就实论事 | 疫情会让中国成为全球供应链的风险点吗？

Hello, I am Ding Heng. And this is Reality Check. China is causing uncertainty for global supply chains, even posing a threat. This used to be how some Western media warned about China’s dynamic zero-COVID policy. After China bid farewell to stringent COVID restrictions, those same media have once again embraced such a narrative, citing temporary low activities in the country’s factories and ports in late 2022 amid a surge of COVID-19 cases.

大家好，我是丁亨。欢迎收看这一期《就实论事》。中国在加剧全球供应链不确定性，甚至构成全球供应链的风险点。部分西方媒体曾针对中国的“动态清零”政策做出如此警告。而就在中国优化疫情防控措施后，同样是这批媒体，依旧不改其腔调，又以2022年底新冠病毒感染病例数激增导致工厂和港口运行效率暂时性降低唱衰中国。

But have they missed something?

但真的是这样吗？

During China’s first wave of COVID-19 in early 2020, some Western media also questioned China’s reliability in supplying products and components to global consumers and businesses. However, as economic activities went back to normal after the virus was effectively contained, China ended up being a stable supplier when the coronavirus wreaked havoc across the globe. China’s exports reached 17.93 trillion yuan (about $2.77 trillion) in 2020 and 21.73 trillion yuan (about $3.42 trillion) in 2021.

在2020年初中国经历第一波疫情冲击时，一些西方媒体也曾质疑中国能否为全球消费者和企业提供稳定的产品和零部件。后来中国疫情得到有效控制，经济活动恢复正常，在全球疫情肆虐的背景下，中国成为全球可靠的商品供应国。2020年中国出口额达到17.93万亿元人民币（约合2.77万亿美元），2021年达到21.73万亿元人民币（约合3.42万亿美元）。

Many things could have changed that period, but Chinese economy’s resilience has remained the same.

疫情这段时间改变了很多，却没有动摇中国经济的韧性。

There are signs that factory activity in the country is quickly recovering, just like how it did in 2020. Since mid-December 2022, production has resumed in more than 90 percent of the manufacturing companies in the northern province of Shanxi. In the southern city of Guangzhou, orders on the truck-hailing platform Huolala surged by more than 50 percent month on month in the first week of December. In the central city of Luoyang, Henan Province, normal production levels have been ensured in hundreds of factories during the week-long Chinese New Year holiday.

有迹象表明，中国的工业活动正在迅速恢复，就像2020年时那样。自2022年12月中旬以来，山西省90%以上的制造业企业已复工复产。在南方城市广州，12月首周，货车租赁平台货拉拉的订单环比增长50%以上。在河南省中部城市洛阳，数百家工厂在春节黄金周保持了正常生产水平。

As business people and haulers are able to move around more freely under China’s optimized COVID policy, we have every reason to be optimistic that China will continue to be a reliable supplier. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said earlier this month that China’s reopening is very positive in terms of making sure the supply chains operate more efficiently and effectively.

中国优化疫情防控措施后，商务出行和物流运输更加自由畅通。我们完全有理由相信，中国的商品供应将保持稳定。经合组织秘书长马蒂亚斯·科曼在本月早些时候曾表示，中国重新开放非常有助于确保供应链高效运转。

Instead of describing China as a risk, probably we need to think about how much stability China has contributed to global supply chains during the pandemic. The Europe-China rail link is a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative. At a time when the pandemic caused severe disruptions to maritime shipping and air freight, this rail link served as a trade artery between China and Europe. And this is only one of the many examples. In 2022, China's total goods imports and exports surged 7.7 percent year-on-year to 42.07 trillion yuan (about $6.26 trillion), hitting new heights.

与其把中国说成是风险点，不如想想中国在疫情期间为稳定全球供应链做了多大的贡献。中欧班列是“一带一路”倡议的旗舰项目。疫情背景下，海运空运严重受阻，中欧班列成为稳定中欧贸易的生命线。类似的例子不胜枚举。2022年，中国货物贸易进出口总额同比增长7.7%，达到42.07万亿元人民币（约合6.26万亿美元），再创历史新高。

And China’s attractiveness as a manufacturing hub remains unbeatable.

作为全球制造业中心，中国依然具有无与伦比的吸引力。

China boasts a skilled labor force. In other Asian countries, a kitchenware manufacturer can’t efficiently train workers in only a couple of months. By comparison, it takes five to eight days only in China, we’ve learned recently in an article in the New York Times.

中国有着高素质的劳动力队伍。在亚洲其他国家，一家厨具制造商在几个月内都难以完成工人培训。相比之下，在中国只需要五到八天的培训时间。最近《纽约时报》的一篇文章对此做了报道。

Many companies are also unwilling to lose some of the benefits - such as convenience and reduced cost - that they get from China’s industrial clusters, where component suppliers, manufacturers, and service providers in a particular industry concentrate in a specific area. Because of government policy support, there are more than a hundred such clusters in China today.

许多公司也不愿意脱离中国的产业集群，希望继续享受营商便利和成本压降等好处。特定行业的零部件供应商、制造商和服务提供商集中分布在这些产业集群中。在中国政府的大力支持下，如今中国有一百多个这样的产业集群。

So, it’s not really surprising when a recent survey by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, the country’s main foreign trade promotion agency, showed that nearly 90 percent of the foreign-invested businesses in China plan to maintain their industrial chains in the country.

因此，中国国际贸易促进委员会—中国主要的对外贸易促进机构近期的一项调查结果就不足为奇了，结果显示近90%的在华外资企业计划维持在华产业链。

So, is China a risk for global supply chains? The answer is obvious, isn’t it?

那么，中国会成为全球供应链的风险点吗？答案已经很清楚了，不是吗？

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