深度分析丨Washington urged to do more to support ASEAN
Many observers have no doubts that the United States is ready to take advantage of a key gathering it is hosting this week to drive a wedge between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, and China.
Washington claimed in a statement before the US-ASEAN Special Summit, which is being held on Thursday and Friday, that the US is committed to advancing the building of a free, open, safe, connected and resilient Indo-Pacific region.
The US has been preparing for the summit for a long time, but the early stages did not go as smoothly as it hoped.
The timing of the gathering offers a clue. Washington had earlier announced that the summit would be held on March 28 and 29, but only Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was visiting the US at that time. Later, the White House said the summit would be postponed indefinitely.
ASEAN leaders proposed several dates, but the US repeatedly changed them. Analysts said there were difficulties not only in coordinating the agenda between US and ASEAN leaders, but also over whether the two sides could overcome their differences ahead of the meeting.
The Indo-Pacific the US is dedicated to building might not be in line with the interests of ASEAN.
During the meeting between Biden and Lee on March 29, while the US leader repeatedly referred to the "Indo-Pacific", a geopolitical term Washington coined for its anti-China Indo-Pacific strategy, Lee referred to the "Asia-Pacific", a more neutral geographical term that is frequently used.
ASEAN has always stated that regional cooperation should be inclusive and open, carried out on an equal footing, and serve the common good of people in the region. This stance explains why the US' divisive efforts have met with a lukewarm response from ASEAN members since the administration of former US president Barack Obama proposed its re-pivot to Asia strategy, which ASEAN knows is aimed at integrating it into Washington's strategy.
Liu Chang, a researcher of US studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said that despite initially postponing the summit, the US was in such a hurry to hold the gathering that it subsequently decided on a date regardless of basic diplomatic protocol.
"Since the US badly wants to draw ASEAN countries to its side, which is not easy, it might touch upon some 'pragmatic' topics with ASEAN leaders at the summit," Liu said.
At the 16th East Asia Summit the US hosted via video link on Oct 27, Biden proposed an ambitious Indo-Pacific Economic Framework covering a wide range of emerging and non-traditional economic sectors.
Security cooperation
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has said that the "new economic framework" includes adjusting export controls to "limit exports of 'sensitive' products to China". US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has even publicly declared that the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is "an arrangement independent of China".
As a result, Biden is expected to peddle this framework Indo-Pacific Economic Framework at the summit, which is expected to cover security cooperation between the two sides and may disturb the balance China has struck with ASEAN over the South China Sea.
Kurt Campbell, coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs in the National Security Council, who is an assistant to Biden and a major adviser on Washington's China policy, has urged the US to deepen its cooperation and engagement with ASEAN in an all-around manner, which should not only include economic affairs and diplomacy, but also security.
ASEAN countries are well aware of the costs of "going around the sun to meet the moon", and Lee has warned the US that once it decouples its economy from that of China, the economic costs to Washington will be enormous.
His remarks are a clear demonstration of the stance of not taking sides, and a further reminder of the need for the US to increase its economic input in the Asia-Pacific region. In other words, Southeast Asian nations are looking for an inclusive and positive economic agenda. The summit will by no means be a solo act, with the US preaching its agenda, but an occasion for ASEAN to kick the ball back into Washington's court.
ASEAN and China have further upgraded their economic and trade cooperation within the framework of the newly signed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, agreement. Their collaboration on promoting common development of the region has been ceaseless on the various bilateral and multilateral platforms they have formed since building a dialogue mechanism more than 30 years ago.
For example, take cooperation between ASEAN and the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, whose capital Nanning is the permanent host of the annual China-ASEAN Expo. This bilateral cooperation has gone far beyond the previous small-scale border trade of agricultural produce－entering a new stage that features comprehensive collaboration on trade, industry, talent, technology, governance, education and culture.
▲ Cargo is handled at Qinzhou Port, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. Photo/Xinhua
Wang Xiongchang, mayor of Qinzhou, a major port city in Guangxi, where a China-Malaysia industrial park has prospered over the past decade along with a dramatic increase in trade with Malaysia, said cooperation between the two countries is becoming increasingly extensive and in-depth, ultimately benefiting their people.
"Storytelling needs confidence, and must be supported by tangible economic and trade results－and we have this," Wang said.
Malaysian businessman Nick Koay, chairman of Maycham China Greater Bay, who has invested in China for more than a decade, said ASEAN and China have engaged in economic and trade cooperation for many years. "The RCEP policy, combined with the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, will be more conducive to economic and trade cooperation between the two sides," he said.
Lei Xiaohua, a Southeast Asia studies researcher at the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, said the RCEP's importance lies not only in promoting the opening up of national markets, expanding the scale of intra-regional trade, and upgrading industrial and value chains. More crucially, it is about accelerating integration of economic and trade rules and mechanisms to realize the structural and paradigm shift in regional economic cooperation.
On the other hand, after the US withdrew from the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, its alternative, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, has remained vague, making it difficult to seize regional economic leadership.
Moreover, as some experts point out, ASEAN countries' cautious approach to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework stems from shared concerns that it may undermine ASEAN coherence and disrupt the regional balance that has witnessed rapid development in recent decades. The experts maintain that the US' attention to ASEAN will only be fleeting.
Better position
The US has sent its senior officials to ASEAN countries numerous times since late last year, but all these visits failed to sow discord in the region. The Biden administration should now be aware that unlike the European Union, ASEAN is in a better position to maintain its strategic autonomy－evidenced by its refusal to join the US' "sanctions club" against Russia over the Ukraine crisis.
The EU's experience after surrendering its autonomy to the US is also a reminder of the price it has paid for doing so.
Ge Hongliang, an ASEAN studies researcher at Guangxi Minzu University, does not think the Biden administration can create a honeymoon period for US-ASEAN relations, despite Washington's high hopes of achieving this.
ASEAN was ignored during the administration of Donald Trump. The U-turn taken by the Biden administration in its attitude toward ASEAN has no foundation on the ASEAN side for a lack of mutual trust, Ge said.
"As long as conflicts between ASEAN's pursuit of 'centrality' in the region and the US' obsession with building its leadership in the Southeast Asia cannot be resolved, the honeymoon period will continue to be a daydream for the Biden administration," Ge added.
"ASEAN wants the US to work with China to manage and control risks, while reducing uncertainties to ensure the region's safety and stability."
ASEAN fully respects China acting as ballast for regional stability and development. If the bloc refuses to decide between the US and Russia, how can Washington count on it to choose between the US and China?
Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin has said that China's stance on attempts by the US to pull ASEAN to its side is clear and consistent－the Asia-Pacific region on the whole enjoys peace, stability and good development momentum, which should be cherished by all parties.
The region is also a common home for cooperation and development, not a chessboard for a game between major countries, Wang said, adding that ASEAN countries are players in promoting regional development and prosperity, not "pawns" in geopolitical competition.
As former colonies of the West, countries in the region, including China, share painful memories of being bullied and exploited by foreign powers, and some have paid a heavy price for not only being backward but also for being victims playing into the hands of foreign forces' divide-and-rule ambitions, even after winning their independence.
This is why they cherish their high-speed growth and stable development over the past three decades, and their common historical and cultural bonds give them common ground to settle their internal disputes and differences, promoting the formation of a community of shared future in the region.
As Wang Wenbin said, it is hoped that the US can heed Asia-Pacific countries' common calls for peace, stability and cooperation, and respect their freedom to choose their own political systems and development path, as well as their historical cultural values, which serve as the foundation for regional development.
Observers said Washington should do more to implement its promise to support ASEAN's centrality in the region, and also respect the bloc's principles of settling differences through open and inclusive negotiations.
As victims of the Cold War and "hot wars" over the past century, the region naturally shuns the Cold War mentality of the US and Washington's attempts to form cliques at the cost of regional unity and development.
Luo Liang, an assistant researcher of Southeast Asia at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said ASEAN also fears that the US is building cliques in the bloc, as Washington is taking advantage of the South China Sea disputes between China and some ASEAN countries to divide members nations into different camps and treat them accordingly.
"The US' building of the AUKUS partnership with the United Kingdom and Australia, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, with India, Australia and Japan actually heightens ASEAN concerns that it will do the same to split the bloc from within," Luo said.
记者： 李洋 张莉
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