【福利】AI来了，我们会失业吗？

小提示：KK 亲笔签名的《必然》一书，懂的人请进！

机器人、虚拟现实(VR)、增强现实(AR)、人工智能(AI)、自动驾驶……

正在上映的科幻电影《攻壳机动队》通过眼花缭乱的高科技让我们看到了未来世界的样子。

https://v.qq.com/txp/iframe/player.html?vid=w0023lgq947&width=500&height=375&auto=0

在《攻壳机动队》的世界里，机器人依托人工智能技术而拥有拟人化和高效的信息处理能力，可以从事不同的复杂工作。

同样以人工智能为主题的还有我们熟悉的《黑客帝国》、《终结者》等好莱坞大片。

在电影里，人工智能有时是摧毁人类的邪恶天网，有时又会成为帮助人们的善良机器人。

虽说以上都是科幻电影，但人工智能已经照进现实。

从1997年 IBM 的“深蓝”打败世界象棋大师，到去年横扫中日韩顶尖围棋国手的“阿尔法狗”，AI 真的来了。

什么是人工智能？

人工智能（Artificial Intelligence），英文缩写为AI。它是研究、开发用于模拟、延伸和扩展人的智能的理论、方法、技术及应用系统的一门新的技术科学。

Artificial Intelligence (also AI) : the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages.

AI 离我们有多远?

AI 就在我们身边。最常见的例子就是苹果手机的 Siri 语音功能。很多 iPhone  用户都喜欢有事没事调戏一下Ta。

还有现在各大厂商都在发力的无人驾驶汽车，它的核心技术就是人工智能。

通过摄像头以及各种雷达传感器收集信息，交由人工智能处理分析并做出相应的反应。

AI 会让我们失业吗？

人工智能的设计发展都是在模拟人的思维和逻辑，这种模拟让很多人感到恐慌。

科学家霍金曾经发出这样的警告，“未来可能会被人工智能摧毁”。

英语环球广播记者李世钰对话世界人工智能专家凯文•凯利(Kevin Kelly)，听听这位大咖怎么说。

凯文·凯利（Kevin Kelly，1952-）绰号KK，世界著名科技杂志《连线》创始主编，网络文化的发言人和观察者，第一届世界黑客大会发起者。1994年，其预言未来科技发展的传奇著作《失控》（Out of Control）横空出世，十几年后，文中的预言相继实现，2010年，《失控》的中文版问世，立即在中国互联网界和科技媒体中引起轰动，从此，KK的一言一行都成为互联网发展的“风向标”。

世界黑客大会（Hackers Conference）：诞生于1997年，每年七八月份在美国的拉斯维加斯举行，是电脑黑客们的盛会，堪称“黑客”大阅兵。黑客竞赛是大会最吸引人的主题，顶尖黑客会获得不菲的奖金。

老规矩，先听音频再看英文提要。

Q1： What drives the evolution of technology? 

What drives the evolution of technology is the same thing that drives the evolution of life. It’s moving towards greater complexity and greater specialization. Self-organization is the basic structure of the universe. There is a force within the universe that helps or encourages or channels self-organized things to become more and more complicated over time. We see that from the Big Bang and then we see how matters self-organized into galaxies, then they self-organized into stars, then self-organized into planets. Then on some planets, they self-organized into life. Some lives self-organized into mind. This self-organizing force is the same thing that self-organizes technology. 

Q2： What will technology look like eventually? 

Eventually technology will look like life. It will become self-replicating. It will become conscious like we are. It will become as complicated as many species as we see in life. The ideal technology will be something that gives its own energy, like an animal. We don't need to give it battery, as it will find energy itself. We don’t need a factory to make it, as it will make more of itself. We won’t have to direct it, as it will have internal direction. So it will look very much like a living thing to us today. So we are still at the early stage. 

Q3: Should we get worried about AI/robots, since one day they might outsmart us?

No, we should be excited! We are not going to work against AI but to work with AI. Working with AI is gonna be the powerful combination. Because the thing that people don’t know about AI but they have to understand is that they think differently than humans. The idea that they are smarter than humans is really an incorrect, misguided sense, because that will reduce human intelligence to a single dimension. They are just narrow, specialized and different than humans’ thinking. It’s useful to work with them. Because once we work with them, we will be able to go further together than we could alone. 

Q4： Will AI steal our jobs?

Every job we have is a bundle of different tasks. Some of those tasks are repetitive types of tasks and those types of tasks will go to robots. Some of your job won’t. Everybody’s job, no matter who you are, some of your tasks will go. So that means basically robots are going to redefine your job, not necessarily take it away. While they take away certain tasks, they are also going to create many more new tasks that we don’t even know we want it done. Our tasks and jobs will shift to include those things and there will be more things for us to do than ever before. It’s not about having a college degree or being professional, because a lot of things that we want it done will be about human experiences and things where it’s important for being human. Human touch is the only thing in our economy that is getting more expansive and not cheaper. There will be friction and transition period. It’s going to be difficult. But in the long term, we will have more jobs than ever before. 

Q5： What else might transform our world?

AI is the major thing. There is not a single industry, not a single industry, not a single sector that is not going to be affected by AI, in the same way that electricity has penetrated everything we do. Visual reality will also have a very large effect in a sense that it will become more powerful than social media is today. It will become the thing after smart phones. I think that will have a huge effect on education, training, industry, and office work. Social media is also going to be affected by VR in a very profound way. In the thirty-year horizon, it’s possible that we could invent our complete invention of fusion, solar fusion basically. It’s an energy source, which happens in the sun, (where) you take fuel, atom together and make cheap, clean, unlimited energy. There are  some other really fundamental bio-technologies would happen in the next thirty years, such as genetic engineering of human babies and eliminating certain diseases.  

Q6： Will we look different in the next thirty years? Are we going to be cyborg, half man, half robot? 

No. Biological stuff happens much slower than digital. But the glasses that we are wearing may become magical glasses that will allow you to have VR or mixed reality things. Maybe clothes that we are wearing will have sensors in them that will happen you posture or monitor your health 24 hours a day, so you will have one pill to give you everything you need to make you healthy. 

Q7： What will our city look like?

However, the room and the city will look not that different. There might be a few flying cars. There are certainly auto-driven cars so a lot of parking areas may change. The streets are still going to be there. Most of the changes that we will see in thirty years are not going to be in the physical world. That revolution had already happened, which is called the Industrial Revolution. Most of the changes are going to be in your head, such as who you think you are, how you conceive yourself, your social interactions and so on. You will be much more connected to the internet than you are right now. 

Q8： What will happen to China in the future?

I certainly think China will become a major source of innovation and products that everybody wants to buy. That requires a degree of cultural innovation that doesn’t quite happen but is becoming very close to. I think that requires a kind of cultural transformation. Two elements of the culture are missing right now. One is that people have to embrace failing-fast and failing-forward failure and the second missing cultural ingredient is being able to question the authority, being able to question your teachers, and being able to not accept the assumptions, to challenge the assumptions. That may take a generation or two. But when that happens and that can happen in thirty years, I think then China will begin to be able to produce truly innovative things and culture that people all over the world want.  

人工智将如何改变我们的生活、我们的世界？

赶快留言，获得大拇指最多的小伙伴将能够得到凯文•凯利亲笔签名的新书《必然》。

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