概要：经历了21世纪前20年的国土安全危机、金融危机、疫情治理危机后，美国政府仍未痛定思痛，不仅没有对本国积弊动刀，反而频频操纵媒体舆论塑造外部威胁，挥舞军事大棒向他国发难，可谓既愚且恶。不知费城年轻人血泪、“锈带”中年人怒火和“老兵”的哀叹能否在未来唤醒美国政府或许尚有残存的良知。 Editor's note: The United States has been at war for more than 200 of its 245 years of existence. Between the end of WW2 and 9/11 – barely 50 years – the U.S. initiated 201 conflicts that ravaged 153 countries and regions. "America: War by another name" is a special eight-part series that explores the sinister motivations for its warmongering. Episode 4 examines how the U.S. fabricates external threats to "save" itself. 自2009年的所谓“亚太再平衡”开始，美国便已隐然重启冷战思维，准备对太平洋对岸的其他大国进行战略围堵；2017年，特朗普政府更是在其《国家安全战略报告》中将中国、俄国称为“修正主义国家”，并在2019年正式出台《印太战略》报告，剑锋直指中国海路；及至拜登政府，美国军舰多次穿航台海、南海，在中国周边组织联合军演，美日印澳四边机制、美澳英三国联盟等准战争机器层出不穷，军事上针对中国之意昭然若揭。一个和平崛起、积极开放、不断为世界贡献建设性力量的中国为何会成为美国的眼中钉、肉中刺呢？答案不在中国这里，而在美国自身。Introducing its so-called Asia-Pacific Rebalance in 2009, the U.S. pivoted back towards a Cold War mentality that aims to strategically encircle the great powers on the other side of the Pacific. In 2017, the Trump administration called China and Russia "revisionists" in the updated U.S. National Security Strategy. In 2019, the administration released its Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, with China's maritime presence a core target. Since Joe Biden replaced Donald Trump, American warships have repeatedly passed through the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea, conducting joint military exercises around China. Warmongering instruments such as the Quad mechanism and the U.S.-UK-Australia (AUKUS) alliance have emerged one after another, apparently targeting China militarily. How could China – a country that has risen peacefully, actively opens up to the world and continuously makes great contributions to humanity – have become a thorn in the flesh for the U.S.? The answer lies with the U.S. itself, not with China. 在2008年以前美国自诩为“灯塔国”的年代，美国向世界描绘了一幅青年人朝气蓬勃、中年人奋发有为、老年人平静幸福的自由主义大国画卷。但近年来，在超级大国的光鲜外表下，社会撕裂、政治极化、种族冲突、就业困难等社会问题日益严重，底层民众的上升通道几乎关闭，美国民众普遍对未来生活丧失希望。The U.S. has always professed itself to be a beacon of democracy. It projects itself as a liberal power where the young are bursting with vitality, the middle-aged have strong aspirations, and the elderly are peaceful and happy. In recent years, however, underneath the fancy veneer of a superpower, social divisions, political polarization, racial conflicts, unemployment and other problems have been growing. At the same time, pathways for the people at the bottom of society to move up the social ladder are closing, and Americans are losing hope of a better future. 恐怖的费城 A horrendous city 费城是美国《独立宣言》的签署地和美国宪法的诞生地，在1790到1800年，费城甚至早于华盛顿成为美国的首都，可谓美国历史上不可或缺的政治“圣地”。费城一度是美国宾州最大的经济体城市，2015年，费城当选为美国首个世界遗产城市之后，更是成为美国人心中历史与现代的结晶。但是，这一与历史性《独立宣言》有着千丝万缕联系的城市却创造了另一段历史，成为全美国受毒品危机打击最严重的社区。昔日繁华的费城肯辛顿大道如今却已成为美国东海岸最大的露天毒品市场和毒瘾青年的集体流浪之所。在肯辛顿街头，随处可见毒瘾发作的年轻人蜷缩在垃圾堆里瑟瑟发抖；暂时得到“满足”的青年宛如行尸走肉，神志不清地在街头缓缓移动；正在注射毒品的少男少女“争先恐后”、面目狰狞。同时，各州毒贩普遍从费城低价“进口”毒品，再回本州高价卖出，在各种消极思潮和剧烈冲突中不知所措的年轻人大批“沦陷”。As the place where the Declaration of Independence was signed, Philadelphia, the birthplace of the American Constitution and the U.S. capital city between 1790 and 1800, is a revered city in the nation's history. It was once the biggest metropolitan economy in the state of Pennsylvania. It became America's first World Heritage city in 2015 and is seen by Americans as a perfect mix of history and modernity. But today, the once bustling Kensington Avenue in the city, linked forever to the independence pronouncement, has made dubious history by being fingered as the neighborhood hit hardest by the worst urban opioid crisis in the country. It has decayed into the largest open-air drug market along the American East Coast and a gathering place for homeless young addicts. Young people desperate for drugs shiver among garbage dumps; those having their cravings temporarily quenched deliriously slouch around like walking dead; thirsty guys eagerly inject drugs into their bodies with a ghostly look. These are common scenes on today's Kensington Avenue. Drug dealers across the country purchase their products from Philadelphia and resell them in their home states at a much higher price. A large number of young boys and girls, clueless about how to get their lives right, are lost in the turbulence. 尤其是在有色人种聚集的社区，居民几乎只能凭一己之力应对毒品问题。肯辛顿社区协会主席爱德华多•埃斯基维尔给出的解决办法是：保证毒品问题不向白人社区蔓延——尽管这些社区的居民历来是享用完购买的毒品后再离开。The residents, mostly people of color, have been practically left to deal with the drug problem in their community. Eduardo Esquivel, the president of the Kensington Neighborhood Association, calls it a policy of containment that ensures the problem does not spill over to white areas whose residents have historically driven in to buy drugs, use them, and leave. “让我们明确一点，肯辛顿扫毒成功本质上是系统性种族主义行为，” 埃斯基维尔在八月曾写道。"Let's be clear: The highly successful containment effort in Kensington is systemic racism in action," he wrote in August. 愤怒的“锈带”The angry Rust Belt 仅仅四十年前，美国的五大湖周边和中西部的制造业还是世界首屈一指的工业中心，如今的“锈带”在当年不仅不“锈”，而且是美国经济的发展引擎。但是随着大资本推动美国制造业转移以及高新科技的应用，利润更高的金融行业与成本更低的自动机器使当年的技术工人不再有用武之地，于是引擎“生锈”，失业暴增。2019年2月15日，在伊利诺伊州奥罗拉市，45岁的加里•马丁得知自己将被服务了15年的工厂辞退，情绪激动，拔枪射击，在造成5人死亡，6名警察受伤之后，马丁本人也被击毙。这样的惨剧中，凶手固然不容于法，但美国政府对失业者的冷淡态度也足以令家庭、社会压力最大的中年人陷入绝望。特朗普时期，美国政府并没有像他承诺的那样，“为锈带止血”，美国失业率反而达到历史最高。而拜登政府执政以来，美国失业率有所下降，但在经济与疫情的双重冲击下，美国失业人口的生活状况则更加堪忧。A mere 40 years ago, the area around the Great Lakes and the Midwest was dominated by top-notch industrial hubs. The Rust Belt, as it has become known, was not "rusty" back then but an engine for America's economic development. However, the rising costs of labor, the capital-intensive nature of manufacturing, competition from overseas and new technologies resulted in the displacement of workers. The engine thus went rusty, and unemployment soared. On February 15, 2019, Gary Montez Martin in Aurora, Illinois – like Pennsylvania a Rust Belt state – was sacked by the factory where he had worked for 15 years. In a rage, the 45-year-old went on a shooting spree. After killing five and injuring another six police officers, Martin was shot dead. What the perpetrator did was certainly a heinous crime, but equally unacceptable is the government's indifference to the unemployed. It was cruel enough to throw a middle-aged man under tremendous family and social pressure into despair. In the Trump era, Washington did not save the Rust Belt as the president once promised. Instead, the unemployment rate in the area shot up to a record high. Although it has gone down since Biden was sworn in, the lives of the jobless are no less worrying under the double blow of the pandemic and economic shutdown. 凋零的“老兵”The uncared-for seniors 每个国家的老年人都曾是一个时代国家、社会发展的功臣，但美国的老年人却在经济和生活中陷入了极其尴尬的境地。随着美国老龄化程度加深，退休人群比例快速飙升，但创收人群的比例却稳步下降，这一倒挂趋势会随着平均寿命的增加而继续扩大，于是老年人只能大量透支未来财富，未来几代人年轻人都将为此背上沉重负担，这使得代际矛盾空前加剧。在此次美国的新冠疫情中，在未来没有“经济价值”却会制造经济负担的老年人几乎无人问津，老年人得到的医疗资源不足青年人一半，而死亡率却是青年人的两倍左右。面对这种局面，美国得克萨斯州副州长帕特里克在接受福克斯新闻网采访时竟然表示，“美国经济不能因为新冠疫情而被打垮，很多老人愿意为了拯救国家而牺牲自己”。老者闻之，可谓无不心寒。Once heroes in America's development, the elderly are caught in an awkward situation now. As the country continues to age, retirees are taking up a greater share of the population, while the earning population is in steady decline. The increase in the average life expectancy only exacerbates this trend. As a result, the elderly have to live on a huge amount of social wealth that is supposed to be reserved for future generations, putting pressure on younger generations, hence the unprecedentedly heated intergenerational animosity. During the coronavirus pandemic, the elderly have been disregarded – because they have nearly zero economic value and only create financial burdens. With less than half of the medical resources accessible to younger people, the elderly are twice as likely to die from the virus as the young. When asked to comment on this in an interview of Fox News, Dan Patrick, the lieutenant governor of Texas, said the U.S. couldn't afford an economic collapse due to the pandemic, and old people should volunteer to die to save the country. It is not hard to imagine that many senior citizens would have been bitterly disappointed by those words. 面对前途渺茫的老中青三代人，美国政府有何作为？作为垄断资本的代言人，美国政府不可能彻底改变现有经济发展的模式，也无力扭转政治极化的趋势，更难以在短时间内解决国内身份政治的矛盾。美国政界、军界想到的是两个饮鸩止渴的“良策”，目的只是为了躲避民众的千夫所指。Facing people – young, middle-aged, and the elderly – who have lost hope for the future, what has the U.S. government done? As a representative for monopoly capital, Washington cannot fundamentally change the current economic model, nor would it be capable enough to reverse the trend of political polarization, and it would be even more unlikely to solve the domestic conflicts on identity politics within a short period. Therefore, politicians and those in the military came up with a "good" plan – to try to quench a thirst with poison to exonerate themselves from public blame. 一是“麻醉”。进一步为毒品合法化大开绿灯，从生理上麻醉青年人；把国内就业困难、产业空心化的责任甩给国外的新兴经济体，从精神上麻醉中年人；用近似冷战的政策向患有“苏联PTSD”的群体提供“回忆服务”，从思想上麻醉老年人。被麻醉的民众或者对生活醉生梦死，或者对“敌人”怨声载道，政府则乐见其效。One part of the plan is to numb the people: to numb the young physiologically by further legalizing drugs, to numb the middle-aged psychologically by blaming emerging economies for domestic problems such as unemployment and industrial hollowing-out, and to numb the elderly ideologically by adopting what looks like the Cold War policy of providing "remembering services" to those suffering from Soviet Union PTSD. As a result, numbed Americans either indulge themselves in temporary pleasures or harbor grudges towards so-called enemies. This is exactly what the U.S. government wants to see. 二是“造势”。将中、俄等政治体制、意识形态、发展模式与美国不同的大国描述为国际秩序的“修正主义者”，使美国民众感到巨大的外部危机已在眼前。美国试图把中美关系推向“新冷战”的对立局势，意图像曾经击败苏联一样，打垮中国。虽然拜登口头说不要冷战，但只不过是口蜜腹剑的把戏。听其言，更需观其行，美国这两届政府屡屡对华进行挑衅，在贸易、科技、金融、信息、人权等领域发生摩擦，利用中国这一共同“敌人”消弭两党分歧，谋求国内团结。The other part is to create a false sense of crisis. Washington depicts major powers with different political institutions, ideologies and development models – for instance, China and Russia – as revisionists challenging the existing international order, making ill-informed Americans believe that a major external crisis is looming large. The U.S. attempts to drag China into a new Cold War in the hope of crushing China as it once did the Soviet Union. Biden has indeed said no to a new Cold War. Well, an iron hand in a velvet glove. The two most recent U.S. administrations have repeatedly waged conflicts against China on trade, technology, finance, information and human rights, using China as a common external enemy to mend a partisan divide at home. 但是，这种“讳疾忌医”的做法，只是暂时转嫁矛盾，而没有解决问题。造成美国经济衰退的经济制度没有改变，引发美国社会矛盾的政治极化也没有改变。这种以大国对抗转移国内视线的行为对美国百害而无一利。一方面，所谓“假话真不了”，中国既没有进攻美国的军事行为，也没有取代美国的战略意图，美国政府的谎言最终难以自圆其说；另一方面，如此行为会进一步导致美国错过解决自身问题的时机，而代价却必然由美国民众承担。This may shift blame temporarily but would not address the problems. Neither the economic system at the root of America's economic slowdown nor political polarization that triggers social conflicts has changed in any way. Directing public attention from domestic issues using great power confrontation would only harm America's own interests. For one thing, lies are lies. China has no strategic intention to militarily attack the U.S. or replace it, leaving Washington's false claims unjustifiable. For another, indulging in this type of political game means the U.S. could miss future opportunities to address its own problems, and the public will have to pay the price. 经历了21世纪前20年的国土安全危机、金融危机、疫情治理危机后，美国政府仍未痛定思痛，不仅没有对本国积弊动刀，反而频频操纵媒体舆论塑造外部威胁，挥舞军事大棒向他国发难，可谓既愚且恶。不知费城的血泪，“锈带”的怒火，“老兵”的哀叹能否在未来唤醒美国政府或许尚有残存的良知。Washington has not drawn any lessons from the homeland security, financial and pandemic management crises that struck America during the first two decades of the 21st century. Rather than tackling its own long-standing problems, it repeatedly, stupidly and maliciously manipulates the media to fabricate external threats and brandishes a military stick to threaten other countries. Will the horror in Philadelphia, the anger of the Rust Belt and the lament of seniors prick the conscience of any U.S. government? 作者系中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员张一飞The author, Zhang Yifei, is an associate research fellow at the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 推荐阅读：评论数说丨中国劳动力市场灵活自主性日益增强 数说评论丨别再猜了！这才是新疆人口变化的真相！