送给中小企业的五味处方 — 面对疫情，中小企业怎样再出发？

由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响，全国各地的中小企业和创业公司受到不小的冲击，不仅要面临生存压力，还要保障员工的健康和公司的正常运转经营。那么疫情之后，中小企业该怎样再出发？让我们听听国际商务学副教授李磊博士怎么说。

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李磊 博士 Dr Lei Li

诺丁汉大学商学院（中国）

国际商务学副教授

Associate Professor in International Business, NUBS China

由武汉而起席卷全国并让世界恐慌的新冠病毒肆虐已有至少一个半月了，到了正月十五拐点似乎还不清晰，令国人惴惴不安。如果说这“飞来”的横祸毁了春节的喜庆令人沮丧，疫情造成的经济损失对国家、企业和个人都是更长远的痛楚。从企业角度来看，中小企业受到的冲击也许是最令人忧心的。最近几天已有一些专家学者及媒体人对中小企业在这波疫情中的生存现状做了些分析，也有针对性地提出了一些建议并呼吁政府出台措施帮助中小企业解困。比如笔者所在的宁波市2月4日出台了18条措施，涉及降低社保、减免利息、延期交税、外贸补贴、信贷支持、法律援助等方面。不过，总体来说，关于中小企业（基本是民企）能否撑过这轮危机，悲观的态度和不利的信息还是占了上风。社交媒体上已有报道称扛不住的企业已经开始倒闭，餐饮、旅游等服务业受到毁灭性打击等等。笔者朋友圈里有人甚至哀叹“几乎没有民营企业能熬过去”。笔者在此不想专门讨论宏观环境，也不想解读政府的扶持政策，而是想从战略学的学者（目前的职业）和战略咨询顾问（以前的职业）的角度探讨若干中小企业发展的根本问题。

1

行有不得，反求诸己

孟子的这句话的大致意思是遇到困难多自己反省，不要怨天尤人。虽然此话对所有企业家都适用，对中小企业家尤其重要。中小企业因为人少财力有限，通常会将诸多困难和挑战归于外因。虽然外因并非无关紧要，但中小企业多数情况下不愿意花时间对内因进行深入思考和挖掘。在这次疫情面前，中小企业更多考虑的是灾难造成的收入损失、人员工资福利、原料耗损及政府能否救市等，而很少冷静地分析企业的根本， 譬如企业所处产业的发展现状、产品或服务是否有足够的价值和竞争力、经营模式是否有效、核心团队的构成及能力等。如果产业尚有不错的前景、企业的根基还在，就应该有信心度过暂时的困难，重新整装待发。有不少中小企业原本就有致命的弱点，意料之外的灾祸只是加速了生存危机的到来而已。如果是这样，重新发掘机会并重起炉灶也不失为一个好的选项，所谓祸兮福所倚嘛！

2

甩开包袱，轻装前行

大多数企业经营者都知道战略分析的用途。战略分析的基本出发点，有时有点儿残酷，是认清现实。很多企业，尤其是中小企业的通病是总是幻想过去的可能性。多年前笔者的一个朋友经营一个小商号，因为进货不合理而出现严重亏损，很长时间这位仁兄都陷在懊悔中，不仅于事无补，也耽误了企业的发展。面对本次新冠病毒，也有很多餐饮及旅游业的企业家在后悔这次节日期间的业务规划太激进了。实际上，企业总会遇到沉没成本的问题。这种成本发生了就是不可逆的。与其吃后悔药，还不如认栽，轻装再出发。

3

天有不测，有备无患

笔者教授战略课程，无论是本科、研究生还是管理培训，经常使用计算机模拟的商战游戏。在数十次的教学当中，毫无例外，现金流的管理总是学生和学员碰到的难点。现金流的管理不能假设业务发展好，甚至不能假设业务正常，而是要模拟在企业很倒霉的情况之下现金流也不会断掉。实际上现金流管理的根本是风险管理。北大清华几天前联合调查了近千家中小企业面对本次新冠病毒所碰到的困难，其中三分之二以上的企业的现金只能维持不到两个月。这很大程度上说明国内中小企业的现金流管理是不够专业的。按上海华山医院张文宏主任的说法，如果疫情控制进入胶着的状态（持续半年到一年），大部分中小企业会因为现金断流而无法生存。北大清华的联合调研报告认为疫情是不可抗力，不是中小企业可以控制的，因此需要政府来救市。虽然笔者赞成政府出台短期扶持政策，但这场疫情确实反映了大量中小企业并不具备抗压和健康持久的发展能力。

4

专注创新， 寻找机遇

虽然在重大危机面前中小企业普遍抗压能力较低，但笔者注意到高科技的中小企业面对的困难明显小一些。主要原因是高科技企业单兵作战能力较强，远程办公的可能性较高，业务不容易全面中断。但这样的企业在疫情面前也面临团队协调效率降低、成本提高的问题。另外，高科技中小企业往往不直接面对最终用户，如果其企业客户出现状况对其往往有重大影响。对高科技中小企业来说，专注创新、探索新的需求是面对重大环境危机的取胜的关键。比如苏州固鍀在1998年的亚洲金融风暴中，面对二极管行业需求巨减的态势，反而加大产品创新力度，逆势增长。实际上，即使是非高科技的中小企业也有机会进行业务创新，度过危机。最近的相关报道显示，一些餐馆在堂食没有生意的情况下，开发外卖送餐业务。虽说这可能是权宜之计，但如果客户满意的话，说不定是一条不错的长期业务线。另外，已有海外业务或正在国际化的中小企业也可以在这一特定时期侧重于海外业务的开拓，所谓东方不亮西方亮嘛！

5

文化为本，保持定力

长期以来，中小企业的文化并不被看重，似乎文化只是大企业的事情。笔者不久前在美国波士顿参加了一个风险投资人的演讲。该投资人大谈创始企业的文化及领导力，有点儿出乎笔者意料。不过意料之外，却也在情理之中。笔者在美国任教的时候，曾对当地一家叫绿木源（Greenwood Resources）的小型人工造林的企业有过研究，该企业曾在林场意外大片被毁的情况下还坚持生态林业，不仅留下了骨干力量，而且还吸引了顶尖林业科学家加盟。前面提到的苏州固鍀在1991年企业还很小的时候就把人文关怀作为企业的家文化在推动，这对多年来团队的稳定及业务的持续发展起了很大的作用。宁波方太厨具在二次创业的初期就强调高质量和高端品牌的文化，稳扎稳打，保持定力，使得企业成为高端厨具行业的国家级专项冠军。

笔者在此强调，中小企业是我国经济发展、民生稳定的支柱力量，需要政府在新冠病毒这类重大疫情面前加以扶持。不过中小企业本身更应该利用这次危机反思自己的业务根基，经营管理理念和文化，为今后的发展脱胎换骨或重起炉灶做准备。在我们喊出武汉加油、中国加油的时候，也大喊一声：中小企业加油！

Amid the novel coronavirus outbreak: What are the real lessons for Chinese SMEs?

The novel coronavirus epidemic has rampaged from Wuhan through China and beyond since the end of 2019 and the uncertainty of its end is worrisome for the Chinese public and global communities. Apart from the disappointment that the Spring Festival was totally ruined for most Chinese, the long term consequences of economic development will also be of significance. From a business perspective, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to the impact of the epidemic. Some economists, business scholars and bloggers have offered various advice to SMEs and called for the government to come to their rescue. The municipal government of Ningbo, for example, was one of the first local governments to promulgate a list of urgent measures to ease the difficulties faced by SMEs: partial exemption of social security contributions, reduced interest payments, deferral of taxes, favourable loans, foreign trade subsidies, legal services, and others. Overall, there is a pessimistic sentiment with respect to the survival of SMEs. There is news of SME bankruptcies, the disastrous impact of the coronavirus on the restaurant business and tourism, and even an extremist claims on social media that SMEs will be more or less wiped out in the epidemic’s aftermath. Granted, the disaster matters and yes, the government should do something. But what are the real lessons for SMEs?

Slide up for more details.

If it doesn't work, turn to yourself

This well-known doctrine of Mencius is widely applicable and particularly relevant to SMEs in the face of a serious crisis such as the novel coronavirus outbreak. With limited financial resources and manpower, SMEs have the tendency to use external factors as excuses for their setbacks and failures. Thus, they rarely examine their internal attributes on an in-depth level. Amid the current virus outbreak, SMEs are typically obsessed with losses of revenue, labour costs, waste of raw materials and possible government bailouts. Few are willing to probe into their business fundamentals such as their value propositions, their core team structures and competences, and industry trends (regardless of the epidemic) etc. For SMEs in relatively promising industries, there is actually no need to doubt their capabilities in enduring the crisis and recovering in the aftermath as long as their businesses are built on solid foundations. For those in obsolete business sectors and/or have serious weaknesses, the virus disaster could give them a dose of reality and it’s fine to seek new opportunities and reset everything. This misfortune could be a disguised blessing!

Let go and move on

Business people don’t normally question the value of strategic analysis. However, there is a lack of understanding about how to set out a good strategic analysis. The very starting point, though at times seems a bit cruel, is to understand where you are, not where you wish to be. A friend of mine was operating a small retail business years ago and once incurred a big loss as a result of overstocking. He was so obsessed with the mistake and could barely deal with the business’s near future. Amid the novel coronavirus outbreak, many business owners and managers in restaurant and tourist businesses wish they could have been less aggressive in their business planning for the holiday season to alleviate their losses. SMEs are often reluctant to accept sunk costs. Given that the costs are irreversible, SMEs should just get over it and move on.

"Shit happens" and cash is the king

I have been teaching a range of strategy classes at undergraduate and postgraduate levels and also conducting managerial training. I often use a computer simulation to enable students and managers to learn about developing and implementing business strategies. Often times, the students and managers have trouble managing cash flows. A fundamental problem is that people tend to project cash flow based on either promising or reasonable business scenarios. Rarely do they consider what if “shit happens”. Put differently, managers should try to make sure that cash is enough even for the worst-case scenario. A recent joint survey with nearly 1000 Chinese SMEs by Peking University and Tsinghua University shows that more than two-thirds of the SMEs would run out of cash within two months if a disaster were to strike. In case the epidemic doesn’t end according to the best scenario described by Dr Zhang Wenhong of Huashan Hospital in Shanghai, the majority of the SMEs will likely be out of business. The researchers conducting the survey called for the government to bail out the SMEs as the virus outbreak was out of their control. I do agree that the government should help to a certain extent. But the real lesson here is that SMEs are poor at managing risks.

Focus on innovation and seek new opportunities

Despite the fact that SMEs are generally vulnerable to the virus outbreak, high-tech SMEs seem to fare much better because they tend to employ professionals who can work independently and/or flexibly without having to come to the worksite. Nevertheless, even high-tech SMEs may have to cope with lower efficiency and higher costs as virtual/online coordination is suboptimal. Furthermore, high-tech SMEs normally deal with industrial clients rather than end-users and thus may suffer if their clients are in trouble. For high-tech SMEs in the face of the epidemic, a viable approach is to continue to focus on innovation and seek new opportunities. For example, Good-Ark, a Suzhou-based diode specialist was able to effectively cope with the sharp decline of industrial demand caused by the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis through enhanced product innovation. As a result, the company was able to defy the odds and grow its business. Actually, innovation could be the key for all SMEs to endure a serious crisis. Many restaurants, for example, have completely lost their dine-in business during the current epidemic. Instead of sitting idly by, some have tried to develop meal delivery services which may turn out to be more than promising in the long run. For those with international business or planning to pursue international expansion, the crisis might enable them to strengthen their development through international business.

Develop a corporate culture and stay focused

There is a common misperception that corporate culture only matters for mainly large firms. I happened to attend a guest speech by a venture capitalist in Boston not long ago. To my surprise, the speaker was talking at length about the corporate culture of new ventures. This makes total sense in hindsight. When I was teaching in the U.S., I studied a small tree plantation company. This company was nearly out of business after a large swath of its tree farm was destroyed by a fire. The small business stuck to the principle of responsible forestry management in the face of the disaster. The strong culture not only helped the small company keep its core employees but also attracted a top forest scientist to join the team. The Suzhou-based Good-Ark started to establish its humanistic care culture in 1991 when the company was still in its humble beginnings. Humanistic care has played an important role in motivating and maintaining its employees and sustaining its business growth over the past few decades. FOTILE, a Ningbo-based kitchenware company, is also well-known for its strong corporate culture. The company emphasised high quality and high-end branding early on and has stayed focused on its core business and as a result, has become a hidden champion in the kitchen appliance business.

The lessons for SMEs as elaborated above do not imply in any sense that SMEs should not strive for external help such as the government support in the face of a major crisis such as the novel coronavirus outbreak. Nevertheless, it’s perhaps more essential for SMEs to reflect on their business fundamentals including value proposition, innovation and corporate culture.

Come on, Wuhan! Come on, China! Come on, Chinese SMEs!

END

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文字: Lei Li

本篇来源：诺丁汉大学商学院（中国）

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