年终深度评论 | 2021年：新危机，新秩序，新格局
Editor's note: This is the in-depth summary article of the "2021 Year in Review" series on "New Crises, New Orders and New Paradigms." The article reflects the summarized authors' opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
编者按：这是年终系列《2021年：新危机，新秩序，新格局》的总述。文章观点代表该系列文章中作者的声音，不代表CGTN的观点。
今天是这一年的最后一天。2021年充满新危机、新秩序、新格局。人们被电闪雷鸣般的危机重创，在风云变幻的秩序中疑虑，于碧空如洗的新格局中迎来充满自信的阳光。
New crises
新危机
This year, many countries were still plagued by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and Delta and Omicron variants are worsening the situation, but gladly vaccines were there just in time.
今年，很多国家依然被持续的新冠病毒肆虐，而德尔塔和奥密克戎变种加剧了这一状况，好在疫苗及时被研发出来。
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, noted that "at the time of writing, more than one-third of the world's population is fully vaccinated."
正如世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞在其文中提到的那样，“在我写这篇文章的时候，世界有三分之一的人口已经完全接种。”
Meanwhile, many economies were still trying to recover from the pandemic, but they find that they were faced with a supply-chain crisis. Why? Djoomart Otorbaev, former prime minister of the Kyrgyz Republic explained that "the main reason for the boom in traffic was a colossal pumping of liquidity by central banks in the U.S., Europe and Japan."
与此同时，多国经济因新冠疫情复苏乏力，而产业链危机让它们雪上加霜。这是如何造成的呢？吉尔吉斯共和国前总理德约马尔特·奥拓尔巴耶夫解释道，“造成货物拥堵的主因是美、欧、日本等国家和地区的央行采取的巨大资金流动性措施。”
Climate is an old problem with new focal points. The ice and snow in the Arctic melted faster than ever before and the area saw its first rain in centuries. Outside the Arctic area, people in many cities have seen extreme weather conditions with floods and drought, which caused great environmental disaster for all the living species on Earth. The good news is that all relevant parties sit together to discuss biodiversity at COP15 in China's Kunming and all parties especially the U.S. and China signed another agreement at COP26 for the better lives for their offspring.
气候是个带来新危机的老问题。北极圈里的冰雪融化速度比以往任何时候都要迅速，而在北冰洋人们第一次看见雨水。在北极圈之外，多座城市中的民众经历了或是洪水或是干旱的极端天气状况，这也让地球上所有生灵遭受了严重的环境灾难。好消息是，所有利益攸关方齐聚中国昆明，在COP15上讨论了如何保护生物多样性，并一道在COP26上坐下来讨论并签署了包括中美在内都达成一致的新协议。
As Tu Ruihe, UNEP representative for China, pointed out in the article "UNEP and China: A shared green dream" that "China's role in regional and global environmental protection efforts has transformed from a participant, follower and contributor to a leader, adding even more positivity to its image as a responsible major country."
正如联合国环境署驻华代表涂瑞和在其文章《联合国环境署与中国的绿色缘》中所指出的那样，“中国在全球和地区环境进程中，已经完成从参与者、跟随者、贡献者，到引领者的转变，树立了积极正面的负责任大国形象。”
New orders
新秩序
Throughout the year, people of many nations have witnessed leadership changes, but whether these politicians would make their people's lives better still remains a question mark, as citizens of some war-torn countries once again experienced uncertainty with new politicians trying to build new orders, with refugees in desperate need for help.
多国民众见证了各自国家新领导人的登台亮相，但这些政客会否让民众过得更好还是个问号，因为在一些国家，饱受战乱的民众又一次经受了不确定性，在那里新来的政客试图建立新秩序，而难民期待被救助。
First of all, on January 6, the world was shocked to see rioters storm the U.S. Capitol. Although half a month later, Joe Biden was sworn in as the new president, people in and out America have not seen things go better since then.
首先，1月6日，美国国会骚乱让世界震惊。半个月后，尽管乔·拜登就任新总统，但半年之后，美国国内外的民众并没有感觉状况有多大改善。
Sun Chenghao, a research fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said that actually nothing has changed really in his article "New crises and a new stage: 1 year into Biden's China policy", "The Biden doctrine is another form of 'America First'."
清华大学战略与安全研究中心客座研究员孙成昊在其《新危机和新舞台：拜登对华政策一周年》中指出其实政策并未改变，“拜登主义不过是‘美国优先’的另一种样式。”
Secondly, with the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, Japan was also under much spotlight this year. However, it became irresponsible to other neighboring countries as its government decided to dump the Fukushima nuclear wastewater into the Pacific, and the COVID-19 cases in the cities continue to rise, even during the Olympics.
第二，今年，东京2020年奥运会的举办让日本成为焦点。不过，日本今年宣布会将福岛核电站废水排放到太平洋，以及在奥运会期间新冠病例数的持续增长，不仅殃及邻国，而且是不负责任的举动。
This led to the election of a new prime minister, Fumio Kishida. All eyes are gazed at him from the beginning of his term of office in October. Although he tried to actively build a new order by putting new officials in several senior positions, there are still limits, as Chen Yang, an adjunct research fellow at the Center for Japanese Studies at Liaoning University, said in his article "Can Fumio Kishida foster a new order in China-Japan ties?" that "amidst the intensifying rivalry between China and the U.S., it is difficult for Japan to fundamentally adjust its China policy if there is no obvious turnaround in China-U.S. relations."
这让日本又有了一位新首相。在岸田文雄于10月开启他的任期后，目光都聚焦于他，因为他的确在几个高层的位置上安排了数位亲华派官员。不过，这位日本人还是有其局限性，正如辽宁大学日本中心客座研究员陈洋在其《岸田文雄能构建中日关系新秩序吗？》一文中所指出的那样，“在中美博弈加剧的背景下，只要中美关系未出现明显的转圜，那么日本的对华政策也难以出现根本性的调整。”
Thirdly, as the U.S. got a new president after four years, one of its most important allies in Europe - Germany - also got a new chancellor. Angela Merkel ended her 16-year tenure, longer than any U.S. president after World War II.
第三，当美国于4年后看见一位新总统那样，其在欧洲最重要的盟友之一的德国也迎来一位新总理。安格拉·默克尔结束了其16年的任期，这比美国战后任何一位总统的任期都要长。
When a strong politician leaves the stage, many would expect there would be drastic policy changes. However, as stable as Germany is, her successor, Olaf Scholz from the Social Democratic Party, seems set to continue Merkel's policies. But just like Japan has its limits, Germany also faces its own reality, as Zhang Mengyuan, a 2019-2020 German Chancellor fellow at Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, mentions in her article "Post-Merkel political order: old reform or new inheritance?" that his policy approach will need to "balance the strong will to change of his coalition partners in the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party."
当一位强有力的政客离开政坛，许多人也许会期待不小的政策变革。不过，德国有多稳定，她的继任者，来自社会民主党的奥拉夫·朔尔茨在延续她的政策上就有多平缓。但正如日本有其局限性那样，德国也有其现实，正如2019-2020德国洪堡基金会德国总理奖学金获得者张梦圆在其《后默克尔时代政治秩序：旧变革还是新延续？》中所言，朔尔茨的政策将需要“衡量执政伙伴绿党和自民党对改变的强烈诉求。”
She also points out that "after Merkel's farewell to the Chancellery, voices have been raised that Germany should build more Chinakompetenz (China competence), especially in terms of education and diplomacy, to enhance the narrative and the understanding of complicated China."
她还指出，“默克尔告别总理府后，德国社会出现越来越多应该建立‘中国能力’的呼声，特别是从教育和外交任务层面，增进对复杂中国的叙述和理解。”
Fourthly, this year, the most dramatic changes come from the Middle East and its neighboring Afghanistan, with major elections happened in Iran, Israel and Iraq, a rebranding of an organization by Turkey, and a new Afghan order shaped by the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the return of the Taliban.
第四，今年，变化最剧烈的地区来自中东和与之相邻的阿富汗，伊朗、以色列、伊拉克都举行了重要的大选，土耳其更名了一个国家组织，阿富汗在美军的撤出和塔利班的回归之后试图建立一套新秩序。
Yin Gang, a research fellow at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in his analysis that although the three elections in different nations led to new leaders and ended some political eras, their policies will likely remain similar or the same.
中国社科院西亚与非洲研究所研究员殷罡在其分析文中写道，虽然在不同国家的三场大选都选出了新领导人并且结束了一些政治时代，但这些国家的政策或将延续之前的，不大会有改变。
While the U.S.' influence in the region has been declining, China's role has been more constructive than ever before, as Irene Wang, an international observer at Liaowang Institute, said in her article, "China is now the region's single largest investor and the largest trading partner to 11 Middle Eastern countries." With a special focus on Afghanistan, "When most aid was frozen from the West, China pledged $37 million worth of humanitarian assistance," and by the end of the year, according to the latest reports, Afghanistan's caretaker government began to distribute the China-aided humanitarian supplies to the country's 34 provinces.
虽然美国在中东的影响力有所下降，但中国在这一地区所扮演的建设性角色却与日俱增。瞭望智库国际观察员王博闻在其文章中提道，“中国现在是这一地区最大的投资国，而且是11个中东国家最大贸易伙伴。”特别是对于阿富汗而言，“当西方撤走大多数援助之后，中国承诺给予一份价值3700万美元的人道主义援助，”而在年终之际，据媒体报道，阿富汗临时政府开始将中国捐赠的一批人道主义援助物资分发给该国34个省的民众。
New paradigms
新格局
With uncertainties more than ever in many parts of the world, the only certainty is that with a new paradigm, China has got new and bright answers not only for its own people for many years to come, but it is also willing to cooperate with all countries that share the notion of peace and prosperity for all humankind.
在世界多地充满不确定性的背景下，唯一的定力是中国的新格局。中国的规划不仅让中国人在未来数年走什么路有了答案，也显现出同世界一切热爱人类和平与繁荣的国家合作的愿景。
Ian Goodrum, a member of the Edgar Snow Newsroom and the international department of the Communist Party of the United States, praised China in his article "A new paradigm: China takes 14th Five-Year Plan as bold step into 2022", “it is China that gave the world the firmest solutions into the future.”
“新时代斯诺工作室”成员和美国共产党国际部成员伊谷然在其《新格局：中国在“十四五”规划指引下阔步迈向2022》一文中盛赞中国，认为是中国给了世界未来最坚定有力的方案。
China passed two great documents this year, one was in spring and the other was in winter. The spring document blossoms with a brand new plan - 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2021-2025) along with Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.
今年中国通过两个文件，一个是在春天，另一个是在冬天。传递了春天气息的文件是一个全新的规划——《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》。
In Goodrum's words, China makes plans and keeps that promise annually, "Each year, China sets goals and meets them, proving to the world that it is possible to enjoy a stable, sustainable development that benefits all."
伊谷然认为，中国每年都制定计划并且信守诺言，“每一年，中国都会制定目标并如期实现。这向世界表明，实现稳定的、可持续的、惠及全体人民的发展并非天方夜谭。”
The winter document was a resolution to survey the century of the Party's history, comprehensively contextualizing the journey it has been on since its founding in 1921.
就如在冬天总结一年的历史那样，冬天通过的那份文件是一份历史决议，名叫《中共中央关于党的百年奋斗重大成就和历史经验的决议》，全面总结了中国共产党自1921年成立以来所走过的百年奋斗历程。
Another new paradigm that the U.S. needs to adapt was concluded by Keith Lamb, an Oxford graduate with an MSc degree in Contemporary Chinese Studies, who wrote in his article that "the world is transitioning from unipolarity, dominated by the U.S., to a multipolar order characterized by the relative diffusion of power to other countries, like Russia and China."
获得过牛津大学现代中国研究硕士学位的时事评论员基斯·兰姆则在其文中总结了美国要适应的另一个新格局，“世界正从美国主导的单极化格局转变为诸如中国和俄罗斯等力量相对平等的大国所倡导的多极化格局当中去。”
The world has changed forever, not just in 2021. But more questions were posed. Where will we go from now on? How should we act? Although China has many great answers, its people also needs to cooperate with all people from all over the world, because we live in a shared future for all humankind.
世界已经发生了质的改变，不仅仅是在2021年。但是更多的问题出现了——我们去往何方？应该如何行动？虽然中国有很多伟大的答案，但中国人也需要同世界各国人民一道合作，因为我们生活在人类命运共同体当中。
See you in 2022!
2022年见！