2017年11月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数发布

一、指数概览

2017年11月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得30.2，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为30.2%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升0.9个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的增加。

NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年11月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的增加。科技投入指数从今年6月起显示出较强的增长趋势，但10月开始出现显著回落，本月继续小幅下降，指数录得29.1。资本投入指数近半年波动较大，2017年9月指数有较大的回落，10月回升，本月继续回升至31.4，环比上升4。劳动力投入指数仍然平稳发展，本月有小幅下降，指数录得29.9（图2）。 

劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.1，1.4，和-0.3个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2017年11月NEI变化的贡献值为1（图3）。

分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年11月为总指数贡献了11.6个百分点；本月名次上升较快的行业为节能与环保业和生物医药产业，分别贡献率为3.9、4.0个百分点，位列第三、第二名；高端装备制造产业贡献率排名下降最多，从上月的第二名下降至本月第七名，贡献率为1.0个百分点（图4）。

三、新经济就业

2017年11月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月有较大的提升，为每月10122元，较上月增长172元，达到有史以来最高值（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。

2017年11月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例有所下降，为29.2%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重略有下降，为30.6%。这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平基本不变。2017年11月新经济入职工资“溢价”为4.8%，高于上月的4.4%（图6）。近半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价总体低于上半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价。

四、制造业企业吸纳就业情况

上个月的报告中给出了不同规模和不同资本劳动占比的制造业企业对劳动力的吸纳作用变化，我们发现，与2016年相比，2017年更多的劳动力涌入了更大规模的企业和资本劳动占比更高的企业，这与新经济形势下中国要素禀赋变化要求是相反的。

本月我们继续在这个话题上进行深挖。图7计算了不同规模企业的劳动工资增长情况，我们发现，与2016年相比，规模越小的企业工资上涨越快，规模在95百分位以上的企业的劳动工资甚至出现下降，降幅为9.9%。在图8我们发现，不同资本劳动比的企业劳动力工资也有显著趋势，轻资产的企业的劳动力工资比起重资产企业更高，按资产劳动比将企业分为从低到高20个档次规模，资产劳动比最低10档企业劳动力工资比资产劳动比最高10档企业的劳动力工资平均高7.4%，但增长中我们不能找到和图7类似的现象。

图7、图8结合上一期报告的结论，说明目前大规模企业和重资产企业在边际劳动生产率保持较低水平，甚至持续降低的前提下，持续加大劳动力的吸纳，这可能会造成资源的进一步扭曲。

五、新增公司占比情况

使用新增企业数据，我们可以对各行业新增企业占总新增企业比重进行监测，见图9。

排名上升的行业包括以下几类——建材，从去年11月的第24名上升至2017年11月的第12名，占比上升72.4%，是本月排名和占比上升最多的行业；建筑工程，从去年11月的第22名上升至2017年11月的第14名，占比上升43.5%；建筑，从去年11月的第20名上升至2017年11月的第16名，占比上升38.4%；劳务，从去年11月的第23名上升至2017年11月的第19名，占比上升36.7%；工程，从去年11月的第6名上升至2017年11月的第5名，占比上升13.4%；餐饮，从去年11月的第14名上升至2017年11月的第13名，占比上升11.1%。此外，文化、服务和信息行业的排名也有所上升。

排名下降的行业包括以下几类——销售，从2016年11月的第10名下降至2017年11月的第17名，占比下降22.6%，是本月排名和占比下降最多的行业；农业，从2016年11月的第16名下降至2017年11月的第21名，占比下降0.4%；物流，从去年11月的第18名下降为第24名，占比下降9.5%；电子商务，从2016年11月的第12名下降至2017年11月的第15名，占比下降15.7%；贸易，从2016年11月的第3名下降至2017年11月的第4名，占比下降17.8%；汽车，从2016年11月的第9名下降至第10名，占比下降9.3%。除此之外，教育、文化传媒、房地产、传播和咨询行业的排名也有所下降。

六、城市新经济排名

2017年11月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、北京、广州、杭州、南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

图11计算了2017年4月到2017年11月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为上海、北京、杭州、南京、厦门。

更多咨询敬请联络:

万事达卡

大中华区公共关系副总经理 吴焕宇
电话：[phone]
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财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆                   

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电邮：[e-mail]

公关总监 马玲                        

电话：[phone]        
电邮：[e-mail]

BBD（数联铭品）

BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话：[phone]
电邮：[e-mail]

版权声明

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

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November 2017

Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index

Overview

In November 2017, the Mastercard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 30.2, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 30.2% of overall economic input activities that month, up 0.9 ppts from October (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the increase of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors. 

Primary Inputs

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The rise in the November NEI reading came from the increase of capital inputs (Chart 2). Technology input index showed strong growth trend since June, but declined in October. It further declined in November, coming in at 29.1. Capital investment fluctuated widely in the recent half year. After sharply declining in September and rebounding in October, it continued to rise to 31.4, with 4.0 MoM increase. Labor input index remained stable with slightly decrease to 29.9.     

Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, 1.4, and -0.3 ppts, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weights, the net NEI change was a 1.0 ppts increase from October (Chart 3).  

Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 11.6 ppts to NEI. Energy Conservation& Environmental Protection and Biotech were industries with relatively faster growth in November, contributing 3.9 and 4.0 ppts and ranking the third and second, respectively. Advanced Equipment Manufacturing’s contribution came seventh from second, the fastest drop in ranking, contributing 1.0 ppts in November (Chart 4). 

New Economy Employment 

In November 2017, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,122 per month, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 9,950 and reaching the highest level since 2016 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands. 

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 29.2% of total hiring in November, lower than the previous month’s 29.4%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy sectors decreased slightly to 30.6%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy remained stable compared to national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 4.8% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, increasing from 4.4% in October (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy was lower than the first half year generally.

Jobs created by industrial enterprises above designated size

We showed the recruitment percentage of enterprises of different sizes and capital-to-labor ratios in October, respectively. We found that the enterprises with higher revenues or higher capital-to-labor ratios absorbed more new employees in 2017 than they did in 2016, which was inconsistent with higher demand of labor old economy to new economy transitions.

We further explored this in November. Chart 7 showed the comparison of average salaries across industrial enterprises. Compared to 2016, statistics showed that average salaries in small enterprises rose faster and average salaries in large companies were even declining by 9.9%. Average salaries in enterprises with different capital-to-labor ratios diverged. Industrial enterprises with light capital offered higher average salaries than capital intensive ones. If we divided all industrial enterprise into two halves by capital-to-labor ratio, the average salaries in capital light half were 7.4% higher than that of capital intensive half. But we did not observe similar pattern in terms of salary change from 2016 to 2017.

When we combined job creation numbers in October and November, we noticed that industrial enterprises with large scale and high capital-to-labor ratio were experiencing declining marginal labor productivities. In this case, more job creation might leads to further misallocation of resources.

Decomposition of New Established Enterprises

We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sub-sectors (Chart 9).

Ranking up sub-sectors (from November 2016 to November 2017) include the following. Materials (No.24 to No.12, 72.4% increase in proportion, the fastest growth sector in terms of ranking in November), Architectural Engineering (No.22 to No.14, 43.5% increase in proportion), Construction (No.20 to No.16, 38.4% increase in proportion), Labor (No.23 to No.19, 36.7% increase in proportion), Engineering (No.6 to No.5, 13.4% increase in proportion), Catering (No.14 to No.13, 11.1% increase in proportion). In addition, Culture, Service and Information saw a ranking up as well.

Ranking down sub-sectors (from November 2016 to November 2017) include the following. Sales (No.10 to No.17, 22.6% decrease in proportion, the largest drop this month), Agriculture (No.16 to No.21, 0.4% decrease in proportion), Logistics (No.18 to No.24, 9.5% decrease in proportion), E-commerce (No.12 to No.15, 15.7% decrease in proportion), Trade (No.3 to No.4, 17.8% decrease in proportion), Automobile (No.9 to No.10, 9.3% decrease in proportion). The other ranking down sub-sectors were Education, Media, Real Estate, Communication and Consulting.

City Rankings of the New Economy

Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between April 2017 and November 2017. The top five cities were Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Xiamen.

For further information please contact:

MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications 
Tel：[phone]
Email：[e-mail]

Caixin Insight Group 
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：[phone]
Emails：[e-mail]

Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：[phone]
Email：[e-mail]

BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：[phone]
Emails：[e-mail]

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

About MasterCard

MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

About BBD (Business Big Data)

BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.