【纽伦港新动态•第331期】欧元区应避免陷入“低经济增长陷阱”
文/Vítor Constâncio（欧洲中央银行副行长）；编译（节选）/张雅欣
在经济危机发生后的九年，发达经济体显然是持续维持在一个低增长和低通货膨胀的情形下，目前这种迹象仍然没有改善。另外，许多国家陷入了一种疲惫的自满情绪，这种情绪似乎与“新的正常的长期经济平衡秩序”达到了平衡。然而，在我们的民主社会中，这并不是一个稳定的社会平衡，它甚至不是一个长期可持续的经济平衡。
我们的经济需要更合适的、更高的增长率，这就需要我们从经济危机中找出发展点，不断刺激投资和生产力并产生足够的收益来填补人口老龄化所需的养老金。经济合作与发展组织称目前的这种经济现状为“自我强化的低增长陷阱”。国际货币基金组织的Maurice Obstfeld说：“无论是短期内还是长期内的经济活动，如果没有确定的经济政策来支持，那么持续的低水平增长会逐渐危及自身。解决低水平增长需要通过政府主动调节低迷的经济进行宏观调控”。同时，这两家机构都提出，打破目前状态下的这种自我延续形态，需要有新的可以提升民众信心的明确政治举措和经济领域的“动物精神”。在这之前，我们有采取扩张性的货币政策来促进经济复苏、维持经济增长率。然而，确保持续的经济增长率和就业率不能只依赖于货币政策。从各个国家和整个欧洲层面上，都需要一个更为全面的应对政策，尤其是现在市场上已经出现了对货币政策的怀疑论，怀疑其是否可以在未来做出贡献的情况下。
欧元区经济展望
在谈到最近欧元区的发展，经济正在逐步恢复，这归功于欧洲央行的扩张性政策，另外也包括一些同步的措施，如显著改善的金融条件、减少金融分散化、控制的经济活动和通货膨胀，因为在没有采取有效控制的情况下，欧元区的增长和通胀都会明显的恶化。
近三年来，通货膨胀率一直保持在很低的水平，2014年通货膨胀率为0.4%，去年的通货膨胀率是0%，我们预测今年的通货膨胀率为0.2%。不过，在对九月份最新估计中，通货膨胀率达到了0.4%，这表明了今年的通货膨胀正在逐步向预期靠拢，即如果大宗商品价格没有出现大幅下跌的话，明年春天通货膨胀率将逐步增加到1%以上。另外，欧元区2016年上半年的增长率仅为1.7%，这与去年的增长率基本持平，然而，这一数字还远远没有达到令人满意的地步，特别是考虑到欧元区处于2012年至2013年的第二次经济衰退后的早期复苏阶段；另一值得关注的是，在工作机会不断增加的环境里，失业率尽管有所降低，但仍保持在10%以上。这些都是消极的方面，积极的方面是：在欧元区国家中，我们的经济政策初见成效，其GDP增长率和通货膨胀率之间的离散程度达到了自1999年以来的最低水平，同时，最近的经济增长在很大程度上是由国内需求驱动。事实证明，在过去一年中我们可以很好的应对一些经济冲击：如中国发生的股灾以及最近的英国公投。
其他政策
货币政策可以有效的校正周期性波动，也可以促进中期增长、建设投资，从而避免在劳动力市场的资本存量，避免潜在增长的滞后效应。然而，长期的经济增长主要是由生产力、技术创新、商业环境和公共机构的质量等因素决定的，这是不争的事实。对于所有的欧元区国家，这些决定因素都有需要改进，这就要求各国政府需要继续实施全面和重点的结构性改革。与此同时，财政政策也需要发挥更大的作用以支持经济复苏。财政扩张可以通过扩大资产的供应量以增加对经济增长率的贡献。
虽然，目前许多欧元区国家运用财政政策的能力有限，但这并不妨碍在有限的能力中最大限度的使用财政政策。对于所有的国家而言，应该重视财政政策的运用，提高财政政策运用程度，以使其更好的刺激经济增长，特别是财政政策在税收和公共投资等方面的运用。只有将结构性改革和财政政策相结合，在有限的能力中充分运用，才能更好的配合货币政策，让目前宽松的货币政策更好的刺激经济发展，更好的挖掘欧元区的经济增长潜力。
附英文原文：
The subject matter of our panel is a demanding one. Nine years after the beginning of the crisis, advanced economies are apparently settled in a regime of low growth and low inflation with no end in sight. In many places, a weary complacency seems to be reconciled with the “new normal long-term economic equilibrium”. However, in our democratic societies this is not a stable social equilibrium. It is not even a sustainable long-term economic equilibrium. Our economies need a higher level of nominal growth to work properly: to absorb overhangs from the crisis, to spur investment and productivity, to generate enough return for the pensions of an ageing population. The OECD referred to the present situation as a “self-reinforcing low growth trap” and the IMF”s Maurice Obstfeld stated “Without determined policy action to support economic activity over the short and longer terms, sub-par growth at recent levels risks perpetuating itself – through the negative economic and political forces it is unleashing.”. The self-perpetuating nature of the present dynamics, underlined by both institutions, has to be broken by new significant policy initiatives that can lift confidence and “animal spirits” in our economies.
Following the initial broad-based policy reaction, monetary policy has done most of the expansionary effort to support the recovery. Yet, securing sustained economic growth and employment cannot be dependent on monetary policy alone. At the national and European levels, a much more comprehensive policy response, especially now that markets have started to show scepticism about what monetary policy can continue to do going forward.
This underpins the urgency of both a meaningful implementation of targeted structural reforms and the adoption of growth friendly fiscal policies.
Prospects for the euro area economy
Turning to recent euro area developments, the recovery is continuing its moderate but steady pace, supported mainly by the ECB’s expansionary policies, which have significantly improved financial conditions, reduced financial fragmentation and supported economic activity and inflation. In the absence of our measures, both growth and inflation in the euro area would have been significantly worse, as our models calculate that inflation and growth would be lower by 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, than the forecast values of 0.2% and 1.7% for this year.
For three years now, inflation has been quite low with a level of 0.4% in 2014, 0% last year and 0.2% forecast for this year. However, the recent flash estimate for September at 0.4% may indicate a movement compatible with our baseline scenario that foresees a gradual increase to levels above 1% by next spring, if no major downward movement in commodity prices takes place. Additionally, the normalisation of inflation depends on the continued closing of the negative output gap and more dynamic wage behaviour.
Figure 1:
Yields on bank and non-financial bonds have eased by 90 and 100 basis points, respectively, in response to the measures taken, testifying to the effectiveness of the current policy package. Funding conditions for banks improved as wholesale money market rates became negative and as banks received direct support from new liquidity facilities with four-year maturities and low rates (TLTRO-I and II). These developments have stimulated the pass-through of this funding cost relief to borrowing costs for both firms and households.
As a consequence, bank lending rates to non-financial corporations (NFCs) and households are now at historical lows, and there has been a significant reduction in the fragmentation of lending rates across euro area countries as well as for large and small loans (see Figures 2 and 3). It is also important to note that the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) in November 2014 helped put the banking sector in a stronger position to transmit our monetary impulses.
Figure 2:
Figure 3:
The capital position of euro area significant banks has been improving from a common equity capital ratio (CET1) of 7% in 2008 and 9% in 2012, and now stands 14.4%, with a total capital ratio of 18%. The problem for European banks lies, however, in the present low profitability levels resulting from legacy non-performing loans, excess banking capacity, growing competition from non-banks and slow adjustment to new business models. Return on equity in the first half of 2016 was just 5.8%, against 5.5% for the whole of last year. The low profitability has driven a poor performance of stock prices, leading to quite low price-to-book ratios. Contrary to some perceptions, our monetary policy has had a positive effect on the profitability of banks since 2014, by reducing their funding costs, by ensuring capital gains related to higher prices of financial assets affected by QE, by reducing impairment costs and by increasing credit volumes as a result of a strengthening recovery. We are aware that some of these effects will wane with time and that the banking sector will have to undergo structural reforms to overcome the challenges of a low profitability environment that, looking forward, is not sustainable. Public policy initiatives are necessary to foster the restructuring efforts.
Other policies
Monetary policy is effective in correcting cyclical fluctuations, but it also contributes to medium-term growth by increasing capacity-building investment and by accelerating the closing of the output gap, thereby avoiding hysteresis effects in the labour market and in the capital stock that are detrimental to potential growth. Nevertheless, it is indisputable that long-term economic growth is mostly determined by supply-side factors such as productivity, technological innovation, the business environment and the quality of public institutions. In all euro area countries there is room for improvement in these areas. This requires governments to continue to implement a comprehensive and focused suite of structural reforms.
Fiscal policy also needs to play a larger role in supporting the recovery. Fiscal expansion can contribute to increased interest rates by expanding the supply of safe assets. Conceptually, in terms of overlapping generations models with small Ricardian effects, this would also push upwards the real equilibrium interest rate.
While many euro area countries have very limited fiscal room for manoeuvre, those that have some should use it. All countries, however, should look at ways to enhance the composition of their fiscal policies with a view to making it more growth-friendly, particularly in the area of taxation and the share of public investment. Only with the right combination of structural and fiscal policies is it possible to fully reap the benefits of our accommodative monetary policy and increase the euro area’s potential growth.
At the European level, firms and households need more clarity over the future institutional set-up of the euro area, which is incomplete in key areas, such as banking union and capital markets union. This uncertainty is detrimental to investment, increases the precautionary saving of households and undermines our monetary policy effectiveness. As I mentioned at the beginning, we need governments to activate an assertive three-pronged strategy of growth initiatives that can break the self-reinforcing mechanisms mentioned by the OECD and the IMF that seem to be condemning the advanced economies to a mediocre regime of socially unsustainable low nominal growth.（完）
文章来源：欧洲央行官网2016年10月9日（本文仅代表作者观点）
本篇编辑：张雅欣
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