米尔斯海默：俄乌危机还看不到头，双方都不会赢

美国芝加哥大学教授约翰·米尔斯海默是进攻性现实主义理论代表人物。俄乌冲突爆发以来，他六年前的演讲“为什么乌克兰危机错在西方”在视频网站上已突破2500万全球观看量。

John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago professor, is a leading scholar of the so-called realism theory of international relations, believing that a nation must make itself powerful to survive. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, his 2005 lecture “Why is Ukraine the West's Fault?” has been viewed more than 25 million times on YouTube.

在与主持人田薇的最新采访中，米尔斯海默指出西方主流媒体并不认可他的理论。他认为，美国在西半球奉行的行为准则和俄罗斯对乌克兰的态度基本相同，即其临近国家无权自主制定外交政策，这一点通过“古巴导弹危机”就能看出。

In the latest interview with Tian Wei, he noted that the Western mainstream media dismisses his theory that the West is also to blame for backing Russia into a corner with NATO expansion. Mearsheimer believes that U.S. holds the same basic principle in the Western Hemisphere as Russia does with Ukraine, namely that its neighboring countries do not have the right to make their own foreign policy, as evidenced by the "Cuban Missile Crisis ".

米尔斯海默相信俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上绝对不会让步，因为乌克兰要成为北约的一部分在俄罗斯看来是对俄罗斯的“生存威胁”。普京早在2008年4月就一直阐明这一原则，之后事态的演变也一直符合这一逻辑。对于认为北约在乌克兰的存在不会威胁到俄罗斯的人，米尔斯海默表示，他们怎么想并不重要。“唯一重要的是普京怎么想。如果普京和他的将军们认为那是一种生存威胁，我们就应该谨慎对待这件事。因为他有一万件核武器啊。”

Ukraine's becoming part of NATO is seen by Russia as an "existential threat", a principle announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin since April 2008, according to Mearsheimer, and events that have unfolded since then proves that Russia will never give in on the Ukraine issue. For those who argue that NATO's presence in Ukraine does not threaten Russia's survival, Mearsheimer's response is that it doesn't matter what they think. "The only thing that matters is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And if Putin and his lieutenants think it's an existential threat, we ought to be very careful in dealing with him, because he has 10,000 of nuclear weapons. "

就俄乌冲突的前景而言，米尔斯海默认为，短期内和平很难实现。一方面, 美国想要在乌克兰境内看到俄罗斯战败，并完全封锁俄罗斯经济。俄罗斯方面也绝不会让步。如此僵持之下，西方有不少分析家预测这场战争将持续数年。米尔斯海默希望未来会有一个转折点出现，但就目前情况而言，他“无法想象俄乌冲突会有任何好的结局。”

Regarding the prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Mearsheimer believes that peace will not be achieved in the short term, pointing out that on one hand the United States is determined to see Russia’s defeat in Ukraine and a complete blockade of the Russian economy, and on the other hand Russia cannot afford to lose. With such a stalemate, Mearsheimer says many analysts in the West predict that the war will last for years. The hope is that some turning point unforeseen will change things around in the future, but as things stand now “I cannot tell you a happy story about how this end,” says Mearsheimer.

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