李开复时代杂志专栏：中国世界工厂 + AI 的未来

最近，我在《TIME时代》杂志的专栏文章里，向全球的读者介绍了中国“世界工厂”的+AI自动化升级。随着劳动力成本的上涨，工业自动化、智能化势必是中国制造业的一剂特效药。自动化能让运营成本下降，但仍能让中国保持生产质量、流程、供应链维度的优势。AI赋能产业升级的愿景或许还需多年才能实现，但当下的中国已经让未来可期。

以下是专栏文章全文：

图片来自：《TIME时代》官网

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作者：李开复

创新工场董事长兼CEO

创新工场人工智能工程院院长

多年来，中国一直被喻为“世界工厂”，即便在全球其他经济体纷纷遭遇新冠疫情重击的2020年，中国制造产业仍然维持稳健的增长范式，全年产值高达3.854万亿美元，占到全球市场近三分之一。

但如果你脑中的中国工厂是传统的“血汗工厂”，是时候修正你的刻板印象了。中国经济已经迅速地从疫情冲击下复苏，疫情同时催化了各种各样人工智能（AI）的应用场景加速实现。自2014年以来，中国的AI专利申请量已经超越美国，至今维持全球领先。在学术领域，中国的AI研究论文发表数量、AI期刊的引用量，也双双在近年超过了美国。在产业方面，AI应用在国内的落地速度超越世界其他国家和地区，具有商业价值的AI应用如今开始百花齐放，整合了软件、硬件和机器人技术的新一代自动化揭开序曲，AI赋能传统行业的能量，正在蓄势待发地重塑各行各业。

人类社会至今经历了三次不同的工业革命：蒸汽革命、电力革命和信息革命。我相信，AI将会是推动全球第四次工业革命的核心引擎，在世界各地点燃数字化和自动化的变革，而这波前所未有的硬科技浪潮，将由中国来引领实践。

由于劳动人口减少和新增人口放缓，中国的传统产业正面临着劳动力成本上升的巨大压力，AI正是解决这个难题的技术解答。人工智能不仅能够降低运营成本，提高生产效率，扩大整体产能，还有望能带来收入的增长。

例如，创新工场投资的广州的极飞科技是一家致力于未来农业的AI科技公司，极飞将无人机、机器人和传感器部署在稻田、麦田和棉花田里，用技术赋能农业中的播种、农药喷洒、栽种管理、甚至天气监测环节。用于作物喷洒的极飞科技R150农业无人车已经被推广到了英国，应用在苹果、草莓、黑莓等多种经济作物的种植流程中。

2019年，新疆库尔勒农民操作极飞农业无人机为棉花打药除虫 

一些中国的创新公司正积极把机器人拓展到意想不到的场景。总部位于北京的镁伽是创新工场投资的生命科学智能自动化公司，他们和实验室、制药公司、高校合作，凭借AI+机器人技术的积累，用自动化解决方案执行实验室中劳动密集、重复性高、但需要高度精确的任务和流程，同时机器人作业也将尽最大可能保护实验室人员降低实验过程中的感染风险。

镁伽Megafluent 自动化系统进行实验室自动化

除了创业公司，我们看到几家成熟的领军企业也开始积极拥抱AI。创新工场参与了有28年历史的中力电动叉车，这家头部的锂电叉车制造商已经推出了能够在工厂、仓库自主运行的无人叉车，并且无需对运行环境进行改造，能快速实现从手动到电动到自动驾驶的搬运赋能创新。此外，拥有50多年历史的领先客车制造商-宇通集团，与自动驾驶独角兽企业-文远知行战略合作，已在三个城市的马路上运行全无人驾驶小巴。

2021年，中力搬马机器人XP1在DC进行点到点货物搬运

2021年，文远知行WeRide无人驾驶小巴在广州开展测试

接着会发生什么？我大胆预见，在更长远的未来，机器人和AI将接管大多数产品的制造、设计、交付甚至营销——很可能将生产成本降低到和原物料成本相差无几。未来的机器人有能力自我复制和自我修复，甚至做到部分自我迭代设计。房屋和公寓将交由AI主导设计，使用预制建筑模块，交由机器人像搭积木似地筑楼盖房。无人公交、无人摩托等随传随到的自动化未来交通系统，能将我们安全无虞地送达想去的地方。

这些愿景成为现实或许还需要多年，但此时的中国正在积极铺垫引领新一代自动化革命的基石。可期的是，中国工厂的实力将不仅仅体现在产能上，而将逐步彰显在智能上。

本文经《TIME时代》授权进行中文编译，原文如下：

China Is Still the World's Factory — And It's Designing the Future With AI

BY KAI-FU LEE

For many years now, China has been the world’s factory. Even in 2020, as other economies struggled with the effects of the pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, up from the previous year, accounting for nearly a third of the global market.

But if you are still thinking of China’s factories as sweatshops, it’s probably time to change your perception. The Chinese economic recovery from its short-lived pandemic blip has been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). After overtaking the U.S. in 2014, China now has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications. In academia, China recently surpassed the U.S. in the number of both AI research publications and journal citations. Commercial applications are flourishing: a new wave of automation and AI infusion is crashing across a swath of sectors, combining software, hardware and robotics.

As a society, we have experienced three distinct industrial revolutions: steam power, electricity and information technology. I believe AI is the engine fueling the fourth industrial revolution globally, digitizing and automating everywhere. China is at the forefront in manifesting this unprecedented change.

Chinese traditional industries are confronting rising labor costs thanks to a declining working population and slowing population growth. The answer is AI, which reduces operational costs, enhances efficiency and productivity, and generates revenue growth.

For example, Guangzhou-based agricultural-technology company XAG, a Sinovation Ventures portfolio company, is sending drones, robots and sensors to rice, wheat and cotton fields, automating seeding, pesticide spraying, crop development and weather monitoring. XAG’s R150 autonomous vehicle, which sprays crops, has recently been deployed in the U.K. to be used on apples, strawberries and blackberries.

Some companies are rolling out robots in new and unexpected sectors. MegaRobo, a Beijing-based life-science automation company also backed by Sinovation Ventures, designs AI and robots to safely perform repetitive and precise laboratory work in universities, pharmaceutical companies and more, reducing to zero the infection risk to lab workers.

It’s not just startups; established market leaders are also leaning into AI. EP Equipment, a manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts founded in Hangzhou 28 years ago, has with Sinovation Ventures’ backing launched autonomous models that are able to maneuver themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. Additionally Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years’ history, already has a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities in partnership with autonomous vehicle unicorn WeRide.

Where is all this headed? I can foresee a time when robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, design, delivery and even marketing of most goods—potentially reducing costs to a small increment over the cost of materials. Robots will become self-replicating, self-repairing and even partially self-designing. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that robots put together like toy blocks. And just-in-time autonomous public transportation, from robo-buses to robo-scooters, will take us anywhere we want to go.

It will be years before these visions of the future enter the mainstream. But China is laying the groundwork right now, setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.

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