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Femorning Daily 13.11.2016

2016-11-13 财秘 财经早餐


1、方正证券任泽平认为,经过2014-2015年的货币放水刺激,2016年1-3季度经济小周期复苏,PMI和PPI同步回升,但是随着政策基调从稳增长转向抑泡沫防风险,以及地产汽车销量、信贷社融等经济先行指标回落,经济在2016年四季度到2017年一季度步入轻型滞涨,即经济先行指标回落而物价惯性上冲,房地产调控和政策收紧对中上游行业的负面影响可能在2017年第二季度前后开始传导。

FOUNDER SECURITIES Ren Zeping believes that, after the monetary sluicing stimulus in 2014 and 2015, the economy had small-cycle recovery in the first three quarters of 2016, PMI and PPI rose simultaneously, but with the policy tone turning from steady growth to anti-foam and anti-risk, and real estate sales, vehicle sales , credit, social financing and other leading economic indicators going down, the economy will enter a light stagflation period from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017, which means the leading economic indicators going down and prices inertially rushing up, the negative effects of real estate regulation and policy tightening on the middle and upper reaches of industry may begin to propagate around the second quarter of 2017.


2、海通证券姜超认为,近期大宗商品价格持续暴涨,将推动四季度通胀上行,而央行在三季度货政报告中提及当前物价上行的压力,且强调要抑制资产泡沫和防范经济金融风险。此外央行还提到准备金工具可能形成资产负债表效应且信号意义较强,所以降准受到的制约较多。再加上美国年末加息窗口渐近,人民币持续承压,预计短期内货币政策难以宽松。

HAITONG SECURITIES Jiang Chao believes that the recent surge in bulk commodity prices will push the inflation going up in the fourth quarter, while THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA (PBC) mentioned the current upward pressure on prices in the third quarter monetary policy implementation report and stressed the need to curb asset bubbles and prevent economic and financial risks. In addition, PBC also mentioned that the reserve tools may form a balance sheet effect and the signal sense is relatively strong, so there are more restrictions on RRR cuts. Coupled with asymptotic window of US interest rate hike at the end of the year, there is continued pressure on the RMB, it is expected that the monetary policy is difficult to loose in the short-term.


3、上证报消息,从业内人士处获悉,为落实房地产调控工作,合理控制业务增速,有效缓释行业集中度偏高的风险,近期银监会下发通知拟对房价上涨过快的16个热点城市银行业金融机构进行专项检查。

Shanghai Securities News learned from industry insiders that in order to implement the real estate regulation and control, control business growth and effectively release the industry risk of relatively high concentration, CHINA BANKING REGULATORY COMMISSION (CBRC) recently issued a notice, intending to carry out special inspections to the banking financial institutions in 16 hot cities whose housing prices rose too fast.


4、华夏时报消息,互联网金融风险专项整治的“现场检查取证”正在全国进行,这也是专项整治的第二阶段,以作为对平台“清理整顿”的重要依据。目前部分平台已经完成了现场检查、取证,尤其是深圳的平台检查非常严格,一些后台数据都被调取,据称这主要是为了检查平台自融或标的真伪。

CHINA TIMES news, the "on-site inspection and evidence collection" for the special rectification of the internet financial risks is being carried out nation wide, it is the second phase of the special rectification which will be used as the important basis for the "clean-up" of platforms. The on-site inspection and evidence collection of some platforms has been completed, especially in Shenzhen, there was a very strict platform inspection, some backstage data were retrieved, which was said mainly for checking the authenticity of the platform self-financing or subjects.


5、中证报消息,近期一系列监管政策约束下,T+0地下工厂试图通过复杂交易结构的设计由“地下”走到“地上”。在多次变形过程中,收益互换始终扮演着关键角色。业内人士透露,收益互换是T+0团队借券的重要手段,在T+0地下工厂阳光化中发挥着重要作用。同时,T+0团队借此变相实现高杠杆交易值得关注。

China Securities Journal news, under the recent series of regulatory policies, the T+0 underground factories are trying to move from "underground" to "ground" through the design of complex transaction structures. In the process of multiple transformations, the return swap is always playing a key role. Industry insiders said that the return swap is an important means for T+0 teams’ securities borrowing and plays an important role for T+0 underground factories to come into sunlight. At the same time, it is worth paying attention that the T+0 teams can achieve high leverage transactions in disguise by this.


6、证券时报消息,11月11日,国内商品期货夜盘开盘之后,多个品种延续暴涨行情,焦煤、铁矿石等黑色系商品迅速升至涨停。但不到1个小时之后,多个期货品种合约仓位发生异动。由涨停到跌停,就在一瞬之间。PTA、橡胶、甲醇、沥青、锡、镍、棉花等品种纷纷走出类似惊天反转行情。

Securities Times news, on November 11th, after the domestic commodity futures opened for the night, a number of varieties continued to soar, coking coal, iron ore and other black commodity series quickly rose to the limit. But less than an hour later, a number of futures varieties’ contract positions changed abnormally. From the daily limit-up to limit-down, it was all in a moment. PTA, rubber, methanol, asphalt, tin, nickel, cotton and other varieties all had a similar shocking market reversal.


7、21世纪经济报道消息,中国的火箭正试图从全球商业市场中分得一杯羹。随着商业领域的增长潜力,加之国家政策的鼓励,原本由政府主导的航天产业,正在逐步走向大众,逐渐变成一门真金白银的生意。这股商业航天运动,进场的有火箭商业化运作的国家队,有资本雄厚的上市公司,也有海归极客组建的民间团队。

21st Century Business Herald news, China's rockets are trying to grab a slice of the global business market. With the growth potential in the business sector, coupled with being encouraged by national policies, the original government-led space industry is gradually moving toward the public and has gradually become a real money business. This commercial aerospace movement, the participants include the national team of rocket commercial operation, the listed companies with bountiful capitals, and also the civil team formed by the geeks coming back from abroad.


8、华夏时报消息,海航集团从地方航空公司起家,经历数次调整确立了目前以航空旅游、实业、资本、物流以及生态科技五大板块为核心的多元化发展方向,从其在产业布局和并购活动的特征来看,也确实在绝大多数时候围绕着核心产业所展开,但从企业本身的业务方向来看,其早已经脱开了航空业。

CHINA TIMES news, HNA Group started from local airlines, and has undergone several adjustments to establish a diversified development direction centered on five major sectors of aviation tourism, industry, capital, logistics and ecological science and technology, from the aspects of industrial layout and M & A activity features, it is indeed centered around the core businesses for the vast majority of the time, but from the aspect of the business of the enterprise itself, it has long been out of the aviation industry.


9、证券日报消息,为更好地服务广大用户,向市场提供更为完善的收益率曲线体系,中证指数有限公司定于2016年11月14日起发布地方政府债收益率曲线,并停止发布央票收益率曲线。新增的地方政府债收益率曲线,样本券为地方政府自主发行和偿还的地方政府债券(不含地方政府定向承销发行置换债券)。

SECURITIES DAILY news, in order to better serve customers, to provide a more complete and excellent market yield curve system, CHINA SECURITIES INDEX CO., LTD is scheduled to release local government bond yield curve from November 14th, 2016 onwards, and stop issuing Central Bank Bill Yield Curve. For the newly added local government bond yield curve, the sample vouchers are the local government bonds issued and repaid independently by the local governments (excluding replacement bonds directed underwritten and issued by local governments).


10、国际货币基金组织发表声明称,IMF执行董事会批准向埃及提供120亿美元贷款,以帮助埃及摆脱经济困境。首批27.5亿美元贷款将立即拨付,余下部分将根据IMF定期评估结果在未来3年内分批发放。这一贷款项目有望帮助埃及改善外汇市场运转,降低财政赤字和债务,加强埃及社会安全网,从而实现宏观经济稳定,并推动包容性增长。

International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a statement that IMF Executive Board approved to provide 12 billion US dollars loan to Egypt to help Egypt out of the economic difficulties. The first batch of $ 2.75 billion loan will be disbursed immediately and the remainders will be disbursed in batches over the next three years based on IMF regular assessments. The loan program is expected to help Egypt improve its foreign exchange market, reduce fiscal deficits and debt and strengthen Egypt’s social security network in order to achieve macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth.


11、财经早餐今天的回复关键词是:房价。各地限购政策已出台一月有余,想知道哪些城市房价“死灰复燃”吗?财经早餐特别统计了多个主要城市楼市实时价量数据。点击公众号界面左下按钮,文字或者语音回复房价即可。

Femorning’s keyword for replying today is housing price. The purchase restriction policies in various regions have been introduced for more than a month, would you like to know which city’s housing price "resurged"? Femorning provides you with real-time price and volume data for a number of cities. All you need to do is to click on the button in the lower left of our Wechat interface, reply housing price by text or voice.



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财经早餐今天的回复关键词是:房价。各地限购政策已出台一月有余,想知道哪些城市房价“死灰复燃”吗?财经早餐特别统计了多个主要城市楼市实时价量数据。点击公众号界面左下按钮,文字或者语音回复房价即可。




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