同异｜ 四方会谈：团结假象下的暗流涌动
U.S. President Joe Biden hosting the first in-person Quad meeting pretty much formalizes its “Asian NATO” designation.
美国总统拜登主持首次面对面的“四方安全对话”峰会基本将等同于宣布“亚洲版北约”成立。
From the jump, it was viewed as an anti-China move – not my words, but those of the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Morton Abramowitz. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe described it as forming an “Arc of Democracy” in Asia or specifically around China.
从一开始，“四方安全对话”就被视为遏制中国之举。这话并不是我说的，而是出自美国前助理国务卿莫顿·阿布拉莫维茨（Morton Abramowitz）之口。日本前首相安倍晋三称，该机制旨在围绕中国建立起一个亚洲的“民主之弧”。
The big question now is: Europe had an Iron Curtain, is Asia gonna have an Iron Arc?
人们最关心的问题是：正如欧洲曾竖起铁幕，亚洲会出现铁弧吗？
No.
不会。
You see, Europe’s division during the Cold War was based on a major factor: The United States and the Soviet Union were the hegemons. Both swooped in and filled the power vacuum in Europe after WWII. NATO operated well because it had one dominant will – the United States – and one single enemy – the Soviet Union.
欧洲在冷战中分裂的一个重要前提是美国和苏联均为世界霸主。二战后，两国趁虚而入，填补了欧洲的权力真空。过去，北约能够成功运作是因为美国是其唯一的意志，而苏联是其唯一敌人。
Asia is different, very different. There’s no vacuum here.
亚洲的情况则非常不同。亚洲没有真空。
Each country is a power in its own right and has its own calculation.
各国均可独当一面，并且有各自的考量。
India, for example, may well be in the Quad. But it is also a major political, economic and security partner for China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS. Japan has China as its largest trading partner.
例如，印度是“四方安全对话”成员， 但同时也是中国在上海合作组织和金砖五国机制内的主要政治、经济和安全伙伴；对于日本来说，中国是其最大的贸易伙伴。
Australia, even with its wild anti-China policies, still send about 40% of total exports to China. That money is said to be a “windfall” to the Australian government as it runs a more than $120 billion budget deficit.
澳大利亚虽有着激进的反华政策，但对华出口在其出口总量中所占份额约为40%。对于面临超过1200亿美元财政赤字的澳大利亚政府而言，这些钱被形容为是一笔“横财”。
As much as the United States would like to push these countries against China, there is a limit to what they are willing to do. They wouldn’t be as easily goaded as previous ones.
无论美国鼓动这些国家对抗中国的意愿多么强烈，他们也并非什么都愿意做。今时不同往昔，各国已不再那么容易被忽悠了。
And the U.S. itself is conflicted. Biden wants to be tough, to have an alliance of democratic countries to push America’s world view. But he also wants to work with China on many issues, including on climate change – a main sticking point of his presidency. He wants to avoid conflict with China – he said it during a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping not so long ago.
而且，就连美国自己都举棋不定。拜登想要对华强硬，并联合其他民主国家推行美国的世界观。但他也希望和中国在诸多事务上展开合作，包括其在任期内面临的主要问题之一——气候问题。拜登也希望避免和中国产生冲突，并在不久前与中国国家主席习近平的电话通话中表明了这一立场。
And this marks the greatest difference. The Quad members, including the United States, don’t actually see China as the “enemy.” I think the better designation for China in this context is “the country that they want some leverage to deal with.”
这就是关键所在。包括美国在内的“四方安全对话”成员实际上都不把中国视为所谓的“敌人”。我认为在这样的背景下，各国更想要的其实是获得一些与中国打交道中可用的筹码。
The Quad gives them that. By displaying unity, these four countries link themselves politically. So that whenever one of them is engaging with China, that shared identity could be used as leverage to force concessions.
“四方安全对话”正好能让他们如愿以偿。通过展现团结，四个成员国结成了政治上的统一战线。这样，任何成员国在对华交往中都可以利用这种共同身份迫使中国做出让步。
This security and geopolitical alliance is made up by countries with different kinds of relationship with China, to different depths and in different natures. The four countries are not exactly holding hands. They just happen to be walking in a similar direction at this moment in history.
在这一安全和地缘政治联盟中，成员国的对华关系在深度和性质上都有所不同，因此他们并非是完全意义上的团结一心。这四个国家不过是在历史长河中的这一时刻碰巧同向而行罢了。
They look like they are in this together. But, each has its own cost-and-benefit equation going on underneath. Just like the U.S. forced its submarines onto Australia, which dumped the French ones in the process, when it’s in their naked self-interest, they wouldn’t hesitate to choose themselves over their group members.
他们看似团结，然而暗地里各有算盘。就像美澳防务协议强行把法澳潜艇协议甩在一边那样，当事关自身利益时，他们会毫不犹豫地出卖盟友。
It’s not a house united; it’s a house built on sand – and this sand is shifting very quickly.
“四方安全对话”的四国并非铁板一块，而是易散的流沙一团。而且这团流沙在急速变化。