同异｜“亚洲特色”北约组织：不受欢迎
We've established that NATO is coming to Asia. The question is, how would Asia welcome it?
我们已经确定北约正在往亚洲扩张。问题是，亚洲欢迎它么？
China won't welcome it. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in mid-May that "China is opposed to some forces using the Ukraine crisis as an excuse to justify NATO's further expansion into the Asia-Pacific region" and that "the attempt to build an Asia-Pacific version of NATO will only do serious harm to regional security."
中国不欢迎。中国外交部部长王毅在五月中旬曾说：“中国反对一些势力以乌克兰危机为由，鼓吹北约进一步向亚太拓展。试图打造‘亚太版北约’只会给地区安全带来严重伤害。”
As of now, the most "receptive" countries are South Korea and Japan. As we talked about in the last video, South Korea is the first Asian country to join NATO's cyber defense center. Japan will attend the NATO summit in June. "We should keep in mind that NATO is led by the United States, that is now pressuring South Korea and Japan to basically and effectively militarily merge," said Benjamin Norton, Founder and Editor of Multipolarista.
截至目前，最“接受”北约的国家是韩国和日本。正如我们在上一个视频中谈到的，韩国是第一个加入北约网络防御中心的亚洲国家。日本将于6月参加北约峰会。独立调查网站Multipolarista创始人及总编辑本杰明·诺顿说：“我们应该认清，北约是由美国领导的。美国实际上正在迫使韩国和日本在军事上合并。”
I'm emphasizing it again: We should keep in mind that NATO is led by the United States. A security pact, under Washington's umbrella, is what's happening here.
我也强调一遍：我们应该记住，北约是由美国领导的。而这一安全模式，即由华盛顿提供保护伞的模式，正在亚洲萌芽。
And it's not limited to these two countries. During this year's U.S.-ASEAN Summit, the U.S. made commitments to deploy a Coast Guard vessel to the region to counter "China's illegal fishing." And U.S. President Joe Biden nominated the chief of staff on his National Security Council to become the next ambassador to ASEAN.
这不仅限于日韩两国。在今年的美国-东盟峰会上，美国承诺将向该地区部署一艘海岸警卫队船只，用来打击“中国的非法捕捞”。美国总统乔·拜登提名国家安全委员会的幕僚长为下一任美国驻东盟大使。
If America's goal is to encroach China in Asia, the only way to do so would be through its security ties. China is the largest trading partner for South Korea and Japan, more than $600 billion in combined trade volume. It has a more than $500 billion trade volume with ASEAN as well. Biden promised a $150 million assistant package for ASEAN during the summit. China pledged $1.5 billion to them last November. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership stands in full-force now. America's trade pact for the region is either dead in the water or in the infant stage. China has been successful when it comes to fostering economic ties with the region.
如果美国的目的是在亚洲遏制中国，那么实现这一目标的唯一途径就是籍由与美国的安全合作。中国是韩国和日本最大的贸易伙伴，贸易总额超过6000亿美元。中国与东盟的贸易额也超过5000亿美元。拜登在峰会期间承诺为东盟提供1.5亿美元的援助。而中国去年11月承诺向东盟提供15亿美元的援助。区域全面经济伙伴关系协定现已全面生效。但美国针对亚洲的贸易协定要么已胎死腹中，要么才处于起步阶段。中国在与地区建立经济关系方面很成功。
Sourabh Gupta, resident senior fellow with the Institute for China-America Studies, said in an interview that "Fundamentally for them (Southeast Asian countries), the most important priority is development. These are all developing countries, which still have many years, some still decades, to get to being an advanced country. And so while there are territorial issues which need to be dealt with in the South China Sea, the fundamental overriding interest and priority is development."
中美研究中心常驻高级研究员索尔巴·古普塔认为：“从根本上说，对于他们（东南亚国家）来说，最重要的优先事项是经济发展。这些都是发展中国家，还有很多年，有的甚至要几十年，才能成为发达国家。因此，虽然南海存在的领土争议需要解决，但最根本的利益和优先事项是经济发展。”
The same can be said for the developed countries. Both South Korea and Japan had negative GDP growth rates in 2020. South Korea had 4.0 percent growth in 2021 and Japan had 1.7 percent. China had 2.3 and 8.1 percent in these two years respectively.
其实发达国家也是一样的。2020年韩国和日本GDP均出现负增长。2021年，韩国经济增长4%，日本增长1.7%。而中国在这两年经济分别增长2.3%和8.1%。
It's the classic dichotomy between the security with the U.S. and business with China. Asian countries don't like to choose between these two. It's an impossible choice for them. Having NATO shoved down their throat is not going to be a popular move for Asian countries.
这是典型的二分法：与美国建构安全关系，与中国建构经济关系。亚洲国家不喜欢这样二选一的局面。对他们来说，做这一选择近乎是一个不可能完成的任务。强迫亚洲国家接受北约不会是一个受欢迎的举动。
