决策者｜中国经济韧性提振全球增长信心

Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for influential leaders to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Lu Kang is the ambassador of the People's Republic of China to the Republic of Indonesia. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

编者按：决策者是一个全球平台，供决策者分享他们对影响当今世界之事件的见解。陆慷是中华人民共和国驻印度尼西亚共和国的大使。文章仅代表作者的观点，而非本台观点。

China's economy: rapid and strong development

中国经济：快速强劲发展

The world is undergoing once-in-a-century changes and the COVID-19 pandemic amid a turbulent geopolitical situation, as well as serious disruptions to supply chains and surging inflation rates. The world economy is struggling with sluggish growth. According to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects, the global economy is projected to rise by 1.7 percent in 2023 and 2.7 percent in 2024. Forecasts for 2023 are revised down for 95 percent of advanced economies and nearly 70 percent of emerging markets and developing economies. 

世界正在经历百年未有之大变局：动荡的地缘政治局势与新冠疫情相互叠加，全球供应链严重紊乱，通货膨胀率飙升。世界经济正在低速增长通道中艰难前行。世界银行最新发布的《全球经济展望》预计2023年全球经济将增长1.7%，2024年将增长2.7%。95%的发达经济体和近70%的新兴市场和发展中经济体的2023年增速预期均被下调。

Meanwhile, there remain bright spots in an increasingly uncertain world economic outlook. The new Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook forecasts that the United States and Europe are slowing sharply, and the major Asian emerging-market economies are expected to account for close to three-quarters of global GDP growth in 2023, which will be the main engine of global growth in 2023 and 2024. According to the World Bank, economic growth in Asia-Pacific will rise to 4.3 percent in 2023 and 4.9 percent in 2024. 

虽然世界经济前景愈发不明朗，但仍有亮点。经合组织最新发布的经济展望报告预测，虽然美国和欧洲经济增速将大幅放缓，但亚洲主要新兴市场经济体预计将在2023年贡献近四分之三的全球GDP增长，成为2023年和2024年全球增长的重要引擎。根据世界银行的报告，亚太地区的经济增速将在2023年和2024年分别达到4.3%和4.9%。

In particular, as the second largest economy and the biggest developing country, the World Bank predicts that China's economic growth is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2023 and 5.0 percent in 2024. The United Nations explained the prediction in its World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023, which is on account of the Chinese Government optimizing COVID-19 prevention policies and adopting more favorable economic measures, such as boosting domestic consumer demand. China's economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2023, which will drive regional economic growth. The international community is looking to a stable and growing Chinese economy support the global recovery.

其中，世界银行预测，作为全球第二大经济体和最大的发展中国家，中国的经济增速有望在2023年达到4.3%，2024年达到5.0%。联合国在《2023年世界经济形势与展望》中对这一预测做出解释，原因包括中国政府优化疫情防控政策，并出台一系列稳增长措施，比如提振内需消费。预计2023年中国经济将加速增长，从而带动区域经济增长。国际社会期待回稳向上的中国经济给世界经济复苏注入更多动能。

China's economy: steady and sustainable growth

中国经济：平稳持续增长

As the largest developing country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, China has managed its own development in the past decade, while undertaking various risks and challenges, so as to gain the edge and embrace the future. Despite some adverse factors, China maintains positive economic growth, with an average annual rate of 4.5 percent over the past three years. The growth rate is not low, though understandably lower than before. The economic aggregate and per capita GDP continue to rise.

作为拥有14亿多人口的最大发展中国家，中国在过去十年始终谋求自身发展，同时应对各种风险挑战，赢得优势、拥抱未来。尽管存在一些不利因素，但中国经济仍然保持正增长。在过去三年里，中国经济年均增长4.5%，可见增速并不低。虽然经济增速不及往年，但背后的原因可以理解。况且，中国经济总量和人均GDP仍然连上新台阶。

In 2022, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was held. The congress has drawn up a grand blueprint for China's development in the coming five years and beyond. Last December, China held the annual Central Economic Work Conference to make plans for 2023. The country will adhere to progress while maintaining stability, to support proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies. China will keep overall stability in prices and employment.

2022年，中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会顺利召开。大会为中国未来五年及更长时期的发展规划了宏伟蓝图。去年12月，中国召开年度中央经济工作会议，部署2023年经济工作。中国将坚持稳中求进，实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，同时保持物价和就业总体稳定。

China is fostering a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations mutually reinforcing, in order to expand internal consumption; improve industrial systems; and re-balance the economy. A well-functioned domestic circulation relies on strengthening the international division of labor and expanding foreign trade and utilizing foreign investment. 

中国正在构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，扩大内需，完善产业体系，推动经济实现再平衡。顺畅的国内循环需要加强国际分工和合作，扩大对外贸易和利用外资。

Opening-up, as China's basic state policy, is a catalyst of reform and development. China will continue to open-up to the outside world, which would usher in greater opportunities for global development.

对外开放是中国的基本国策，是改革与发展的“催化剂”。中国将继续扩大对外开放，为全球发展带来更大机遇。

China-Indonesia economic cooperation: promising prospects

中国-印尼经贸合作前景广阔

As the largest economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Indonesia's economy continues to recover. According to the OECD, favorable commodity prices and still buoyant capital inflows are helping Indonesia to resist strong global headwinds. Indonesia's GDP growth is projected to average around 5 percent in 2023 and strengthen slightly in 2024. 

作为东盟第一大经济体，印尼经济持续复苏。据经合组织称，商品价格维持高位和外资持续涌入帮助印尼成功抵御全球经济下行压力。预计2023年印尼GDP平均增速约为5%，2024年有望更上层楼。

China and Indonesia, both major developing countries and emerging economies, are crucial economic and trade partners, with strong economic complementarity and deep integration of industrial and supply chains. The bilateral trade volume in 2022 amounted to $149 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8 percent. China remains Indonesia's largest trading partner, source of import and export markets. 

中国和印尼同为发展中大国和新兴经济体，互为重要经贸伙伴，两国经济互补性强，产业链供应链深度融合。2022年两国双边贸易额达1490亿美元，同比增长19.8%。中国仍是印尼最大的贸易伙伴、最大的出口市场和进口来源国。

In meeting Indonesia's needs for industrialization, infrastructure, industrial upgrading and digital economy, we have witnessed China's investment in the country. China has been among the top three foreign investors in Indonesia for many years succesively. Indonesia has long been one of the top 10 overseas markets for Chinese enterprises undertaking project contracting. 

中国在印尼的投资我们有目共睹，充分满足印尼对工业化、基础设施、产业升级和数字经济建设的需求。中国连续多年位居印尼前三大外资来源国之列。多年来，印尼一直是中国企业海外工程承包前十大市场之一。

On January 2, 2023, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) entered into force for Indonesia. Once the agreement is effective, the tariffs on many commodities will be exempted, bringing greater benefits for foreign trade companies. The RCEP goes beyond tariff reductions. It brings certainty and openness to trade services, standards, investment, e-commerce, movement of natural persons, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, and technical cooperation. The RCEP will provide confidence to stakeholders, especially enterprises, and inject new impetus into regional economic integration and regional and global economic growth.

2023年1月2日，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）对印尼正式生效。协议生效后，许多商品的关税将被免除，为外贸企业带来重大利好。RCEP不仅涉及关税减免，还在贸易服务、标准、投资、电子商务、自然人流动、卫生和植物检疫规则以及技术合作方面提供了确定性和开放性。RCEP将为利益相关者，特别是企业，带来更大的动力和决心，并为区域经济一体化以及区域和全球经济增长注入新动力。

The year 2023 marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and the proposal of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" by President Xi Jinping in Indonesia. Over the years, the Belt and Road Initiative has synergized Indonesia's Global Maritime Fulcrum. Bilateral economic and trade cooperation has been enhanced. Flagship projects such as the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Corridor and "Two Countries, Twin Parks" will boost industrial development in both countries and promote deeper integration of supply and industrial chains. 

2023年是中国-印尼全面战略伙伴关系建立10周年，也是习近平主席在印尼提出“21世纪海上丝绸之路”10周年。这些年来，“一带一路”倡议与印尼“全球海洋支点”构想深入对接，双边经贸合作不断加强。雅万高铁、区域综合经济走廊和“两国双园”等旗舰项目将助推两国产业发展，促进两国供应链和产业链深度融合。

The two growing economies will expand economic and trade cooperation, to promote domestic industrial development, elevate respective stand in the global industrial chain, mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 and play larger roles in the global recovery.

作为两大新兴经济体，中国和印尼将继续扩大经贸合作，促进国内产业发展，提升各自在全球产业链中的地位，最大限度减少疫情的负面影响，并在世界经济复苏中发挥更大作用。

推荐阅读：