【原文推送】克罗谈投资策略10 第八章 趋势是你的朋友

第八章 趋势是你的朋友

The Trend Is Your Friend

It was late July of 1980, and I had recently returned to New York from a five-year, mid-life, temporary retirement. After 16 years in the front-line trenches of trading, I needed the change of scenery and the relaxation as a way of recharging my batteries. Shortly after my return, I started receiving charts and market letters from an account executive at one of the major commission firms.This person and I had never met or corresponded, and I had the impression that mine was just another name on his cold-prospect mailing list. Nevertheless, he approached his task zealously, and my mailbox was kept full of his firm’s mailings and advisories. Although I never gave him much encouragement, he kept in touch over the years, occasionally sending a “special situation” report.

1980年7月底，我刚结束长达5年，半辈子以来一次的暂时退休日子，回到纽约。经过16年在期货市场的冲锋陷阵，我需要换换口味，松弛一下身心，给自己充电。回来没多久，我就开始接到某大经纪行业务经理寄来的图表和市场快报。我跟这个人从来没碰过面，也没通过信，我知道我只是他不抱希望的一个潜在客户，我的名字躺在那希望不大的邮件列表中。虽然这样，他还是热情工作，我的信箱里塞满了他寄来的资料和咨询。虽然我从来没有鼓励过他，他依然数年如一日，不断寄资料，有时候还会有“特别情况”的报告。

Several years elapsed, and he changed firms in the interim, but I still got a report from him once or twice a year. Incredible persistence! In the spring of 1986, I found myself on Wall Street with some time to spare between appointments and noticed that I was in the lobby of this gentleman’s office. So I took the elevator up, located my party, and introduced myself. It seemed strange, meeting him after six years of occasional correspondence. Following the requisite small talk, he asked for my account. I told him I wanted to see the pages recording his client’s trades (he could cover the names) before making any decision. He was taken aback at this request but nevertheless complied thinking, I suppose, that I probably couldn’t decipher the overall results in the cursory glance he allotted me. He was wrong.

几年倏忽而过，他换了公司，但我每年还会接到他寄来的一，二份报告。这种锲而不舍的精神叫人难以置信！1986年春，我在华尔街，在忙碌的行事历中发现空档，而我竟然到了那位仁兄办公大楼的大厅，于是我搭了电梯上楼，找到了他，自我介绍。这件事看起来有点荒诞不经，因为我是经过6年藕断丝连的通信后才跟他见面。客套一番后，他问我要不要当他的客户。我告诉他，必须先看过他客户的交易纪录之后（他可以把客户的姓名盖起来），才能做决定。他吓了一跳，但还是慨然答应，看他的表情，好像即使把交易纪录拿给我看，匆匆一瞥我也看不出什么所以然来。但是他错了。

In fact, I was able to decipher the results-and they were abysmal. Here was the living embodiment of the speculators’ laments that I write about so often. It seems this earnest gentleman did hardly anything right, and it didn’t take any kind of a genius to notice that. Small profits and lots of large losses, rather a preponderance of day trades or very short-term holdings, and this from a person who professed to be a long-term position trader. In reality, he was no different from scores of traders I had met over the years. He knew the rules and the buzzwords of successful operations, but something always seemed to happen between the time he put on the position and the time he delivered his winnings to the bank. In fact, I was almost annoyed by the constant repetition of what had to be his favorite saying (I must admit, I had never heard it before). “And remember, Mr. Kroll, the trend is your friend.” I recall wondering, since he wanted the trend to be my friend, why it wasn’t his friend as well. But, from my brief examination of his track record, I concluded that any “friendship” between this person and the trend was purely coincidental - or nonexistent.

其实，我能够从他的交易纪录里看出一些东西来——他的表现实在惨不忍睹。我从他的纪录里，看到了前面一再说过的“投机者的悲叹”，他是具体而生动的例子。看起来这位热心的仁兄几乎没做对什么事情，这点傻瓜都能看出来。从纪录上看，他赚的时候是小赚，亏的时候是大亏，每天忙着抢进抢出，持有仓位的时间十分短暂，而这个人还好意思说他是长线交易者。实际上，他跟我这么多年来见过的其他很多交易者是一样的。他知道交易成功的原则和秘诀，但是在他建立仓位到把利润存进银行之间，好像总会发生一些事情。他一再挂在嘴边的口头禅叫我有点生气（我必须承认，以前从没听过这种话）。他总是说：“克罗先生，你必须记住：趋势是你的朋友。”我觉得很奇怪，既然他希望趋势能成为我的朋友，为什么趋势不能成为他的朋友？我利用很短暂的时间看了他的纪录，最后得到的结论是：这个人跟趋势如果有什么“友谊”的话，那可以说是纯属巧合——或者说他和趋势根本没有友谊。

As I was leaving, I asked if he would mind checking the day’s range in sugar. My technical studies told me that the trend had just flipped from down to up, signifying a possible reversal in the long-standing and pervasive bear trend that had taken this market down from 12.00 to under 3.00 over the past two years. “What’s the symbol for sugar?” he asked me, as he tried to punch in the code on his desktop quote display. “How should I know the symbol on your machine?” I replied. “Each quote system has its own symbols.” “Okay, just give me a second. I’ll ask someone for the symbol. Uh sorry, no one seems to remember the symbol for sugar. It’s been so long since anyone traded the stuff.”

临走前，我请他告诉我当天糖的报价。我经过技术研究之后，发现趋势刚由跌翻涨，两年来由12.00跌到3.00，漫长稳固的空头趋势有可能反转。他必须把糖的代码敲进桌上的报价显示器，于是转头问我：“糖的代码是什么？”我说：“我怎么知道你的机器用什么代码？每套报价系统都有它自己的代码。”“那好，给我几秒钟时间，我找个人来问问。哦，对不起，好像没有人知道糖的代码，大家早就不做糖了。”

The feeling started at that precise moment, I think, even before I took my leave and walked down the paneled corridor to the elevator. Granted, it was just a gut reaction, but I came away with the unmistakable message that, yes, we had seen the bottom in sugar. I felt as though some bearded and be-robed prophet had appeared to me in a vision, with the simple and inscrutable message, “Buy sugar, my son… buy sugar.” Perhaps this was the final confirmation of what my charts and computer studies had been saying since the 17th of July. Although I needed neither this unfortunate account executive nor my be-robed vision to help confirm my view of an important bull deal developing in sugar, I felt that they couldn’t hurt either. In fact, this person was precisely echoing the collective sentiments of the large body of public speculators who had been battered senseless (and penniless) trying to find the bottom over the past two years. Most of them would now undoubtedly miss the real bottom because they had either stopped looking or were “gun shy,” believing that sugar could never do anything but continue d-o-w-n (see Figure 8-1).

就在这个时刻，我的感觉来了——不必等到我起身离开，走到电梯间，那个感觉就产生了。当然，那只是第六感，但是我就是感觉到一个绝对不会错的信息——没错，我们看到了糖的底部。我的感觉就好像眼前站着一个留着络腮胡，穿长袍的先知，告诉我一句简单和不可思议的话：“买糖，我的儿子……买糖。”这是我的图表和电脑研究从7月17日以来一直说的话，现在算是最终确认。我不需要那位运气欠佳的业务经理和穿长袍的先知告诉我糖市正酝酿一波重要的多头趋势，当然，这种人也没什么害处。其实，那位仁兄所表现出来的行为，正好是广大投机大众的集体人气。两年来，这些人一直在抄底，却被打傻了（也没钱了）。毫无疑问，现在大部分人已经停止寻找底部，他们已经怕了，相信糖除了下跌之外，其它的事情都不会出现，以至错过了真正的底部（见图8-1）。

图8-1　1986年7月糖　　（文字：糖的底部终于确认）

【Although most speculators would like the trend to be their friend, it is a tenuous friendship at best. When sugar finally made its bottom, during mid-July, few speculators caught the turn. They had been so battered over the past two years trying to pick the bottom in the solid market. The prevailing sentiment was one of near-permanent bearishness. The small number of clear-thinking technical traders who caught the trun had the field all to themselves.

大部分投机者都希望趋势成为他们的朋友，趋势跟他们顶多是泛泛之交而已。7月中旬糖终于探底，只有很少的投机者抓住了反转点。两年来，在坚稳的空头趋势里，他们试图去找寻底部，结果搞得灰头灰脸。因此大家的看法普遍是：这是个没完没了的空头趋势。少数头脑清晰的技术交易者，抓住了反转点，尝尽了甜头。】

Unlike the hapless majority of traders, the successful operator seeks to get aboard an existing trend - after the new trend has been confirmed by his objective technical indicators - and to remain with the position. For how long? How long is long term? Those are good questions, and, in truth, the answer cannot be dispensed in terms of numbers of weeks, months, or years. The only realistic answer is that the trader must stick with the position for as long as it continues going his way, or until the same technical indicators that signaled him to get aboard the position signal him to close out. Weeks, months, or even years?

成功的交易者跟绝大多数可怜的交易者不同——在客观的技术指标证实新的趋势确实出现之后才上车——而且就一直待在车上。待多久，要多久才算久？这些问题问的很好，事实上，答案不能用几个星期、几个月或几年来回答。唯一切合实际的答案是：只要趋势继续对自己有利，或者是要他上车的相同技术指标发出平仓的信号之前，交易者都必须持有仓位，不管是几个星期，几个月，还是几年！

Absolutely! I have watched successful position-oriented speculators patiently sit with positions for as long as two years, trading every so often to roll over from an expiring month into a more forward position. As an example, lots of savvy long-term operators caught the big short in soybeans when it first signaled on June 11, 1985-over 17 months. And the profit came to some $10,550 (after commissions) per contract. Was it difficult to catch the short? Was it difficult to pick the reversal point 17 months later? Not really, as both the sale and the reversal were signaled by some of the computer trend-following systems on those exact dates. Well, you might note, it can’t be as simple as that-there must be a catch. And you’re right, there is catch. The catch is that the trader must have and utilize a strong degree of patience and discipline in sticking with positions for as long as the market continues to move favorably or until the technical system he is using signals a flip. In fact, the majority of commission house traders who did catch the short soybean trade on June 11 covered shortly thereafter with just a small profit (see Figure 8-2).

一点也没错！我看过以仓位为导向的成功交易者，很有耐心地持有仓位长达两年之久，在整个期间内，不断把快到期的合约换成更远月份的合约。举例来说，1984年7月11日首次出现信号时，很多精明的长线交易者大举做空黄豆，而且一直做空到1985年12月6日——前后时间超过17个月，每份合约的利润高达10550元。抓住做空点很难吗？17个月后抓住反转点很难吗？没那么难，因为有些电脑趋势跟踪系统正好都在上面所说的两个日子里发出了卖出的反转信号。你可能会说，事情没有那么简单——这里面一定有圈套。你说的没错，是有圈套，但是这些圈套正是交易者必须具备和利用强烈的耐心和纪律去渡过的地方，只要市场趋势仍然对自己有利，或在技术系统没有显现反转的信号之前，交易者必须很有耐心和严守纪律，持有仓位。事实上，大多数的经纪行交易者都在7月11日逮住了做空黄豆的机会，不过没多久马上平仓，只赚得蝇头小利。（见图8-2）

图8-2　黄豆（近期货）长期周线　　（文字：做空、平仓）

【Here is an example of an excellent trending position. Some of the computer trading programs signaled short sales on June 11, 1984, and remained short until December 17, 1985, when a new buy signal was generated. The profit on this short position, held for 17 months, exceeded $10,000 per contract. Only a minority of those who made the original sales stayed with the short position for the full move. Most of the original shorts grabbed a quick profit, missing the major portion of this veritable megamove. You didn’t have to be brilliant to have pulled this off-just patient and disciplined.

这是个顺势交易的绝佳例子。有些电脑交易程序发出在7月11日做空的信号，而且一直做空到1985年12月17日，这一天，才有新的买入信号出现。持有这个空头仓17个月的利润是每份合约超过10000元。原先做空的人当中，只有少数人做空到最后一天，大部分人马上获利了结，错过了真正大空头市场的一大段行情。你不必很优秀才能从头赚到尾——只要有耐心和严守纪律就可以了。】

To a high degree, boredom and lack of discipline are the main impediments to successful long-term trading. It is only after an operator has learned to sit patiently with a profitable, with-the-trend position that he will have developed the potential to score significant profits. Unfortunately, and at a very high cost, the average speculator is most likely to display his patience and “sitting power” when he is holding an against-the-trend “losing” position-just the time when good strategy would mandate that he close the losing position to limit his losses.

阻碍长线交易成功的最主要原因是觉得单调乏味和失去纪律。只要交易者学会很有耐心地坐在赢利，顺势的仓位，他就有赚大钱的潜力。很遗憾，一般投机者只在持有逆势的（亏钱）仓位时，才最有可能展现耐心和坐而不动的功夫，当然他们也要为此付出很高的代价。其实，他们应该壮士断腕，马上平掉亏钱的仓位，减少损失。

I learned this lesson for the first time (because we keep relearning it, the longer we play the markets) back in 1960 as a young Merrill Lynch trainee on an orientation trip to Chicago. While spending the day on the floor of the Board of Trade, I wandered away from my group of fellow trainees and somehow “attached” myself to the ample coattails of Juliu Mayer. Mr. Mayer, it turned out, was the acknowledged dean, at the time, of the Chicago grain trade with more than 50 years experience both here and in Europe. I learned much from Mr. Mayer during this and subsequent visits to Chicago. But, most memorably, he taught me that commodity prices, irrespective of either real or perceived fundamentals, we tend to move in the direction of least resistance. This simple concept - and it really is simple, especially when contrasted with the proliferation of complicated and on-line computer programs on which so much technical analysis is based-must be thoroughly understood, both in theory and in application, by anyone who has serious expectations of garnering big money in futures trading.

我第一次尝到这个教训（我们总是一直在学这个教训：我们在市场里面玩得越久，尝到的次数越多）是1960年，我当时很年轻，刚进美林公司，公司派我到芝加哥受训。那时候我们整天都要待在商品交易所的营业厅内，有时我会“不经意”离开其他学员，跟在梅尔的屁股后面跑。后来我才知道，梅尔是当时公认的芝加哥谷物交易的元老，在芝城和欧洲有50多年的经验。这一次和以后几次到芝加哥，我从梅尔身上学到了很多东西。但是我记忆最深的一件事，是他告诉我，不管实际或我们所认为的基本面如何，商品价格通常会往阻力最小的一个方向移动。不管是理论上还是应用上，凡是真正想经由期货交易赚大钱的人，都必须彻底了解这个简单的观念。这个观念真的十分简单，尤其是跟复杂的即时电脑交易系统普及而出现很多的技术分析相比时，更显得简单。

So Mr. Mayer said that commodity prices will tend to move in the direction of least resistance, and he’s observed this phenomenon in over half a century of market involvement. Actually, it may not be a particularly profound observation. The electrician says that electric current will move in the direction of least resistance, and the engineer says that water will move in the direction of least resistance (have you ever seen water run uphill spontaneously?). If you’ve ever had the dubious experience of finding yourself on one of New York City’s subway platforms around the so-called rush hour, you’ll discover that human bodies also move in the direction of least resistance. What Mr. Mayer was describing with this brief statement was that commodity prices tend to move in the direction of the dominant force - as in, more buying than selling pressure (it moves north), and more selling than buying pressure (it moves south). This can be stated in terms of any time interval, from very short term to intermediate to long term. Furthermore, once a major trend develops, it tends to pick up momentum, increasing feeding on its own strength or weekness. In a major bull trend, as the reality of the market strength increasingly dawns on traders, both through their own technical analysis and the margin calls on short positions, their buying to cover shorts and reposition long will tend to overpower the sell orders in the market. Prices will follow the path of least resistance - they will advance. Likewise, during a major bear phase, as the market moves south, it will tend to gain momentum, accelerated by the capitulation of long traders who gradually, albeit reluctantly, dump their losing positions and possibly even take on shorts. And the longer the main body of bulls hang on to their percarious long positions in the face of a major bear market, the harder and farther the market it ultimately going to fall. Their eventual denouement is inevitable, and this is understood and anticipated by professional and trade shorts, who will continue to press the market everytime it appears vulnerable or they sense sell stops at lower levels.

梅尔先生根据半个多世纪的亲身体验和市场观察，发现到我前面所说的那个现象，也就是商品价格总是往阻力最小的一个方向前进。事实上，这也许不算是什么特别深刻的观察。学过电子的都知道，电流是往阻力最小的方向行进，学工程的人都知道，水是往阻力最小的方向流（你看过不假外力，水能够自己往上流吗？）。如果你曾经在上下班高峰时间到纽约地下月台赶搭火车，应该也会发现人体也是往阻力最小的方向移动。梅尔先生这句简短的话，所指的意思是说：商品价格往往会朝支配性力量所引导的方向前进，比如说，如果买盘多于卖盘，价格就会上涨；卖盘多于买盘，价格就会下跌。任何时段内，这句话都正确，不管那是非常短的时间，还是中期到长期。具体说，一旦某个主趋势形成，它会自己积累能量，根据自己的能量加速或减速。比如在大多头趋势中，不管空头交易者是从技术分析看出市场真正的趋势，还是从空头仓的追缴保证金通知书中明白的，总之他们都要赶快平仓，重新建立多头仓。换仓的结果就是造成市场中的卖单减少，也就是说多头市场的能量增加了。价格会沿着阻力最小的途径——就是上涨。同样，在大空头市场中，价格下跌时，也会积累能量。多头交易者即使心不甘情不愿，最终还是要平掉亏钱的仓位，甚至还得做空。这样就为空头市场积累了能量。在大空头市场，当多头持有岌岌可危仓位的时间拖的越久，空头对他们的惩罚越狠，跌势就会越猛，跌幅也会越深。多头的悲惨下场是不可避免的。专业交易者明白这个道理，他们期待这样的机会，当多头疲惫不堪时，或者他们发现多头的卖出止损点更低时，他们就会无情地发动攻击。

The obvious question, then, is how can the speculator measure the dynamic forces underlying buying and selling pressure at any given time to provide him with a clue to the direction of least resistance? This may be the $64 million question of trend analysis - the Holy Grail for the technical trader. Perhaps the best work in this area to date has been published by Wilder in his New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. His discussion of “directional movement” and “relative strength” are articulately presented in terms of both theory and practice and are complete with charts and actual examples. New Concepts serves as the best starting point for any technically oriented trader seeking to study both the theory and the application of the elusive albeit significant concepts involving market dynamics.

很明显的问题是，投机者如何衡量任一时刻买盘和卖盘下面的能量？如何找到线索，如何发现阻力最小的方向？这可能是价值6400万元的趋势分析问题——技术交易者的圣杯。到目前为止，这方面最好的作品也许是怀尔德著作出版的《技术交易系统新观念》。不管是在理论上，还是在实践上，他十分清楚地阐述了“方向性移动”和“相对强势”的观念，而且有一堆图表和实际的例子配合解释。技术导向的交易者，如果想从理论上和实践上研究这个难以捉摸但十分重要的市场动态概念，《技术交易系统新观念》是最好的入门书。

Nearly every speculator has, at one time or another, wondered how the big, successful operators are able to take on huge positions (hundreds or more contracts) and end up enormous winners. Meanwhile, the majority of speculators, holding just small positions, invariably seem to buy or sell at precisely the wrong time, paying dearly for the experience. The salient difference, and this bears contemplation, is that experienced, successful operators can usually decipher when a market is in a trending position (okay to take a with-the-trend position) and when it is in a broad sideways mode (stand aside or play a short-term counter-trend strategy).

几乎每个投机者或早或晚都想过这个问题，那就是成功的交易大户何以能够建立庞大的仓位（数百份合约或更多），最后大赚一笔。与此同时，绝大多数的投机者都只持有很小的仓位，而且老是买错卖错，为这样的经验付出了高昂的代价。两者最显著的差别（这一点值得我们好好想一想），在于有经验，成功的交易者总是能够研判出市场什么时候有趋势（适于建立顺势而为的仓位），什么时候是横向盘整（最好缩手观望，或者逆势交易，短线进出）。

I’ve found this to be the case with my own trading when, on two different occasions, I held about 350 copper contracts and 2 million bushels wheat. For the most part, I suffered far less than during other campaigns when I held far smaller (albeit counter-trend) positions. Haven't we all observed that when your position is in the direction of the trend and you are sitting on profits, you cannot have too large a position; but when you are struggling with a losing, countertrend position, even the smallest line is excessive. Admittedly, the operator who holds the large with-the-trend position position must still contend with recurring technical reactions. But these are to be expected, and he must have sufficient financial and emotional staying power to survive these shakeouts.

我有这方面的经验，在两次不同的场合中，我持有约350份铜期货合约，和200万蒲式耳小麦。很多时候，由于我持有的仓位（虽然是逆势仓位）很小，亏损的金额还是比其它仓位小得多。看出来了吗？当你所建立的仓位正好是顺势的，而且坐拥利润，你的仓位也不能太大；相反如果你持有的是亏损，风雨飘摇中的逆势仓位，那么不管它们多小，都嫌太多。当然了，持有较大顺势仓位的交易者，还是要跟多次发生的技术性回调（反弹）搏斗。不过这是预料中的事，不足为奇，他应该有足够的财力和定力，渡过这些危机动荡的时刻。

If the trend really is your friend-what is trading against the trend? How about this: Trading against the trend is like standing in from (financially speaking) of a speeding express train! So the next time you’re contemplating taking a position or you are in one and are considering either closing it out or possibly adding to it, remember the realistic choice you have: With-the-trend=your friend; against the trend=standing in front of a speeding express train! Which would you choose?

如果趋势真的是你的朋友，那你为什么要逆势交易呢？我们不妨想想：逆势交易等于迎头面对一辆加速驶来的列车！所以下一次你在考虑建立某个仓位时，或本来就有某个仓位，不知道该平掉，还是加仓交易时，不妨换个实际生活中的角度来想：顺势＝你的朋友；逆势＝迎头面对一辆加速驶来的列车！你会怎么选择？

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