Editor's note: CGTN's First Voice provides instant commentary on breaking stories. The video format of the column brings in dialogues with experts from across the world to offer a nuanced take on contemporary issues and events of global relevance. 编者按：《先声夺人》针对突发新闻发表即时评论，厘清新闻脉络，解读背后深意，以细致入微的视角分析全球时事。U.S. President Joe Biden's administration plans to send $500 million worth of weapons to China's Taiwan region, using a fast-track authority that has been used more than 35 times for Ukraine. CGTN's First Voice, collaborating with Special Commentator Danny Haiphong, does an interview with Brian Berletic, a former U.S. marine and geopolitical analyst based in Bangkok, Thailand. The views expressed in the video are his own and not necessarily those of CGTN. He is the host of the New Atlas.美国拜登政府计划使用紧急授权，向台湾提供价值5亿美元的武器援助。美国政府曾利用此紧急授权向乌克兰提供超过35次援助。CGTN《先声夺人》特别评论员丹尼 · 海防采访了驻泰国曼谷的前美国海军陆战队员、地缘政治分析师布莱恩·贝莱蒂奇。他也是新阿特拉斯节目主持人。Danny Haiphong: So, that’s what is happening: more arms to Taiwan, supposedly, because I know a lot of these arms get backlogged. 丹尼·海防：所以目前的状况是这样，（美国）计划向台湾提供更多的武器援助，但实际之前美国承诺的输台武器很多还仍未兑现。Brian Berletic: This is the United States trying to consolidate its position ahead of this planned conflict that they want to provoke with China. We’ve talked about many times, regarding the window of opportunity that the United States believes that it has between 2025 and 2027, when they can wage some sort of military conflict with China and have some sort of successful outcome. Even though when you read what these war planners are saying about the outcome, it really doesn’t look like a victory. I guess its better than, in their minds, just allowing China to irreversibly surpass them. They think at least this way we have a shot at, perhaps, knocking China down a peg. 布莱恩·贝莱蒂奇：美国正有预谋地试图挑起与中国的冲突，而在冲突爆发前美国需要强化其(在中国周边的)军事实力。我们已经讨论过很多次，美国认为，2025年到2027年对于美国而言是一个窗口期，此间它极有可能向中国挑起军事冲突，并取得某种“胜利成果”。然而，当你听到他们这番言辞时，会发现这些“战争谋划者”口中的“成果”很难说是真正的胜利。我猜想，可能他们认为挑起冲突总比眼睁睁看着中国不可逆地超越美国要好。他们认为，至少这样一来，他们或许能借机打压中国。What's disturbing about the Presidential drawdown authority used for Ukraine which is taking weapons out of the existing U.S. stockpiles is that they are doing this for the Taiwan region. So, they are getting ahead of the curve, so to speak. They have said in their policy papers we cannot afford any sort of delay once some sort of conflict is provoked. We have to get involved directly and immediately. 以用于乌克兰的总统紧急授权对台军援之所以令人不安，是因为他们正将这一从美国现有的武器库提供军援的方式平移至台湾地区。因此可以说美国是在提前做战争准备。美国的相关政策文件中也明确过，一旦（台海）起了冲突，任何形式的拖延都是美方无法承受的，“我们必须立即直接介入”。Danny Haiphong: Then of course there has been a flurry of other developments. There’s a visit to South Korea. South Korea’s President coming out on the Taiwan question pretty firmly on the side of the United States. What do you think the significance of this is, given all that’s going on for NATO and the collective West?丹尼·海防：当然，还有一系列其他的事件。如美方到访韩国，还有韩国总统表态支持美国在台湾问题上的立场等。考虑到北约以及整个西方国家正在经历的一切，你认为这意味着什么？Brian Berletic: You mentioned South Korea, and I would like to throw in the Philippines as well. I saw the Secretary of Foreign Affairs in Washington at the CSIS event recently. And maybe he is saying one thing because he is in Washington and if he were in Beijing he would be saying slightly more balanced. [In Washington he said] we need the United States to uphold international law, the United States is part of our future. China is offering trade and investment and infrastructure when the Secretary of Foreign Affairs was talking to the U.S., and it was entirely military, and it is military relationship went antagonized the Philippines' largest economic partner, which makes absolutely no sense.布莱恩·贝莱蒂奇：你提到了韩国，我也想提一下菲律宾。我注意到菲律宾外长近期在出席华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心(CSIS) 活动时的言论。可能由于他身在华盛顿，所以他有了这样的表态，如果他身处北京，可能他的观点会更平衡一些。（他在华盛顿时提到）“我们需要美国来维护国际法”，“菲律宾的未来部分仰仗于美国”。当菲律宾外长与美国同侪进行对话时，中国正（与菲律宾）进行贸易、投资和基础设施等方面的合作。但菲美之间的对话却只聚焦于军事，这会恶化菲律宾与其最大的经济伙伴（中国）的关系。这并非明智之举。It's more or less what is happening with South Korea and to a certain extent Japan. The whole point of having intercontinental ballistic missiles so they're only there to provoke DPRK, to create a pretext to keep or even expand the U.S. military presence there, which ultimately is there to contain China. This is how the U.S. has selected to continue its relationship with the Asian region, and essentially it is an occupying military force coercing governments to act against their own best interests.这或多或少也是韩国和日本正在面临的状况。洲际弹道导弹存在的意义就在于激怒朝鲜，制造借口来维持甚至扩大美国在日韩的军事存在，最终目的是遏制中国。这就是美国选择的所谓与亚洲地区维系关系的方式，其本质上是一种“军事占领”，迫使他国政府违背本国利益（去迎合美国的战略需求）。推荐阅读：先声夺人丨美债寻上线 党争无下限 国家信用破底线 先声夺人 | 美元霸权或将崩溃