Predictions for Shanghai’s 16 Districts Zero-COVID Timeline
From April 18 to April 21, the number of infections in Shanghai dropped for four consecutive days. Daily recovered patients on these days were also more than daily new cases. It seems that the number of daily new cases has reached its peak on April 13.
Now the “zero-COVID” strategy usually refers to zero community transmission. No matter what you think about the policy, it is key to having our normal life back. Among the 16 districts in Shanghai, which district will be the first to achieve the “zero-COVID”? When will that be? We’ve made a prediction based on the data.
Jinshan, Fengxian, Chongming, Qingpu, Songjiang and Jiading
Jinshan, Fengxian and Chongming District could be first to eliminate COVID.
Jinshan is the only district with less than 1,000 total infections in April. The number of new infections in the past 4 days has only been in single or double digits. If everything goes well, it will be the first to achieve zero-COVID. In Fengxian District and Chongming District, the number of infections in April is around 2,000, and the daily confirmed cases were all less than 100 in the past 11 days. Zero-COVID is around the corner.
Qingpu, Songjiang and Jiading District could have a chance to achieve zero community transmission in about 7 days.
The latest daily confirmed cases were 300-700 people in these three districts except Songjiang on April 22. Due to their large population, the total number of infections in the three days accounts for less than 0.1% of the population, which is at a low level.
Baoshan, Putuo, Yangpu, Minhang, Changning, Hongkou and Jing'an
Baoshan, Putuo and Yangpu District could have zero community transmission in about 10 days.
Previously, the infection rates have been unstable. The current daily rate of 500-900 could be the start of a down-tick in cases.
It could still take some time for Minhang, Changning, Hongkou and Jing'an District to eliminate COVID.
In these four districts, the total number of infections in the past three days accounts for 0.3-0.4% of the total district's population. It might take about 15 days to achieve zero community transmission.
Pudong, Huangpu and Xuhui District might be the last three districts to achieve zero-COVID.
Although the number of daily infections in Pudong has dropped , from an average of more than 10,000 to 7,961 per day, it is not easy to make it zero due to its huge population. The number of new infections in Huangpu District has risen, reaching a peak of 3,000. The number of new infections in Xuhui District dropped to 550 on the 18th, but then it tripled on the 19th. For those who live in these three districts, stay strong!
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