Tiangong-1, China's first space station, is expected to either burn up in the atmosphere or crash down to Earth within the next 72 hours.

Exactly where and when the 8.5 tonne space laboratory will land is currently unknown.

The BBC predicts Tiangong-1's reentry window will center at around 7.25 am on Monday, April 2 (CST). That window is seven hours off in both directions, meaning the space station could crash between the middle of the night tonight and early tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, analysis from the Beijing Aerospace Control Center has extended that window to April 4.

Tiangong-1 in space.

However, it's highly unlikely to cause any ground damage. According to an article recently published by the China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSEO), Tiangong-1 is predicted to mostly burn up and disintegrate as it reenter's the Earth's atmosphere, with any remaining debris expected to land in the ocean.

"There is no need for people to worry about its re-entry into the atmosphere,"

the article reassured. "It won't crash to the Earth fiercely, as in sci-fi movie scenarios, but will look more like a shower of meteors."

The article added that during a meteor shower the chances of a person being hit by the 1,000 to 20,000 meteorites falling to Earth per hour are slim. In fact, the chances of being hit by one larger than 200 grams is about one-700 millionth. 

Launched back in 2011, Tiangong-1 — also known as "Heavenly Palace" — was originally expected to come back down to Earth in a controlled crash in 2013, however the length of the mission was extended.

The Tiangong-1 launched in 2011.

Subject to both manned and unmanned experiments, the station welcomed two three-man crews aboard during its time in space including Liu Yang, China's first female astronaut, in 2012.

By March of 2016 however, a senior official of the manned space program revealed that authorities had lost control of the space station.

The UN was originally notified of an expected reentry between October 2017 and April 2018. The rogue station's return to our planet has since accelerated as it has found itself in the more dense reaches of the atmosphere.

While the majority of the space station will burn up upon its descent through the atmosphere, some parts may come crashing down, astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told the Guardian back in 2016.

"You really can't steer these things," he said back in 2016. "Even a couple of days before it re-enters we probably won't know better than six or seven hours, plus or minus, when it's going to come down."

Without knowing when exactly it will come down, he continued to explain, meant that knowing where it will come down also remains unknown.

The usual protocol for seeing space stations, satellites and the like back down to Earth finds the spacecraft directed to a place called Point Nemo - the most remote place on Earth.

Known as a spaceship cemetery, the region is a 2.5 mile-deep spot in the ocean where the controlled spacecraft are landed. The location of this place remains 3,000 miles off of the eastern coast of New Zealand and 2,000 miles north of Antarctica, all in all around 1,450 nautical miles from the nearest slice of land.

Between 1971 and 2016, over 263 "burials" have taken place at Point Nemo.

This is not the first time control has been lost with a spacecraft. In 1971, Russian nuclear satellite Kosmos 954 crashed into the north of Canada. Only a year later, parts of the US' Skylab fell down in the Australian outback.

But it’s merely a guessing game of when and where Tiangong-1 will turn up. This helpful chart from the BBC narrows it down:

[Images via Phys.org, BBC]

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