最重要的是，我们要做好自己的事。我们要采取正确的措施来发展中国经济，充分利用中国的发展潜力，更好地管理经济发展。我认为，通过这么做，美国将意识到与中国保持良好的关系对其自身也有利。
Tian Wei: China has been, Professor Lin, as you just mentioned, committed to 2030, 2060 agenda on carbon. Carbon peak, carbon neutrality. Now, the amount that we're talking about today, only 50% can be done with the current technology and innovation, with the current energy efficiency and use of renewable energy, and also with the current governance and operational styles. There are other 50% in this overall goal that cannot be achieved unless we have real innovation in the future.
田薇：教授先生，正如你刚才所言，中国一直以来都致力于实现2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和的目标。考虑到现有技术和创新，能源效率和可再生能源的使用情况，以及目前的治理和运作方式，我们只能到期实现50%的目标。除非我们在未来有真正的创新，否则我们无法实现剩下50%的目标。您怎么看？
Justin Yifu Lin: I think we have a saying, “there’s a will, there's a way.” As you mentioned, based on current technology, we can only achieve half of the targets, but we committed to meet the targets. So that means we will spend more resources, to innovate new technology, new ways of use of the existing technologies, and to reduce the carbon emission. And those kinds of investment in technology itself, is a driver of growth. Once you have a new technology, you need to have the policy framework to encourage people to adopt the new technology. And certainly there are some costs for that. So that's the reason why if we do not care about this goal, we should be able to grow it 8 percent. But since we want to have not only growth, we also want to have high-quality growth, and they want to meet our commitment to the global communities under the kind of scenarios. Certainly, the growth, maybe moderate somewhat compared to the growth potential. But if we can do that, I think China will have a much better quality of life, and China can contribute to the global effort of the climate change. And so it’s certainly an act of balance. And I think, even we consider those acts of balance, the potential is still there.
林毅夫：中国有句古话：有志者事竟成。正如你所言，基于现有技术，我们只能到期实现一半的减排目标，但我们铁定是要实现既定目标的。因此，这意味着我们将投入更多的资源来开展技术创新和升级现有技术，从而减少碳排放。而这些对技术的投资本身就是增长动力。一旦有了新技术，就需要制定一个政策框架来鼓励人们采用新技术。当然，这有一定的代价。如果说你不关心这个目标，那么中国就应该能够实现8%的增长。但是，由于我们不仅希望有增长，我们还希望有高质量的增长，希望履行我们对国际社会的承诺。考虑到这些因素，与潜在经济增长率相比，实际增长率可能会略低一些。但如果我们能兼顾多方面因素，我认为中国人的生活质量将进一步提高，中国可以为应对全球气候变化作出贡献。所以说，我们需要统筹兼顾推动发展。即便是我们同时兼顾各种因素，中国依然拥有强大的经济增长潜力。
Justin Yifu Lin: For the advanced countries, they need to do more. Because fundamentally the causes of the carbon in the atmosphere was mostly contributed by the industrialized advanced countries. And for the climate change, as you know, the principle is common and differentiated responsibility. We commit to that and we take the responsibility. Certainly compared to the advanced countries, the carbon prices in China is lower. But compared to other developing countries, it's quite high. And so if we do our due share, we took our responsibility, and we honor our commitment. I think that with this kind of carbon trading, carbon market, I'm sure it will contribute to the effort for reducing carbon emission and to peak the carbon emission by the time of 2030 and also to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
林毅夫：对于发达国家来说，他们需要做出更多的努力。因为从根本上说，大气中的二氧化碳主要排放自工业化国家，所以他们需要做出更多的减排努力。在应对气候变化方面，各国需遵循共同但有区别责任原则。我们始终坚持这个原则，并承担相应的责任。当然，与发达国家相比，中国的碳交易价格比较低。但与其他发展中国家相比，这个价格是相当高的。因此，我们尽了自己的那份力，承担了相应的责任，履行了我们的承诺。我认为，通过这种碳交易和碳市场，中国将为减少碳排放做出贡献。此举也有助于在2030年实现碳达峰，在2060年实现碳中和的目标。