《爱乐之城》若失意奥斯卡我们就发奖！
小编的话
小编又来搞（fa）事（fu）情（li）了！
相信我们英语环球的资深铁粉一定都知道，在学术界，我们刘彦老师是最会八卦的；在八卦界，刘老师是最有学识的！
今年的奥斯卡颁奖在即，我们特地请来刘老师，请他对“小金人”的归属做了预测，快来看看和你们心目中的获奖名单是否一致？
奥斯卡再过几天就到了，小伙伴们有没有激动不已呢？
说到激动，不由想起朋友曾经开过的玩笑：
每年奥斯卡那些获得最佳影片提名的电影，中国观众根本没机会在颁奖之前看到，所以你说激动个毛啊？
但是，今年不同了！所有提名影片中呼声最高、最有机会拿下最佳影片大奖的La La Land（《爱乐之城》）正在中国上映！加上Hacksaw Ridge（《血战钢锯岭》）和Arrival（《降临》）已经在中国上映过，今年咱们终于有参与感，可以名正言顺地指手画脚了！
那么，我就先来抛个砖，说说对主要奖项的预测。
最佳影片：La La Land
虽然有九部影片获得提名，但第一梯队（也就是真正有希望拿奖、而非纯粹陪跑的影片）只有三部：La La Land、Manchester by the Sea（《海边的曼彻斯特》）和Moonlight（《月光男孩》）。
La La Land在整个颁奖季一直处在绝对领跑的地位，我实在找不到它在奥斯卡失手的理由。影片本身拍得很好看，画面极其精致，歌舞也很抓人，Emma Stone和Ryan Gosling的表演都无懈可击，尤其是两人吵架那场戏。I would have paid good money just to see that! 更重要的是，这是一部关于追梦的电影。而颁奖典礼的本质就是：追梦不容易，追求艺术梦更是难上加难，因此我们要表扬自己，给自己鼓掌！
Damien Chazelle wrote the screenplay in 2010, but he did not find a studio willing to finance the production without changes to his design. Following the success of his 2014 film Whiplash, the project was picked up by Summit Entertainment. La La Land premiered at the Venice Film Festival on August 31, 2016, and was released in the United States on December 9, 2016. It has grossed $296 million worldwide against a production budget of $30 million.
剧本在2010年就完成了，电影到2016年才跟大家见面。所以说，追求艺术梦真是难于上青天！从一开始找不到人投资，到如今票房逆袭，La La Land绝对搔到了好莱坞的痒处，不获奖才怪！
As for Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight, well, the former might be too depressing for some Oscar voters, while the latter might be too gay. Don't forget that the vast majority of those voters are white old men, and taken as a whole, they are still a rather conservative group. I hate to point out the obvious. Why do you think Brokeback Mountain lost the Best Picture race back in the day? The voters largely remain the same this year, so...
最佳导演：Damien Chazelle
第一梯队三部影片的导演全部被提名，所以最后的得奖者也肯定在这三位当中诞生。（说实话，有点意外Mel Gibson获得了提名。虽然我也超爱看Hacksaw Ridge，可他在好莱坞的名声真的比较...）
Damien Chazelle的希望无疑是最大的。奥斯卡总体来说更喜欢奖励那些之前就有佳作的电影人，这样多少可以证明他们的优秀不是侥幸。Chazelle的上一部作品Whiplash（《爆裂鼓手》）两年前拿下了奥斯卡最佳男配角的奖项，还获得了最佳影片和最佳改编剧本的提名，但Chazelle本人空手而归，所以这次再有佳作，当然是给他补上嘉奖的不二时机。
While Barry Jenkins does a fantastic job with Moonlight, and I personally would have no problem with his winning the best director award, the undeniable fact is that he has only made two films so far, and for Oscar voters, that's just not going to cut it.
Kenneth Lonergan does have more films under his belt, but he is best known for his writing (Gangs of New York, Analyze This/That), not directing. As a director, Manchester by the Sea is his first major Oscar-worthy project, and that decreases his chances for sure. So all in all, I think Chazelle will take home the trophy.
最佳男主角：Casey Affleck
Casey Affleck在Manchester by the Sea里的表现让我恨不得跪了。他相当于在一部片子里演了两个完全不同的人：一个是没有发生惨剧前比较阳光的普通男人，一个是惨剧发生后再也不可能快乐起来的悲情汉子。没有太多的歇斯底里，也没有太多的夸张情绪，但他真的完美地演绎出了I can't beat it的精髓（这样说比较模糊，但我不想剧透）。
我不止一次听人说：Casey的演技比他哥好太多了吧！！！（In case you don't know，他哥是好莱坞巨星Ben Affleck。）
当然，这种感受是比较主观的，但Ben确实从来没得过奥斯卡最佳男主角奖项（提名也没有），倒是得过最佳影片和最佳剧本，这多少说明Ben的最强项不是演技。既然Ben没什么希望当影帝，那同样有才、知名度却根本不在一个档次的Casey拿奖，想必是最理想的结果。As I always say, positive brotherly rivalry is the best!
The only person who might stand in the way of Casey Affleck winning his first Oscar is Denzel Washington. He does a terrific job in Fences, but he's both the director and the male lead. The Oscar voters traditionally favor actors who are merely acting in their nominated films, so this might hurt Washington's chances.
Also, Washington's had two Oscars already. Remember how long Meryl Streep had to wait before she finally got her third Oscar? All things considered, I don't think this is Washington's year after all. Casey affleck for the win.
最佳女主角：Emma Stone
这个奖项的热门是Emma Stone和两位已经是奥斯卡影后的实力派演员：Meryl Streep和Natalie Portman。Meryl Streep已经是第20次提名，创造了历史，所以今年的任务已经完成。而且她这次也是凭借唱歌的角色获得提名，但参演的影片本身远远不及La La Land广受好评，所以基本上就是陪跑的命。Natalie Portman扮演的美国前第一夫人很有挑战性，但毕竟她摘得奥斯卡影后桂冠才没几年，那么快就再次胜出的几率不大。
奥斯卡在最佳女主角这个类别里一向喜欢奖励年轻的演技派（比如Jennifer Lawrence和Natalie Portman），但同时又不喜欢在短期内屡屡奖励同一人（毕竟还年轻，不能让你飞上天），所以今年Emma Stone获奖几乎是板上钉钉。
And personally, I hope Emma Stone wins too. I have loved her in almost everything I've watched her in. Superbad, Easy A, Crazy Stupid Love, The Help, The Amazing Spider-Man, Birdman and La La Land. She's truly one of the best actresses of her generation.
最佳男配角：Mahershala Ali
他只出现在Moonlight前三分之一的剧情里，但带给我的震撼让我久久不能忘怀。他在片中最后一次的亮相太惊艳，绝对是演技大爆发。其实，他演戏很多年了，中国观众对他也不陌生（除非你没看过《纸牌屋》），但因为名字难记也好，因为大家对配角就是不太上心也好（就说《纸牌屋》好了，你知道Underwood夫妇以外的角色是谁演的吗？能说得上一个名字吗？I don't think so.），总之Ali一直没有获得应有的recognition。
I'm so glad it's finally his chance to shine now. He deserves it. By the way, Ali also stars in Luke Cage, the critically acclaimed TV series adapted from the Marvel comic books. Give it a try if you have time.
最佳女配角：Viola Davis
这是最没有悬念的一个类别。Viola Davis的演技毋庸置疑，气场强大到令人窒息。说实话，她至今还没得过奥斯卡让我太惊讶了。这回的Fences，她其实完全可以参评最佳女主角奖项的。以女主角的戏份去评女配角，要是再拿不到，那奥斯卡可以洗洗睡了。我始终坚信，她不但这次会赢下最佳女配角，以后还一定会捧得最佳女主角的小金人。
By the way, Viola Davis has also done a lot of TV work. Apart from How to Get Away with Murder (for which she won an Emmy), you should also check out United States of Tara.
最后再附赠三个额外的看点：
1. Whether Jimmy Kimmel will be a good host. He's been considered "vanilla" by most critics, but I like him fine. I particularly look forward to his Matt Damon jokes. (In case you don't know, Kimmel had this faux feud with Damon, and the related videos went viral online back when "going viral" wasn't even a thing. Damon is one of the producers of Manchester by the Sea, and is close friends with both Ben and Casey Affleck, so he will definitely be at the Oscars. Can't wait for the Kimmel-Damon showdown!)
两人之间的恩怨可以剪出一部90分钟的大片了，我们今天仅选一例。这是艾美奖颁奖礼上的一幕：
https://v.qq.com/txp/iframe/player.html?vid=u0330e7vh2t&width=500&height=375&auto=0
2. How many stars will take the chance to say something unflattering about President Trump, and how Trump will fire back on Twitter.
相关阅读：梅姨怒怼特朗普 抖森致辞惹麻烦
3. The last image of the In Memoriam session. My bet is on a picture of the iconic mother/daughter pair - Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher.
妈妈 Debbie Reynolds 曾主演经典电影《雨中曲》，女儿 Carrie Fisher 则扮演过《星球大战》中的“莱娅公主”。两天之内，两人先后离世。
2月27号，快点到来吧！
重点来了
看完刘老师的奥斯卡全预测，你有不同意见吗？如果有，那恭喜你——获奖的机会来啦！
留言告诉我们你的预测，假如最终结果是你对了，刘老师错了，例如获得最佳影片的并不是刘老师看好的《爱乐之城》，那你就有机会获得英文原版书一本或英语环球独家定制的U盘一个。快拉上热爱电影的朋友，一起来参与吧~
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