决策者 | 谨防粮食危机演变成自然灾害
Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for influential leaders to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Joao Campari is a global food practice leader at WWF International. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
编者按：《决策者》是全球决策制定者分享对国际事务见解的平台。若昂·坎帕里是世界自然基金会全球食品业务负责人。作者观点不代表CGTN立场。
It is now well known that global food systems are facing a crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine. Supplies of cereals and oilseed are being dramatically limited, whitefish supply could be similarly impacted and food prices, along with fertilizer and fuel prices, are soaring. All of this impacts the amount of food available now and for at least another year. This tragedy comes on top of an existing crisis – the pandemic which has already rocked food systems, disrupting supply chains and driving food prices to record highs. According to the UN World Food Program, there are as many as 276 million acutely food insecure people in the world; 141 million more than before the pandemic. Without urgent action, climate change and nature loss will add to this bleak picture, by seriously endangering food production and rapidly escalating hunger.
众所周知，受乌克兰战争的影响，全球粮食系统正面临危机。谷物、油籽和白鱼供应严重受限；粮食、化肥以及燃料价格都在飙升。所有这些都影响着现在以及未来至少一年内的粮食供应。此外，目前仍在持续的疫情危机已经造成了全球粮食系统动荡，扰乱了供应链，并将粮食价格推上了历史新高。据联合国世界粮食计划署统计，全球有多达2.76亿人面临严重的粮食危机问题，较疫情前增加了1.41亿。如果不采取紧急行动，气候变化和自然损失将严重威胁粮食生产并使饥饿问题急剧恶化，让当前的严峻形势雪上加霜。
While world leaders craft short-term responses to this tragic moment, it is imperative they also assess trade-offs and take long-sighted actions. Critically they must navigate the consequences of war without taking actions that hinder our ability to limit climate change and reverse nature loss. Only by aligning short-term responses with long-term solutions can we prevent today's food crisis from becoming the failure of nature, climate and, ultimately, of food systems themselves.
世界各国领导人在制定应对当前危机时刻的短期对策的同时，他们还应权衡利弊，并采取有远见的行动。关键是，他们在应对战争所造成的后果时，不应妨碍我们为防止气候变化和自然损失而采取的行动。只有将短期的应对举措与长期的解决方案结合起来，我们才能防止当下的粮食危机演变为自然、气候乃至粮食系统的失败。
Absorbing short-term stresses
吸收短期压力
Ukraine, a country which has been helping to nourish 400 million people around the world, is now increasingly reliant on food aid. The war is impacting people all over the world, particularly the most vulnerable who are already most affected by higher food prices and limited supplies. Leaders are well justified in securing food supplies for the citizens they serve, but turning inward, halting exports or trying to develop self-sufficiency in food production is not the way to go. This could weaken the global food system as a whole and lead to a cascade of other undesirable impacts, on nature, climate and livelihoods.
乌克兰一直向全世界4亿人口提供粮食，目前正越来越依赖粮食援助。这场战争正在影响世界各地的人，特别是那些受食品价格上涨和有限供应影响最为严重的弱势群体。各国领导人优先保障本国公民的粮食供应无可厚非，但缩小开放程度、停止出口或尝试在粮食生产上实现自给自足却并非正确做法，因为这可能会削弱整个全球粮食系统，并对自然、气候和生活造成一系列其他不良影响。
While local production for local consumption can be fundamental to community resilience and crisis mitigation, especially for those who live in fragile contexts, the livelihoods of huge populations could be severely affected if the world's major importing countries seek self sufficiency or limit their trade. Only 11–28 percent of the global population can fulfill their demand for specific crops within a 100km radius. Hundreds of millions depend economically on exporting produce to countries in the Global North.
虽然粮食生产实现自给自足对于增强社会韧性和缓解危机至关重要，特别是对于那些生活在脆弱环境中的人们来说尤为如此。但如果世界主要的进口国追求自给自足或者限制贸易往来，无数人的生计将受到严重影响。全球仅有11-28%的人口能够在100公里半径内满足他们对特定粮食作物的需求。数以亿计的人在经济上依赖向发达国家出口农产品。
Turning inward could also have drastic impacts on nature and climate. Many countries import large amounts of food and have no room for sustainably increasing production. In general, short-term increases in food supply rely on intensifying production by increasing chemical inputs that pollute and degrade ecosystems, or converting nature to expand farmland. This will only add pressures to a planet that is already operating beyond its regenerative capacity. If climate change and nature loss are not halted, fertile land and healthy waters, growing cycles, yields and nutrient density of crops are all projected to decrease. Short-term actions to improve food security may lead to important trade-offs that must be carefully assessed so as to harm neither people nor planet it in the long run.
缩小开放还会对自然和气候产生重大影响。许多国家进口大量粮食，粮食生产不具备可持续增长空间。一般而言，短期粮食供应的增加依赖于提高生产，具体措施是使用更多会污染和破坏生态系统的化学药品或者开荒造田。这会使已经在以超出其自身再生能力超负荷运转的地球承受更大的压力。如果气候变化和自然损失得不到遏制，肥沃的土地和健康的水资源将减少，耕种周期将被缩短，粮食产量以及农作物养分浓度也会降低。由于改善粮食安全的短期措施可能导致重要的权衡取舍，必须仔细评估这些利弊，才能保证人类和地球的长远利益不受损害。
Dolphin restaurant has been transformed into a refuge center where you can have lunch for free, in Uzhhorod, Transcarpathia, Ukraine, March 25 2022. /VCG
In the short-term, leaders must work together and do all they can to keep supply chains open and countries should refrain from adopting export bans. It is also necessary to increase supply without encroaching on nature, to help meet immediate needs. An estimated 13.5 million tonnes of wheat and 16 million tonnes of maize are currently stuck in Ukraine and Russia – 23 and 43 percent of their expected exports in 2021/22. Yet every year, there are 1.2 billion tonnes of food that don't make it off farms across the world, including 196 million tonnes of cereals and pulses. Even if it is not possible to immediately redirect all this food into supply chains, aggressively tackling post-harvest losses can help alleviate current stresses on food supply.
短期内，各国领导人必须携手合作，不遗余力地保障供应链畅通。同时，各国也应慎用出口禁令。同时，还应在不侵犯自然的前提下增加供应，以帮助满足眼下的需求。据估计，目前约有1350万吨小麦和1600万吨玉米滞留在乌克兰和俄罗斯，分别占两国2021-2022年度计划出口量的23%和43%。每年，无法从农场运往世界各地的粮食约12亿吨，其中包括1.96亿吨谷物和豆类。虽然无法将这些粮食立即纳入供应链体系，但积极应对收割后的损失有助于减轻目前的粮食供应压力。
Building long-term resilience and sustainability
增强长期韧性及可持续性
There are many ways in which supply chains can be improved to enhance resilience in the face of future shocks, precluding the argument that environmental legislation must be relaxed in the name of increasing food production. By using data systems and logistics, supply chains can become more agile and help match supply with demand and absorb short-term shocks. They would be supported by policies that address equity and access issues, making healthy food affordable for all, and remove wasteful practices, including rejecting imports of imperfect but edible produce.
增强供应链承受未来冲击的韧性能力手段多种多样，放松环境立法限制并不是增加粮食生产的唯一手段。数据系统和物流的使用能够提高供应链的灵活性，促进供需平衡并抵御短期冲击。为保障这些手段的运用，相关政策应当致力于解决公平和分配问题，让所有人都能负担得起健康食品，同时抵制浪费，包括禁止进口可食用但有瑕疵的农产品。
It is essential to invest in long-term behaviors like adopting nature-positive food production practices, including agro-ecological and regenerative practices that improve soil and ecosystems health, to reduce impacts and build resilience. We can also ease pressures on nature by diversifying crop production and food supplies and sources, rehabilitating degraded farmland and over-exploited waters, reducing food loss and waste, and shifting to healthier and more sustainable diets that include a larger proportion of plant-based foods.
投资于长期行为是很重要的，例如采用环保的粮食生产实践，包括农业生态和再生性实践，这些实践有助于改善土壤和生态系统健康、减少环境影响并增强生态系统韧性。我们也可以通过以下方法减少对环境的压力：使粮食生产、供应及来源多样化；修复退化的农田和过度开发的水域；减少粮食损失和浪费；转向更健康、更环保的饮食、包括多吃植物性食物。
We are at a tipping point for the future of our planet. Already, planetary boundaries on climate change, biosphere integrity, land-use change and biogeochemical cycles have been crossed. The last 12 months have seen major climate-driven disruptions in key food production areas in U.S., Canada, Australia and some nations in Latin America, and increasingly unbearable pressure in vulnerable regions such as the Horn of Africa. Unfortunately, we must expect further disruptions to food systems from pandemics or conflict, which may even stem from the need to control resources and achieve domestic food and water security. But reducing pressures of food systems on nature will lead to healthier ecosystems that will, in turn, decrease the chances of zoonotic diseases passing from animals to humans and sparking pandemics, and reduce the likelihood of countries fighting over limited healthy land and water.
我们正处在地球未来的转折点。地球在气候变化、生物圈完整性、土地利用变化以及生物地球化学循环方面的界限已经被跨越。过去12个月，美国、加拿大、拉丁美洲和澳大利亚的主要粮食产区因气候变化而受到严重影响，非洲之角等脆弱地区承受的压力也越来越大。遗憾的是，我们必须预料到疫情或地区冲突势必会进一步扰乱粮食系统，这甚至可能源自于各国控制自身资源、保障国内粮食及水安全的需要。但是，减轻粮食系统对自然的压力能够促进生态系统更健康的发展，进而减少人畜共患疾病从动物传播到人类并引发流行病的机会，并减少各国争夺有限健康土地及水资源的可能性。
Building sustainable food systems is core to a healthy, peaceful and climate-resilient future. The war in Ukraine demands our immediate attention but, as with any crisis where food is involved, it requires a long-term strategy together with a short-term solution. Focusing only on the here and now could aggravate the fragility of the overall food system in the medium and long-term. Our food systems have had to contend with two unfathomable crises in the past two years alone. Our response must focus on the next two decades as much as today, and stay true to our shared imperatives of reversing nature loss and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, while providing everyone with enough healthy and nutritious food.
建立可持续发展的粮食体系对于打造健康、和平和具有气候适应能力的未来至关重要。乌克兰战争应当引起我们的及时关注，但与其他涉及粮食的危机一样，这也需要我们制定长期应对策略和短期解决方案。仅关注眼下的状况，可能会在中长期加剧粮食系统的整体脆弱性。仅在过去两年，我们的粮食系统就不得不应对两场深不可测的危机。我们的应对措施必须像今天一样关注未来20年，并坚守我们共同的责任：扭转自然损失，将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以内，同时为每个人提供足够的健康、营养食品。
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