就实论事 | 疫情的代价

Hi, I am Einar Tangen. And this is Reality Check.

大家好，我是艾那·唐恩。欢迎收看《就实论事》。

Today we are going to take a look at where the costs of COVID-19 stand today and what we can expect tomorrow.

今天，我们将审视新冠肺炎疫情从暴发至今造成的代价，以及未来将如何发展。

Most people are aware of the 600 million plus people who have had COVID-19, the 6.5 million who have died from it. The trillions of dollars spent by nations trying to prevent their economies from collapsing on treatment, on testing, on vaccinations. 

众所周知，有6亿多人感染过新冠肺炎，其中650万人因此丧命。各国斥资数万亿美元，努力防止经济崩溃，并持续投入于治疗、检测和疫苗接种。

But most are not aware that 6 to 8 times the number who have died have experienced, or are continuing to experience long COVID.

但大多数人不知道超过死亡人数6至8倍的人群经历过或正在承受新冠后遗症或“长新冠”。

Spending on healthcare has increased by 220 billion dollars. Spending on mental health alone has increased by 8%, and that's just in the United States.

医疗费用支出增加了2200亿美元，仅在心理健康方面的支出就增加了8%，而这仅仅是在美国。

For example: 

比如说：

In 2019, someone born in the United States had a life expectancy of 79 years. Today their life expectancy is 76.1 years. This does not include those who survive only to be debilitated by long COVID.

2019年，美国人均预期寿命为79岁。如今，美国人均预期寿命为76.1岁。这还不包括那些长期受新冠后遗症折磨的幸存者。

So, what is long COVID？

那么，什么是“长新冠”？

According to the U.S. Mayo Clinic, there are many symptoms, but the main ones are: fatigue, headaches, coughing; joint, muscle, and chest pain; shortness of breath or difficulty breathing; dizziness when attempting to stand; memory, concentration, sleep problems; loss of smell, taste; depression, anxiety; organ damage and decreased life expectancy.

根据美国梅奥诊所的定义,“长新冠”包括许多症状,但主要有疲劳、头痛、咳嗽；关节、肌肉和胸部疼痛；气短或呼吸困难；试图站立时头晕；记忆、注意力和睡眠问题；嗅觉和味觉丧失；抑郁和焦虑；器官损伤和预期寿命缩短。

Imagine not having the energy to wash your hair, having a constant headache, being unable to work, being constantly depressed and knowing your chances of dying earlier have increased. 

试想一下，倘若你没有力气洗头，头痛不止。无法工作，持续抑郁，并且认识到自己提前死亡的几率增加。

Unfortunately, vaccines which effectively decrease your chances of dying of COVID, only decrease your chances of getting long COVID slightly.

遗憾的是，虽然疫苗能有效降低新冠肺炎死亡率，但只能略微降低“长新冠”的患病几率。

Less than three years into the pandemic, we still don't have all the answers, but the future does not look bright. As we speak, impatience and politics are threatening rational and needed scientific policies. 

疫情暴发已接近三年，我们依然没有找到所有问题的答案，未来看起来并不光明。此时此刻，厌烦情绪和政治因素使得理性的声音和必要的科学防疫政策遭遇挑战。

Keep in mind, no amount of money will bring you back from the dead. Those who say, the economic effects of COVID-19 are worse than death, obviously haven't experienced long COVID. Those that think, wishfully, that COVID (Pandemic) is over, like Joe Biden, obviously don't understand that the real damage from COVID, is yet to come. 

但请记住，再多的钱都无法让你起死回生。有人说防疫造成的经济影响比死亡更可怕，这些人显然没有经历过“长新冠”。那些一厢情愿地认为疫情已经结束的人，比如乔·拜登，显然不明白新冠肺炎的真正伤害要过段时间才会显现。

So what are the real costs of COVID？

那么，疫情的成本到底是什么？

Socially the cost is:

疫情的社会成本包括：

the loss of loved ones; the cost and stress of having to care for those with long COVID; mental health issues; loss of faith in the governments that failed you; a loss of hope, as people see their futures like their life expectancy declining. Increased social and political divisions, as people seek to blame others for their problems.

失去挚爱的人；“长新冠”患者的治疗费用和陪护压力；心理健康问题；对防疫不力的政府失去信心；人们因预期寿命缩短等原因对未来失去希望。社会和政治分裂加剧，因为人们试图将自己的问题归咎于他人。

The economic costs:

疫情的经济成本：

Trillions in stimulus funds that fanned the current stagflation; trillions in debt; 200 billion in lost wages; 220 billion in additional health care costs in the U.S. alone; an oncoming world recession.

数万亿美元的经济刺激资金助长了当下的滞胀现象；数万亿美元的债务；2000亿美元的工资损失；仅仅在美国，就增加了2200亿的医疗保健费用；即将到来的全球经济衰退。

The political costs:

疫情的政治成本：

The failure to spend 50 billion to vaccinate the entire world has resulted in: millions of needless deaths, trillions in stimulus funding, trillions in mounting debts, a pandemic that has divided nations and the world.

500亿美元的全球新冠疫苗接种计划无果而终，导致了数以百万计不必要的死亡，数万亿美元的经济刺激资金，数万亿美元的债务，一场使国家和世界陷入分裂的大流行病。

Interestingly, those who mishandled their responses to COVID, and suffered the most for it, are now the most vocal about having others make their mistakes.

有意思的是，那些因为抗疫不力并饱受其害的人现在极力鼓吹，想让别人重蹈覆辙。

While 1,500 people a day are dying from COVID-19, while more than half the world is waiting for their first vaccine shot, while new COVID variants continue to evolve, while poorly thought out stimulus packages continue to accrue interest. While personal and national debt rises, the leaders, who failed their people, talk about the pandemic being "over," or about "getting on with it."

每天有1500人死于新冠肺炎，而世界上一半以上的人还在等待他们的第一剂疫苗。同时，新冠肺炎病毒还在不断变异。考虑不周的经济刺激计划则持续催生债务利息。在个人和国家债务上升的同时，那些让他们的人民失望的领导人妄言疫情已经结束或鼓吹“共存论”。

Meanwhile the countries that put science before politics and made short term sacrifices necessary to save their people and economies, are criticized.

与此同时，有些国家将科学置于政治之上，选择牺牲短期发展，从而保障人民生命安全和经济长久发展，这些国家反倒遭受了批评。

So, the next time you think, wouldn't it be nice to return to normal, be aware that that normal is gone, the new normal is about the social, economic, and political survival of people and countries. 

因此，当你再次认为“回归常态不是很好吗”的时候，请注意，那种旧常态已经不复存在。新常态下，防疫事关人民安危，事关国家的社会、经济和政治发展。

Unless you believe that rolling the dice on getting long COVID is worth it. That gratifying your desires is more important than the responsibilities to your family, friends, community, nation and world. That adopting an "I don't care anymore" attitude, means you have taken control of your life. I sincerely hope you don't regret your choices.

如果你认为“长新冠”“轮盘赌”值得一玩，个人欲望比你对家庭、朋友、社区、国家和世界的责任更重要，采取“漠不关心”的态度，认为一切尽在自己的掌控之中，我真心希望你不会后悔自己的选择。

COVID is not over, hundreds of millions worldwide will die, or be debilitated. Desire and politics are not a match for science and facts.

疫情尚未结束，全世界数以亿计的人恐将死亡或遭受后遗症折磨。欲望与政治是无法和科学与事实相提并论的。

Be safe, not sorry. In the meantime, all the best to you and those you care about.

要安全，不要遗憾。同时，祝愿你和你关心的人平安健康！

推荐阅读：

就实论事｜加息无度——偏方怎能愈顽疾

就实论事 | 上合峰会：“就实论事”型国际关系时代的到来

就实论事 | 特拉斯扬言强硬对华，行得通么？