【英文版】债券通一周年|将中国纳入全球债券指数的现况与前景
来源/香港交易所脈搏/HKEx Pulse
Bond Connect, the groundbreaking initiative linking global investors with China’s onshore bond market, is set to celebrate its first anniversary. To mark the occasion, HKEX has just published a new paper looking at the current status and future development of China’s bond market and the country’s inclusion into global bond indices.
Global investment in bonds has grown considerably over the past 15 years as funds increasingly flowed into emerging markets (EMs). The sharp increase can be attributed to EMs’ growing importance in the world economy and their increasingly globalised financial markets. After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, many EMs took steps to significantly improve their economic fundamentals, which yielded positive results. Several EMs had their ratings improved to “investment grade” because of a decrease in government debt. During the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, more importance was placed on bond markets in EMs as global investors preferred the debt market over the equity sector. This was largely due to the attractiveness of a high-yield bond market amid a low interest rate environment as central banks in major developed countries were extensively deploying expansionary monetary policies to stimulate economic growth.
However, despite the expansion of EM bonds in the global market, they have yet to be fairly represented in global bond indices. In fact, China’s bond issuance in Renminbi is highly under-represented in global indices with respect to the size of its economy despite rapid expansion and becoming the third largest in the world. In recent years, China has taken a number of steps to reduce the barriers to entry for foreign participation in its domestic bond market. In particular, the Bond Connect scheme, launched in July 2017, helped remove the barriers to entry to China’s bond market and eased restrictions on foreign investors’ trading in the market. This has enhanced China’s eligibility to meet the stringent criteria of global bond indices. However, certain operational issues continue to restrain foreign participation in China’s bond market, including: existing channels are not fully settled on a delivery-versus-payment (DVP) basis, the taxation policy on foreign investments in bonds remains opaque, there is difficulty in repatriating funds, and there continues to be low accessibility to liquid foreign exchange markets to hedge currency risk.
It is widely predicted that China will be included into global bond indices and will have a significant impact on the domestic and foreign markets in the foreseeable future. Once China is admitted and assigned a larger weighting in global bond indices, and as more exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track these indices increase their holdings in China’s bond sectors, hedging instruments will become intrinsic to reducing the domestic bond market’s receptiveness to international market volatility. Additionally, maintaining a solid sovereign rating is essential to attracting global institutional investors and remaining in global indices. China’s domestic bond market will be strengthened by an expanded investor base, a more mature banking sector and capital markets, and easier access by foreign investors. This will help mitigate the adverse impact of global financial shocks on RMB asset prices.
HKEX is preparing for its 5th Annual RMB Fixed Income &Currency Conference, which is set for next Tuesday. Speakers and panelists willtake a deep dive into current issues and trends in the RMB FIC markets. We’ll have all the highlights on HKEX Pulse.
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文章来源：微信公众订阅号“ 香港交易所脈搏/HKEx Pulse”2018年6月7日
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