Bilingual·Foreign Business｜技术是为了让人类超越“更好”

大家好！“外企头条”栏目又跟大家见面的了，今天我们推出诺基亚总裁苏立发表的署名文章：《技术是为了让人类超越“更好”Technology for the “Greater Good”.

请看详细报道↓↓↓

技术可以为人类带来什么好处？

What good is technology?

因为有了先进技术的存在，我们才有更多的时间去做那些只有人类才能做的事情，这正是技术带给人类的最大价值——它让我们可以享受生活、从事创新和生产活动。

I believe technology serves us best when it gives us more time to do things that are uniquely human. This includes activities that are enjoyable, creative, and productive.

对于国家和社会而言，技术的“好处”通常可以转化成经济术语，比如生产率、业务增长率等等。

For nations and societies, the “good” or benefit of technology is often expressed in economic terms, in measures such as workplace productivity and business growth.

随着人类逐步进入第四次工业革命，我们所知的生活正在向数字化转型，新时代随之而来的潜在利益和风险也正在被各方热议。无论是在达沃斯，还是其他地方，这都是我们关 42 34979 42 14987 0 0 3672 0 0:00:09 0:00:04 0:00:05 3672注的焦点。

As we move into the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the digital transformation of life as we know it, the potential benefits and risks of this new era are in ongoing discussion, in Davos and elsewhere.

第四次工业革命会实现初衷吗？它真的能成为推动生产力增长、经济增长和企业成功的巨大引擎吗？

Will the Fourth Industrial Revolution deliver on its promises? Is it simply hype, or will it be a massive engine driving productivity gains, economic growth, and business success?

历史教训

Lessons of the past

诺基亚贝尔实验室研究人员分析了1875年至2015年间美国劳动生产率的历史数据，并对第四次工业革命的潜在影响进行了模拟和预测。

Nokia Bell Labs researchers have analyzed historical data from previous industrial revolutions to model and forecast the potential impact of the next one.

第一次工业革命是被铁和蒸汽机引燃的时代；第二次工业革命由电力、钢铁、化学品和通信推动。这两次工业革命都带来了生产力飞跃式的发展。

During both the First Industrial Revolution (which was fueled by iron and steam engines) and the Second (which was powered by electricity, steel, chemicals, and telecommunications), productivity boomed.

19世纪70年代左右开始的这两次革命，将人类文明带入了黄金世纪。特别是在20世纪40和50年代，美国和其他地方从中获得了巨大的收益。

Starting around 1870, these two revolutions sustained a Golden Century of progress. The 1940s and 1950s in particular, brought massive gains in the United States and elsewhere.

此后发生了什么？

Then what happened?

第三次工业革命到来了，人类迎来了信息时代。大量改变世界的新事物涌现出来，例如计算机、互联网、移动通信等等。

The Third Industrial Revolution arrived, ushering in the Information Age. Massive, world-changing innovations emerged in computing, the internet, mobile communications, and much more.

然而，生产力发展却没有再次出现上升趋势。事实上，自20世纪70年代以来，生产率的增长就已经下降到了前100年的三分之一左右。

Yet instead of revving up again, the productivity engine sputtered. In fact, since 1970, productivity growth has fallen to roughly one-third the rate of the previous 100 years.

如果说在过去的半个世纪里，我们所做的一切艰苦工作、创新和技术投资都没有带来生产力方面的回报，这对第四次工业革命中已经开展的大规模基础设施投资来说意味着什么？

If all the hard work, innovation, and investments in technology over the past half century have failed to pay off in productivity, what does this mean for the huge investments already taking place in the Fourth Industrial Revolution infrastructure?

悲观主义者可能会说，我们应该转变投资方向，把钱投在其他领域。

A pessimist would say we should skip it and put our money elsewhere.

但我是一个乐观主义者。

But I am an optimist.

我绝对相信，这不仅仅是一场技术革命，而且还是一场生产力的革命。

I absolutely believe that we are on the cusp of not just a technological revolution, but a productivity revolution.

它将为世界各地的人民带来利益，使我们的地球能够可持续地发展，并为各行各业孕育出新的发展机会。

It will bring benefits for people everywhere, make our planet more sustainable, and provide new opportunities for businesses of all kinds.

幸运的是，诺基亚贝尔实验室的研究佐证了这一观点。

Fortunately, Nokia Bell Labs’ research concurs with this view.

革命发生的根源在此

The causes of revolution

我们分析了是什么样的原因让19世纪70年代到20世纪70年代成为黄金世纪，结果显而易见：正是四种基础技术为发展提供了保障——能源、交通、健康、卫生以及通信。

In analyzing what made the Golden Century of 1870 to 1970 possible, it becomes clear that four physical infrastructure technologies provided the underlying foundation for growth: energy, transportation, health and sanitation, and communication.

这些基础技术本身就非常重要，另外还有两个因素对于加速发展也至关重要。第一，在当时，每种技术的普及程度以及应用已经几乎快要达到饱和。

These fundamental technologies were important on their own, but two other factors were essential for accelerating growth. The first was when the diffusion – or adoption – of each technology was widespread enough to reach a tipping point.

第二要归因于网络效应，也就是说四种技术需要协同工作才能成为推动生产力发展的动力。只有当四种技术都广泛普及，才能实现生产力的快速增长。

The second was a network effect: the technologies needed to work in tandem to drive growth. Only when all four technologies were widely diffused did fast growth happen.

接下来，我们对当今技术进行了研究，并发现了与黄金世纪的四个基础技术相一致的新兴数字等价物：

Next, the research looked at today’s technologies. It found emerging digital equivalents that align with the four technology foundations of the Golden Century:

数字能源：将智能电网和智能电表结合在统一平台上，使新型与传统能源的生产和需求实现动态匹配。

Digital energy: combining smart power grids and smart meters into platforms that dynamically match energy generation and demand from both new and traditional sources.

数字运输：自主运送人员和货物，跨越海洋、天空和陆地。

Digital transport: moving people and goods across oceans, skies, and land autonomously.

数字健康：从任何地方都能远程启动互联医疗保健方案。

Digital health: remotely enabling connected health care from anywhere.

数字通信：连接数十亿人和物，让他们以新的方式进行互动。

Digital communication: connecting billions of people and things, allowing them to interact in new ways.

我们还要补充一点，第五个基础技术——数字化生产。它将带来从集中式批量生产到分布式本地化生产的范式转变，将边缘云计算和3D打印相结合，以近乎实时的方式创造商品。

A fifth foundational technology – digital production – was added to these. It will bring a paradigm shift, from centralized mass production to distributed, localized production, combining edge cloud computing and 3D printing to create goods in near real time.

对未来增长的预期

Forecast for growth

诺基亚贝尔实验室计算了这些数字技术何时能够达到推动发展的临界点，结果表明，在2028年和2033年之间的某个时间点，美国的生产力将大幅提高30％到35％。

By calculating when these digital technologies could reach their tipping points and by applying historical formulas, Nokia Bell Labs has projected a significant productivity jump, as much as 30% to 35% in the U.S., starting at some point between 2028 and 2033.

这与20世纪50年代的涨幅相似，并可能为美国经济增加约2.8万亿美元的收入。根据预测，中国、印度和其他国家也会出现类似的增长。

This is a similar leap to the 1950s and could add approximately $2.8 trillion to the U.S. economy. Similar gains are anticipated in India, China, and other nations.

广泛部署的高容量、低延迟5G网络是未来数字基础设施的主要催化剂。

The widespread deployment of high-capacity, low-latency 5G networks is a major catalyst to the digital infrastructure of the future.

这离我们并不遥远。

This reality is not far off.

今年我们将继续进行广泛的试验，并可能在2019年实现全面的5G商用部署。美国、中国、韩国和日本在5G试验中处于领先地位。

Wide trials are taking place this year that could lead to full commercial 5G deployments in 2019. The U.S., China, Korea, and Japan are at the forefront of these efforts.

5G和云技术将支撑并加速产业数字化发展。行业数字化也将为各个经济领域创造新的商机，从医疗到交通、能源等等。

5G and cloud technologies will underpin and accelerate the digitalization of industries. In turn, this will create opportunities across nearly every segment of the economy, from health care to transport, energy, and beyond.

电信公司正在向5G转型，更加专注于软件定义的网络和云计算，在转型过程中为这些行业提供服务的运营商也将迎来巨大的商机。

Telecommunication companies that take the path to 5G now, and focus on software-defined networking and the cloud, have a massive opportunity to benefit from serving these industries during their transformations.

就像人类曾经经历的工业革命一样，我们既会收获经济效益，也会面对新的挑战。

As in each of the previous industrial revolutions, such gains come with economic trade-offs and elicit new challenges.

其中技能发展的问题显而易见，随着劳动力的转变，技能发展究竟该如何调整。

An obvious concern is the implication for skills development as the workforce transforms.

正如联合国宽带委员会报告中所述，无论是政府间的跨国合作还是在国家内部，相关政策都亟待出台。

Policy work is also urgently needed, as the UN Broadband Commission reported, both between governments and within countries.

政府主要为不同的经济部门提供合作框架，以帮助各部门找到数字化的发展机会，实现数字化的最大价值。

It must determine how the public sector can help identify and realize the benefits of digitalization, primarily by providing a framework for collaboration across different sectors of the economy.

政府、技术公司和新兴数字产业之间的相互协作是实现第四次工业革命巨大潜力的重要基石。

Such work between governments, technology companies, and the emerging digital industries is an essential building block for realizing the massive potential of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

第四次工业革命的潜力不仅包括经济方面，还包括个人和社会利益：

This includes not just the economic potential, but also the personal and social benefits:

让生活变得更美好，让地球资源得到保护，给予人们更多的时间和自由与人交流或者享受生活。

making life better, preserving our planet’s resources, and giving people more time and freedom to connect with each other and the things they enjoy.

这就是我们为什么说技术可以让人类生活超越“更好”。

After all, these are the greater good that technology is meant to serve.

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编辑 / 李静

来源 / 经济日报（记者陈颐、朱琳）