世界观察 | 新冠病毒是“大号流感”么？中英韩三国专家回应

当前，奥密克戎变异毒株已在全球广泛传播，全球新冠肺炎疫情形势再次进入到快速发展阶段。我国本土疫情呈现出点多、面广、频发的特点，疫情防控形势严峻复杂，疫情防控难度加大。同时，奥密克戎变异株有两大特点：一方面是传染性强，传播速度快；另一方面，相当一部分人在感染此变异株后无症状或症状不明显。有些国家和地区甚至已经出现 “躺平”的现象。

那么，奥密克戎变异毒株最终会演变成“大号流感”吗？为了适应形势变化，防疫措施会有所调整吗？“群体免疫”还远吗？CGTN主持人田薇邀请来自中国、韩国、英国的三位医学专家深入分析。

The Omicron variant is currently widespread throughout the world, the global epidemic situation is again in a rapidly developing phase. The epidemic in China is characterized by an unprecedented surge in terms of new cases over the past few days. The stress on epidemic prevention and control measures has increased. Meanwhile, the Omicron variant has two major characteristics. On one hand, it is highly contagious and spreads quickly. On the other hand, there are a significant number of people infected with the Omicron variant, that are asymptomatic or have insignificant symptoms. Some countries and regions have even resigned themselves to "living with the virus."

So, is the Omicron variant evidence of Covid transitioning into something endemic like a flu? Are we going to see herd immunity very soon? CGTN's Tian Wei invites three medical experts from China, South Korea and the UK to give an in-depth analysis.

“奥密克戎”会演变成“大号流感”了吗？

Will the Omicron variant eventually become like the flu?

也许很多人都希望新冠疫情变成“流感”。但现实是：截至目前，还没有这类演变的明显迹象。中韩英三国各有其特殊的形势。但这三位专家都认为，新冠防控的方法需要不断演变、及时调整、相互借鉴、长期研究。

Many people may be hoping that the pandemic will turn into the "flu." But there seems to be no clear signs of such an evolution so far. Each of the three countries, China, South Korea and the UK, has its own particular situation. One thing in common, however, is that all three experts agree that the approach to the prevention and control of the pandemic needs to evolve and adjust in a timely manner, where we learn from each country and undergo long-term study.

英国兰卡斯特大学生物医学讲师、病毒学家穆罕默德·穆尼尔博士表示，新冠最终可能会变得像流感和地方性病毒，但在目前的状态下，并不像流感。若回顾新冠疫情的这七波传播，没有任何一波对社会的影响和流感对社会的影响相同，新冠病毒和流感病毒的生物学特性也完全不一样。

Dr. Muhammad Munir, Virologist and Lecturer in Biomedicine, Health and Medicine at Lancaster University, told CGTN's Tian Wei that it might eventually end up like a flu or an endemic virus. But at this moment, it is not the case. Because if people look at all these seven waves, none of these waves are similar to the flu in terms of the impact on to society. And even if people look onto the biology of these two viruses, SARS is a completely different virus than the flu. 

南京大学医学院公共健康研究中心主任吴稚伟同意穆罕默德·穆尼尔博士的看法。他认为，新冠病毒似乎看上去越来越像流感，但我们对于新冠病毒的了解只有不到3年的时间，对其生物学和变异信息的了解都非常有限，还需要一些时间才能得出结论。

Wu Zhiwei, Director of Center for Public Health Research, Medical School of Nanjing University, agrees with Dr. Munir’s point that eventually this COVID-19 probably will be like a flu. It seems to be getting more and more like the flu. But right now, people do only have very limited information on its biology and its mutation as well. The coronavirus has been known for only about three years. So it will take time before people come down to a conclusion.

韩国首尔妇幼综合医院的内科临床副教授爱丽丝·谭也强调，奥密克戎和流感没有什么可比性，新冠肺炎的影响非同小可。对于“奥密克戎很像流感”的说话，至少目前韩国并非如此。因为仅在三月份的前3周，奥密克戎致死的病例就达大约4700人。而在流感流行的一年时间中，韩国各年龄段因流感死亡的人数是大约5300人。

Dr. Alice Hyun-Kyung Tan, Internist at MizMedi Women’s Hospital, thinks there is really no comparison between the Omicron variant and the flu. The impacts of the disease can be huge. So any talk of Omicron being mild or Omicron being like influenza really does not apply to South Korea at this moment, because the number of deaths due to Omicron, which is about 4,700 deaths in the first three weeks of March alone, is in stark contrast to the number of flu deaths in South Korea in a typical year, which is about 5,300. 

“群体免疫”真的不远了吗？

Are we going to see "herd immunity" very soon?

对于人类会不会很快实现所谓“群体免疫”，医学专家给出的答案是：还远不可能。

When it comes to the possibility of so-called "herd immunity," the answer of medical experts is "far from possible."

在英国的穆罕默德·穆尼尔博士解释，群体免疫只针对稳定的病毒。但目前有两个问题，一是疫苗或自然感染产生的免疫力是短暂的。随着时间的推移，之前获得的免疫力会下降，绝大多数人会容易再次被病毒感染；二是病毒一直在变异，当新的变异毒株出现时，现有的群体免疫就很可能不再持续。

Dr. Muhammad Munir, who in the UK, says we can expect that herd immunity could only be achieved against viruses that are stable. But here are two questions. First, the immunity that is based on vaccines or by natural infection is very short-lived. The immunity goes down and people again remain vulnerable to the infection over time. 

The second aspect is that the virus is mutating. So when new variants emerge, the existing immunity of the population, which the "herd immunity," might not be sustainable.

同时他还强调，大多数变异毒株最早都是从未接种疫苗的人群中被发现的，每一个没有接种疫苗的国家都有可能产生更多的变异毒株，而且全球化也会让变异毒株扩散到全球范围，实现所谓“群体免疫”还是异想天开。

And also, one thing he would like to highlight is that most of the variants have emerged from unvaccinated populations. Every nation that is not vaccinated will have a likelihood of incubating more and more variants and those come to global scale with the globalization. So he thinks herd immunity is probably too dire to think about.

对于未来疫情的发展，爱丽丝·谭医生表示还要考虑其他的可能性，需要制定应对计划。

Dr. Alice Hyun-Kyung Tan also reminds the other possibilities that experts need to consider, and have a plan for in the future. 

一种是出现变异毒株重组，除了病毒重组问题还可能出现在其他冠状病毒上，这些病毒上的“有机体”可能导致新的问题。还有一种可能性叫做抗体依赖性增强。在这种情况下，无论是自然感染过还是通过疫苗接种得到免疫力，当你第二次被病毒感染时，实际上可能比第一次严重得多。

One concern is the emergence of recombinant viruses. And this is another possibility seen with other coronaviruses species, in which there's something called organotropism. In organotropism, Covid could either become milder or become a much more severe disease.

And there's also the possibility of antibody dependent enhancement. In which case, what happens is people have immunity, either through natural infection, or through vaccination. But then when they are reinfected with the virus the second time, the second infection can be actually much more severe than the first infection.

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