【原文推送】克罗谈投资策略 09 第七章 把注意力集中在长期趋势上（2）

第七章 把注意力集中在长期趋势上（2）

Focus on the Long-Term Trends

I receive quite a few letters and calls from traders about various aspects of speculation. But one from a professional trader in Pittsburgh in August 1984 bears special significance as it relates to the subject under discussion:

我接到很多交易者寄来的信和打来的电话，谈论投机交易的各个层面。但是其中匹兹堡一位专业交易者1984年8月所写的一封信，跟上面所说的主题有特别的关联：

We have been hearing quite a bit about the difficulty of trading many current markets. No sooner does the trend “flip” on a great many of the computer systems out there, and the majority of public speculators get aboard the “new trend,” than the market seems to reverse again and goes racing the other way. This sort of thing is happening with increasing regularity.

大家都说在目前的市场情况下进行交易是很困难的。非常多的电脑交易系统一再显示趋势“掉头”，于是大部分的投机者都跳上“新趋势”，没多久市场又转向了，而且是快速往另一个方面奔进。这种事情越来越成为家常便饭。

Why is this happening, and what can the trader do to avoid such frequent traps? Unfortunately, many operators use an excessively short-term focus in their technical analysis. As an example, nearly every minor technical rally to an entrenched downtrend, especially rallies lasting a week or more, are suddenly viewed as newly emerging uptrends. In fat, they are nothing more than minor rallies within an overall bear market. Actually, a much better opportunity to sell than to buy!

这种事情为什么会发生？交易者如何才能避免这种陷阱？很遗憾，很多交易者在做技术分析的时候，眼光都过于短浅。比如说，主趋势是下跌的趋势中，几乎每一个小小的技术性反弹，尤其是前后长达一个星期或更久的反弹，马上就会有人看成是新出现的上涨趋势。事实上，这只不过是整个下跌趋势中一次小小的反弹而已。其实这是个卖出的大好机会！

A case in point is the copper market, where a recent technical rally to the 76.00 level (basis December future) “flipped” many of the short-term trending systems to UP. Weak speculative buying snowballed the technical advance and was actually the cause of the rally. When this buying abated, the market just collapsed and continued its ongoing long-term downtrend. The same for the May/July rally in D-Mark to the 38.00 level (basis September), which suckered so many commission house traders to rush in on the long side. Again, when their buying stopped supporting the market, the downtrend resumed in earnest (see Figures 7-3 and 7-4).

黄铜市场便是一个很好的例子。铜价最近出现技术性反弹，涨到76.00（12月期货），造成很多短期交易系统都“掉头”说是上涨趋势出现。事实上，这次反弹的原因在于一些软弱的投机性买盘进场。买盘缩手后，价格没办法维持在高处，又会继续原来的长期下跌趋势。5，6月间德国马克（9月）涨到38.00也是同理，吸引了很多经纪行的交易者抢着做多。同样，他们的买盘没办法支撑该价位后，继续下跌，而且更为猛烈（见图7-3和7-4）。

图7-3　1984年12月黄铜市场

【The early April rally to the 76.00 level was just an intermediate rally in the long-term downtrend. It was largely due to bottom-probing by commission house speculators, with the buying tending to encourage additional speculative buying. The perennially bullish speculators didn’t want to miss the beginning of the next copper bull market. The trade was happy to sell into this rally. When the speculative buying abated, the major downtrend resumed, and prices collapsed down to the 55.00 level over the ensuing six months.

4月初反弹到76.00，只是长期下跌趋势中的一次中期反弹，主要是经纪行投机者在抄底。他们进场买入，又鼓励更多的投机性买盘买入。多头投机者不想错过下一波的黄铜多头市场。空头当然很乐于趁高抛出。当投机性买盘后继乏力，下跌趋势又开始了，接下来6个月价格崩跌到55.00。】

图7-4　1984年9月德国马克

【The May-June rally from 36.60 to 38.20 was interpreted by many speculators as a trend reversal from down to up, and was accompanied by heavy commission house buying. In reality, this was just another intermediate-term rally in the longstanding (five-year) bear market. Knowledgeable technical operators played this as an opportunity to add to shorts, especially as the rally towards 38.00 approximated 50 percent of the previous bear trend down-leg. Their discipline was rewarded; the market collapsed, following the abatement of the speculative buying, and prices tumbled to 33.00 by September.

很多投机者以为5月——6月德国马克从36.00反弹到38.20是趋势由跌翻涨，而且在这个过程中还有经纪行的大量买盘介入。其实这只是长期（5年）空头趋势中另一次中期反弹而已。知识经验丰富的技术交易者，认为这是加仓做空的大好良机，尤其是弹向38.00，接近上一段下跌的50%时，更是做空的好机会。他们严守纪律，得到了报偿。投机性买盘枯竭之后，市场崩跌，9月时跌到33.00。】

In both of these markets, as in so many others during recent months, brief instances of strength were actually nothing more than technical (corrective ) rallies within the context of an on-going major bear trend. Undoubtedly, a longer-term focus, including the use of weekly and monthly continuation charts, and less of a reliance on ultra short-term technical studies, could help a speculator avoid the frustrating and costly style of buying high and selling low that is becoming known as the “oops” approach to trade timing.

这两个市场，跟近几个月来其它很多市场一样，短期绽露的强势，其实不过是持续空头主趋势的技术性反弹（修复）而已。毫无疑问的，把眼光放长，包括使用周线和月线图，减少依赖非常短期的技术性研究，可以帮助投机者避开高买低卖的情况。这种自取其败的交易手法，不但令人沮丧，而且老是亏钱。

This letter aptly expresses the problem of trying to put on long-term trend-following positions, utilizing short- or even micro-term input for trade timing and trend identification. You just have to be consistent. For long-term trend-following investing, use long-term tools-weekly and monthly charts, seasonal studies, and possibly a good technical system with a long-term focus.

这封信十分贴切地说明了既想顺势做长线，又想利用短期甚至分时的技术图形，去抓进出时机和找趋势是有问题的。其实你只要前后一致，相互呼应就可以了。对于顺势做长线投资，应该使用长期的工具——周线图，月线图，季节性资料，还要有一个侧重于长期的良好技术系统。

There is a related consideration, not often mentioned, that is imperative for successful position trading. It is patience! Of all the personal traits necessary, this one stands directly alongside discipline, as being essential in any serious trading campaign. In thing about these personal characteristics, my mind flashes back to a time, many years ago, when a young man barely past 30 borrowed $10,000, bought three exchange memberships (yes, in the late 60s, $10,000 was able to buy three memberships, with change left over), and opened his own clearing firm. Eager to establish his reputation as an analyst and broker, he waited patiently for the one “almost sure” market situation into which he could put his clients and friends.

仓位交易要成功，还有一件相关的事情必须考虑，不过这件事很少被人提到，那就是耐心！在各种必备的人格素质中，耐心和纪律可以说是难兄难弟；在任何严肃的交易场合中，耐心和纪律都是很重要的。谈到这些人格素质，我就想起一件往事。那是很多年以前的事了：一位年龄刚过30的年轻人借了10000元，买了3个交易所的会员席位（这里没写错，60年代末，10000元是可以买到3个会员席位，后来才有修正）。他自己开了一家清算公司。他急着建立名声，让大家都知道他是很优秀的分析师和经纪人，于是使出忍耐的功夫，决定等到“几乎百分之百”的机会才会把客户和朋友的钱投入。

After several months of just executing orders at his clients’ direction and writing technical market commentaries, the young man finally found it - the almost-sure situation for which he had so patiently waited.

几个月过去了，他只是单线地执行客户的委托，没事时写些技术市场评论，终于这位年轻人找到了机会——他一直苦苦等待，千载难逢的稳赚良机。

It was sugar! He checked and rechecked his hypotheses, researched the market the best he could, studied all the charts, both historical and current, and talked to people in the sugar trade. Then, after he was satisfied that this was really it, he went to work. That involved writing reports and market letters and distributing them through ads, market seminars, and personal contacts. He worked doggedly, putting in 12- to 14-hours days-and the results came in. He had accumulated a large sugar position for himself and his clients with an average price of around 2.00. Just imagine - 2.00.

那就是糖！他把自己的设想检查了一遍又一遍，尽已所能去研究市场，研究所有的图形，不管是过去还是现在的图形，总是看了又看。同时也请教了对糖很熟悉的投资者。他终于满意了，认为这就是他正在等待的机会，便开始工作。他通过广告，研讨会和私人拜访宣传他撰写的报告和市场快讯。他很勤奋，一天工作12到14小时——成果终于展现在眼前。他为自己和客户积累了庞大的仓位，平均价格是2.00左右。看仔细些——是2.00。

At that piddling price, the young man calculated that the jute bag plus the labor to fill it with sugar actually exceeded the value of the sugar contents. How could he lose?

这个年轻人算得很精：单是麻袋成本加上人工成本就超过麻袋里面糖的价值，以那么低的价格买入，他怎么会亏？

But he hadn’t reckoned with Murphy’s Law. Instead of going north, as it was supposed to, the market continued south…right down to 1.33! He (I) watched it happen-and the margin calls that week further confirmed the reality of the market collapse-but I still found it hard to believe.

但是他没有想到墨菲定律。他以为市场会涨，但是市场却继续下跌……向下一直跌到1.33！他（我）眼睁睁地看着这种事情发生——而那周追缴保证金的通知更证实了市场崩跌的事实——但我仍觉得这件事不可思议。

I lost some one third of my position on that little shakeout. But being convinced that the market was at historical lows, having seen the open interest vastly deflate on that professional bear raid, and having examined the long-term and seasonal charts for a further clue to likely long-range action, I had even more confidence in an eventual bull deal. We sat with our position as the market continued sideways. We weren’t losing money except for the rollover costs as each future expired. Finally, salvation and big profits arrived in the guise of the massive bull market that started in 1969 and culminated at the 60-plus level in 1974 (see Figure 7-5). What a ride that was! It was also a first-class lesson on the importance of patience, discipline, and a longer-term focus in speculative operations.

在这段小小的崩跌过程中，我输掉了约三分之一的仓位。但我仍相信市场正处于历史性低点，而且市场被专业空头袭击后，持仓量大为减少。再加上检查了长期和季节性的图形，找到长期趋势的信号后，我对自己更有信心，相信多头趋势终会来到。市场继续横向盘整，我们继续持有仓位。只要不杀出，我们就没亏钱，损失的只是每一个期货到期的换期成本。最后，救兵来到，大多头市场于1969年降临，并于1974年达到60.00多的高潮（见图7-5）。这是多么过瘾的一趟旅程！这也是绝佳的教训，告诉我们：投机性交易时必须有耐心，严守纪律，以及把眼光放远。

图7-5　长期糖期货月线图（最近月份期货）

【Talk about needing patience! I accumulated a big position in 1967-68 around the 2.00 level, right before it plummeted to 1.33. I lost some one third of the position on this drop, and held on to long sugar for two years before the market broke out of its long sideways range and started moving up. Once on the move, however, the bull market lasted five years, culminating at the 60.00-plus level in late 1974.

说到耐心！1967——1968年，我在大约2.00的价格水平积累了大量的多头仓位，之后糖价立即掉落到1.33。这使我损失了三分之一的仓位，我一直持有糖多头仓位为时2年，之后市场突破长期盘整区，开始上涨。一旦趋势形成，多头市场持续了5年，糖价在1974年底涨到60.00多的最高价。】

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